2010: Continued

In my last column, I started discussing some of the players that the Twins will use to build a contender by the time their new stadium opens in 2010. Joe Mauer provides a shining star as one of the most valuable commodities in the major leagues, but the middle infield does not have the certainty that Mauer provides at catcher. Some of the brighter positions are still to come, since the Twins have more depth and major league ready talent in the OF and nearly an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department. In all, the Twins seem to be in pretty solid shape with their strong farm system, and could gear up for another run at the division, this time with tougher competition coming from Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland in the newly dominant AL Central.

After years and years of consistency with Torii and Jacque next to Shannon Stewart, the outfield is in a state of flux. Jones is gone and Hunter and Stewart have guaranteed contracts through only the end of this season. Many commentators think of Hunter as the face of the team and the Twins best player, a perception that makes him extremely valuable on the open market. As I described in a recent article about the Twins defense, Hunter’s glove is still good, but he is not as dominant as he used to be. He is a worthy centerfielder- nothing to sneeze at- but is no longer worth $12 million as an average outfield batter. Stewart is injury prone and showed last year that he is pretty much cooked as a hitter. He had a good start this season, but that success rate is probably unsustainable, so the Twins would be wise to trade him to New York or somewhere else while his value is still high. If they can pick up an infielder who projects as a major leaguer, it would be something of a coup considering that he probably will not be worth more than one or two wins in the rest of his time with the Twins. Even if the front office lets him walk and takes the draft picks, they will be in fine shape going forward. Lew Ford still gets plenty of playing time and even has enough of a glove to spot start in center, giving him a little extra value in terms of versatility. Still, Ford’s bat limits him to being a fourth outfielder for a decent team, sort of a poor team’s Jay Payton. It is too bad that he is about to become more expensive, making him not worth the extra money they have to pay to keep him around. While the trio of Stewart, Hunter and Ford makes up the starting outfield occasionally for the 2006 Twins, I do not believe that any of them will (should?) be around for opening day in 2010.
Even though the Twins outfield will probably change pretty dramatically over the next couple of years, I think there is probably enough juice in house to fill the outfield cheaply and efficiently. Mike Cuddyer has been a pleasant surprise in 2006, finally finding his batting stroke after moving to a less challenging defensive position. I do not know if playing right field instead of third base has any tangible affect on his batting approach, but we might as well take a good thing where we can get it. He is not an exceptional outfielder, but he has enough of an arm to compensate for his lack of foot speed, and he should continue to improve a little for the next year or two. He has an incredible amount of raw talent, and it is not unfathomable that he could break through to be a .900 OPS guy for a couple of peak years. I know it does not have any practical meaning, but I continue to be encouraged by the fact that he does offseason workouts with Justin and B.J. Upton, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright. The other outfielders on the horizon are Jason Kubel, Alex Romero, and Denard Span. Kubel looked uncomfortable at the plate in his early season struggles at the major league level. Even though he looked good in spring training, getting into a strong rhythm in a higher-pressure situation can still pose a real problem. I do not believe he will have such trouble next time he gets a shot at the major leagues: imagine how difficult it would be to become a major league regular after not playing a meaningful game for over a year with an extremely serious injury. I have lots of leeway with Kubel, and I think his future is bright as a corner outfielder or as a DH. Alex Romero is the top hitting prospect in the Twins system who has not made it to the majors so far. Even his weighted mean PECOTA projection for this season has him hitting .287/.339/.437, a line that would put him in the same class as Shannon Stewart and clearly better than Lew Ford right now. Considering that he is only 22 years old, Romero has a very bright future as a big league outfielder, hitting .305/.383/.533 at AA and showing a good glove, playing above-average defense all the way. In fact, the Davenport translations had him as a plus center fielder in low-A in 2003, but the team moved him to the corner the next year and he has continued his good glove work. Romero’s big league ETA is probably 2008, but he should be one of the team’s top hitters in 2010. Denard Span is Hunter’s heir apparent in center, the only player in the system with enough speed for the team to deem him worthy of full-time duty in center. I expect Span to eventually start for the Twins in center, but his hitting profile shows the same weaknesses that scouts described when he was drafted in the first round out of high school in 2003. The .291 batting average for New Britain does not seem so bad, but all he provides is singles, so he needs to hit them more than 29% of the time. In 172 ABs, he has only 6 extra base hits and 12 BBs, good for a .291/.337/.343 batting line. He also struggles stealing bases, getting caught well over 1/3 of the time through his minor league career. If he plays exceptional defense, that batting profile could be acceptable for an 8 or 9 hitter, but I am afraid Gardenhire might make Span his personal Wily Taveras, destroying RBI chances for the strong hitters in the middle of the order. Perhaps it is a sign that I am unfair to Gardy that I am criticizing him for a decision he may or may not make five years from now. Like the players, any number of things could happen between now and 2010 to install a new manager anyway, but it is hard to imagine the long-leashed Twins giving up on him in the near future. In the meantime, the Twins have to find a cheap replacement for Hunter who can play CF every day, but who will not cost too much money or too many years. Ryan will have to use his scout’s eye to find an effective fielder who will not break the bank. He may be further away, but Kevin West is another name to keep in mind for the outfield of the future.

Due to the exceptional drafting and development of pitchers, the Twins pitching staff should be set for several years to come, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Johan Santana will not come cheaply over the next several years, but with only Mauer and possibly Morneau demanding big contracts in the next five years or so, Santana is the type of player worth overpaying. Liriano, Baker, and Bonser could make a fearsome 2-4 for a long time, and none of them will be eligible for free agency any time soon. Even if one or two of them fail, the organizational depth makes the starting rotation easy to fill. At AAA, J.D. Durbin still profiles as an eventual major league starter. His star has faded some, but he could make for an above average fifth starter without improving at all. New Britain has a pitching rotation that would be solid in AAA, and might not be that far behind a couple of major league staffs. At the top, Errol Simontisch has walked only one batter every four IP and surrendered only four homeruns. Lefty and former Gopher Glen Perkins is making himself into a real prospect with 54 Ks and only 17 BBs in 46.33 IP. As a college pitcher, he is a little older and does not have the high ceiling of some other Twins farmhands, but he could easily become a big league starter. Justin Jones has been a bit wild- 29 Ks and 15 BBs in 27.67 IP- in limited action, but do have some faith in the Twins coaches in transforming his electric stuff (what Peter Gammons called the best in the organization) into a productive pitcher. Pulling up the rear is Matt Garza, a pitcher who BP’s Kevin Goldstein described as this year’s Liriano for his dominance and growth into a top prospect. He pitched his way out of high-A, and has not given up an earned run in 13.67 AA innings, striking out 22 (!) and walking only 2. With stats like that, Garza could be the one starting the first game in the new stadium. Even Adam Harben has been discussed as a big league prospect, but he has struggled so far, walking more than he has struck out and earning himself a demotion. In all, the Twins have so many good pitchers that they could use them to fill offensive holes. They have had the same strength for the last several years and have not pulled the trigger, but if there is pressure to win quickly when moving into a new stadium, trading pitching prospects for established position players could become eminently possible.

The bullpen is not so easily projected, as relievers come from many different pedigrees. Joe Nathan is a failed starter from SF, so it is hard to say where the Twins will find their relievers in the future. Jesse Crain’s minor league results indicate that he could regain his composure and cement a place in the bullpen for several years, but Nathan and Rincon are already old enough that their time as top flight relievers could easily be finished by the time they get to the great outdoors. Consider the top closers and setup men in the game today, very few last for more than three or four seasons. Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are truly exceptional, and we cannot expect such a career from Nathan or Rincon. One name to keep in mind is Pat Neshek, currently the primary closer in AAA. In 32.33 IP, Neshek has a jaw-dropping 56:9 K:BB ratio and has allowed only seven runs. I also like Matt Guerrier as long as he remains cheap for the Twins. Beyond those players, it is difficult to speculate what could happen in the bullpen. Perhaps they will find some other teams’ washouts and polish them into productive players; perhaps they will turn their own staring prospects into starters, a possibility that could turn J.D. Durbin’s career around.

With all of the possibilities, the Twins lineup could look something like this on opening day 2010:

Jason Bartlett- SS
Jason Kubel- DH
Joe Mauer- C
Alex Romero- LF
Justin Morneau- 1B
Mike Cuddyer- RF
Matt Moses- 3B
Denard Span- CF
Alexi Casilla- 2B

Bench: Luis Rodriguez (IF), Chris Heintz (C), Kevin West (OF), Doug Deeds (OF), Felix Molina (IF)

Obviously, the bottom of the order is the weakest point, and the excess pitchers could leveraged to acquire a better centerfielder or second baseman.

SP- Johan Santana
SP- Fransisco Liriano
SP- Boof Bonser
SP- Matt Garza
SP- Scott Baker
CL- Pat Neshek
RP- Jesse Crain
RP- J.D. Durbin
RP- Matt Guerrier
RP- Justin Jones
RP- Beau Kemp