Comparables Part II

My last entry dealt with a systematic way of making the inductive generalizations about players that we commonly call predictions. Using baseball history as a guide gives us the ability to detect trends in player development, which leaves us with different probabilities of progression. In examining Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Bartlett, I was able to crystallize some of the beliefs and stereotypes that I carry about these players. Mauer, for one, compares favorably with perennial All-Star catchers of the past who maintained a high level of performance behind the plate deep into their careers. Today, I will look into PECOTA’s black box of player comparisons to see what components of several other interesting players make up their essential qualities and draw comparisons to their predecessors.

Mike Cuddyer- Cuddyer is in a very unique position because he profiles as something of a utility player to this point in his career. Since projection systems use defensive alignment as part of the comparison, Cuddyer’s batting line may take a back seat to his inconsistent playing time and position because most instances of moving a player around are out of necessity- such as not hitting enough for the outfield or not fielding enough for the infield- instead of the Twins moving Cuddyer to find him some playing time. As such, four of his five most comparable players spent a substantial amount of time playing multiple positions, especially third base, first base, and outfield. Cuddyer, like many of the Twins pitchers, would probably have a significantly different list of comparables with a slight tweak in his record: if Cuddyer had played one position his entire career, it would be easier to pin down similar batters, but his status as something of a utility player disrupts that similarity. Many of the pitchers, especially Liriano, have small enough sample sizes to prevent a strong similarity score with any player, and their status as a starter or reliever has been unstable enough to this point that it is difficult to draw good comparisons. Still, Cuddyer’s top comparable showed enough of a bat as a third baseman that it makes Cuddyer’s future look reasonably bright. Doug Rader had only a .725 career OPS playing in the 1970s, but those stats came at the Houston Astrodome, which annihilates offense. Rader’s batting line was good for a .272 career Equivalent Average, which is not too shabby for an 11 year career.

Jason Kubel- Kubel is another player whose profile is not to be entirely trusted. Even though he as the type of aggressive plate approach and line drive power that we have seen time and again in the major leagues, few if any players have every suffered a similar injury and PECOTA has trouble forecasting injury recovery, except through the resulting performance (ie- players with knee injuries may suffer similar losses in speed which are reflected by lower batting averages, etc). Additionally, PECOTA has trouble dealing with Kubel’s lost season because it cannot distinguish between a season-long injury and a player who was out of baseball due to diminished skill. Therefore, Kubel has some of the lowest overall similarity scores among Twins players. Interestingly, former Twin Pedro Munoz, a fellow knee injury victim, appears 3rd on Kubel’s comparables list, a warning that he may never be what we expected, just as Munoz never lived up to his potential after his injury. Kubel’s most comparable player, Jackie Brandt, posted modest batting rates, but in the pitcher-friendly 1960s, it was good for a .269 EQA, well above what most would consider the drop rate. Kubel’s odd profile yields lots of odd comps, but lower on the list we start to see some recognizable names, like Richard Hidalgo (5th), Felipe and Matty Alou (17th, 19th), and Steve Garvey (20th). Clearly, Kubel’s line drive tendencies are an important part of his profile, but it will take time before we get a good read on exactly what the knee injury took away from him.

Torii Hunter- After his 30th birthday, we have a pretty clear read on what type of player Torii Hunter is. He will not murder teams with his bat due to his wild swings and lack of discipline, but he has enough pop to remain useful in the lineup. He has always made his money with his glove, playing what many believe is the best CF this side of Andruw Jones. Some statistics have Hunter rated much lower, and a few analysts have suggested that his gruesome ankle injury will eventually sap enough speed to force him to an OF corner. His statistical profile puts him in line with several players who moved to corners in their careers, often times earlier than Hunter did. Top comp Derek Bell was done in center by the time he was 26, number two Glenallen Hill never did more than spot duty in center, maxing out at 44 games in any given season. His third comparable, Mike Devereaux, lasted in center until his age 31 season, making him the closest thing to Hunter, but stuck around more as a utility outfielder than I would expect for Hunter. Overall, there is little reason to believe that Hunter will maintain enough fielding ability to last in center for much longer, and his price tag combined with his limitations at the plate make him a problem for the Twins if they pay the price to keep him past this year.

Johan Santana- Finding comparables for pitchers is a little less exact than it is for hitters due to the smaller sample sizes, especially for relievers. The Twins starters have more limitations than most because 60% of the starting rotation is made up of rookies. I discussed recently how Liriano and Bonser both have projections far below the level of performance I expect since their recent history, even this year, indicates further development. Even with these limitations, some of the more veteran pitchers have comparable lists worth examining, and I will never tire of discussing Johan Santana. It is no surprise that Santana is in rarified air, but leading off the comp list with Tom Seaver and Pedro Martinez is even better company. Santana is so dominant that handedness does not even enter the discussion at the top since there are so few lefties in his league historically who approximate his dominance. The system thinks so highly of his combination of power, command, and control that he even gets compared to Pedro’s 1999, the year that turned Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez into Pedro-freakin’-Martinez. Not surprisingly, Sandy Koufax makes an appearance at number 11, and the rest of the list is populated with all-time greats like Clemens, Pascual, Bunning, Tiant, and Jenkins and a couple of pitchers whose dominance was sidetracked by injuries, like Jose Rijo. The most important question for Santana has to be his durability and injury avoidance since so many star pitchers cannot keep up such a pace. Tom Seaver is seventh in innings pitched since 1950 and remained effective into his 40s even after topping 250 IP ten times. Pedro’s durability issues are common knowledge, but remaining one of the five or ten best pitchers in the majors into his mid-thirties is impressive in any era. While Mauer is the team’s most valuable asset financial over the next five years and beyond, Santana’s value is $61.4 million over replacement level, good for nearly 32 marginal wins over that time. He may prove to outperform that projection since it starts at $18 million this year and drops each year down to $8 million in 2010. I believe most of the decline is a hedge against the substantial risk of a serious injury rather than attrition, meaning that he will probably be worth much more or much less by the time that day comes (Think of it as something like a 1/3 chance of no value and a 2/3 chance of $16 million value).

Brad Radke- For Radke, the point of looking at a list of comparables would be to see if there is any chance of a significant rebound. Is there a tendency among players similar to him to bounce back from huge and prolonged slumps? His list starts with an encouraging name- Dennis Martinez, who pitched for 23 years, including more than a decade after he looked about ready to retire after five straight 5.00+ ERA seasons in the mid 1980s. I do not expect Radke to win 108 games after his 34th birthday like Martinez did, but it is encouraging that he was able to find success after massive failure. His second and third comps, Juan Marichal and Robin Roberts, had slow declines into their late 30s before retiring, so a sudden and complete collapse the likes of which we fear for Radke is not within his statistical profile. I cannot explain the reasoning with any certainty, but it stands to reason that a pitcher who never relied on stuff or power but on cunning and command would age better than one who needed every ounce of strength to get batters out. As I write this article, Radke has not confirmed any injury, but I suspect he may be covering for something more serious which is hurting his command, because the problems are not common with this style of pitcher.