Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Offensive Defense

Throughout the Twins mini-dynasty, we all knew them as a pitching-defense team with just enough offense to carry them through the rotation’s rough patches. Sometimes it was frustrating to watch them choose more talented glovesmen over hitters who probably offered more total value to the team, but nobody ever complained that the team was actually bad defensively. I guess the tradition probably goes back to Tom Kelly and Andy Macphail, as Minnesota never really transitioned out of the quick and nimble turf era since they continued playing fully half of their games on artificial surfaces. Tim Laudner won a World Series ring with a .190 batting average because he was a good defender. The team was bearish on both Todd Walker and David Ortiz, both eventual starters on a World Champion, because they did not play enough defense. More recently, Doug Mientkiewicz held his job at 1B over Justin Morneau for months and even years longer than was justifiable for no reason other than his agility and ball-picking. By winning three straight division titles, the Twins legitimated their strategy, proving that preventing runs is every bit as important as scoring them and finding a different path to success than the bombs away approach in the AL East. The problem with the pitching-defense focus is that it requires both pitching and defense, and when one starts to slip, the other becomes painfully exposed. The Twins trouble preventing runs this season exemplifies how bad a pitching staff can look when the defense behind it stops catching the balls put into play. Any observer can see the Twins defensive struggles by tuning into a couple of games each week or by looking at a stat sheet that shows them near the bottom of the league in every relevant defensive category. Today, I want to ponder that conundrum a little more to find out who and what are the culprits.

Defense is the one facet of baseball where every player influences other players on the field. At the plate, the ability to get on base in front of a teammate or to offer lineup “protection” is valuable, but limited in its applicability to that teammate’s ability to hit. On defense, though, there is a much greater domino effect; a great shortstop can cover ground for a weak third baseman or up the middle, and a good center fielder mitigates the damages of all-bat players on the corners. Conversely, a bad shortstop forces his fellow infielders to cover more ground, putting increased pressure on everyone, and the same goes for the outfielders. For these reasons, small personnel changes can have a big impact on a team’s defense, such as the addition of Scott Podsednik to the White Sox last year, turning an average defensive outfield into possibly the best in the game by letting Roward shade towards right and letting Jermaine Dye’s strong arm outweigh his limited mobility. The Twins seem to have gone in the opposite direction this year, moving back from the top or the middle of the back in team defense to the very bottom. Statistically, the Twins are far and away the worst at turning batted balls into outs, converting only 64.7% of their opportunities. The differences between the Twins and the second-to-last Pittsburgh Pirates is equal to the difference between Pittsburgh and 14th place Atlanta. I knew the defense was struggling when I watched the infielders miss balls they can usually play, but I had no idea the problem was so overwhelming. No wonder the BABIP has been so high and the pitchers’ ERAs have been so ridiculous.

Without looking at the stats, there are a few problems that stand out defensively. Luis Castillo has won Gold Gloves, cementing his reputation as a solid defender, but his positioning has been off coming to the American League. More troubling and difficult to fix is the problem he has shown getting balls deep in the hole on turf; his bad legs are a well documented problem and the fraction of a second he loses on the faster surface combined with his slower start from injuries yields a far less effective defensive second baseman. Morneau struggles at times, but he has been no worse than anyone would expect. In fact, he has made some athletic plays that hint at more defensive ability than I would have imagined, but he still has trouble picking bad throws and occasionally just misses an easy play. Castro has not been terrible, but he has been distinctly different than he was last year when he played such a great shortstop. Then, he charged every ball and maintained a strong range. Now, he seems content to let the ball come to him, making plays closer than they need to be at first, preventing some double plays and giving him less time to make decisions with runners on base. I have mentioned earlier that Jason Bartlett has a stronger statistical record at short over the long term and I maintain that he would do a better job even today. Furthermore, part of Castro’s problem may be the domino effect of Tony Batista’s horrible range at third. Even Gardenhire acknowledges that Batista’s defense has been abysmal, saying that Luis Rodriguez gives them more range at the position. When Castro has to cover for Batista, it throws off his natural positioning and timing, making the entire infield worse. In the outfield, Hunter has clearly lost a step after his injury. He was already starting to slow down little by little, but now it seems as if he can only turn it on for certain big plays, allowing him to make the occasion homerun saving grab, but do not count on seeing many more Superman-style diving catches in the power alleys. Other than Cuddyer’s arm, the rest of the outfield has been consistently unimpressive, and the stats agree with me. Among the regulars, Batista leads the futility with a defensive Rate of 81 (19 runs worse than average over 100 games). Castro is at 104, but down from 127 a year ago. Castillo has been so bad he is even below replacement level by one run, coming in with a rate of 84. Morneau is at 92, Hunter at 98, Ford at 90 (LF), Stewart at 94, and Cuddyer at 95. Mauer is the only exceptionally good fielder on the roster at 112. Independently, only Castillo and Batista has the power to throw off an entire defensive unit, but the effect compounds itself with each additional struggling fielder, giving the Twins all sorts of trouble preventing runs and making the pitchers look much worse than they really are.

1 Comments:

At 6/15/2006 7:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can anyone find a list of all pitchers that have more than 1000 strike outs and provide this list to the rest of us. I'd like to follow Johan as he moves up the list.

 

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