High Five Friday

While I believe the incessant labeling of Minnesota as a small media market is unnecessary and overblown, this year’s All-Star voting moves toward legitimating the notion that people simply do not pay attention to the Twins. Joe Mauer recently passed Albert Pujols, surging to the second highest VORP in the majors, trailing only Travis Hafner by about three runs over replacement level. Comparing Mauer to his competition makes his case even more compelling. Perennial All-Star Pudge Rodriguez once again sits near the top the voting; only an injury in 2002 and a stint in the NL in 2003 have kept him off of the team since 1992, speaking not only to his ability but to his unbelievable durability and longevity behind the plate. He will probably retire with more than 2500 H, 300 HR, a .300+ BA, and about a dozen Gold Gloves, so I have no problem making him a fixture in the game. Jason Varitek, on the other hand, leads the voting, but only because his catcher’s C doubles as a captain’s C for a team with lots of casual fans. Varitek has aged reasonably well, still playing above-average defense (105 Rate), but with only the 15th best VORP for catchers in the AL. That barely qualifies him for the All-Star ballot, much less the starting position with 25% more votes than (arguably) the best player in the league in 2006- Mauer. Joe’s defense has been even better (107 Rate), and his VORP is TWELVE TIMES HIGHER THAN VARITEK’S. I apologize for my tone, but Mauer is out-slugging Varitek by .132, out OBP’ing him by .114, and out-hitting him by .136. I know the All-Star game is a showcase for the game’s most popular players, but at this rate, they might as well just have the Yankees and Red Sox play a barnstorming series while the rest of the league takes the weekend off.

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I came across an interesting bit on Justin Morneau on the Twins official site, not because it attributes his improvement to the masterful psychological powers of hitting coach Joe Vavra, but because it deliberately throws Morneau under a ladder surrounded by black cats. “Morneau's almost a lock to become the organization's first 30-homer hitter in two decades,” says the lead, contradicting the better sense of anyone who has ever followed baseball. I do not put much stake in curses or superstition, but certain customs are worth maintaining. You don’t spit in the wind, you don’t step on Superman’s cape, you don’t pull the mask off of the Lone Ranger, and you don’t fool around with Justin. Or at least you don’t start talking about how he finally has it all figured out. Time and again, we have learned that this practice works about as well as vocally rooting for a no-hitter after the first batter flies out to the warning track. I know the site is meant to support the team and generate positive reactions, but couldn’t they stick to just the facts, ma’am?

And the facts sound pretty good. In the arbitrarily selected period since June 9, Morneau is leading the world in everything, batting .437 with 26 RBI and slugging .837. In that time, the team is 14-2, and while Morneau might not be the single cause- the team has not even scored ten runs in a game in that period- it is not hard to draw a line from his performance to a much more complete offense. I will go out on a limb and predict that the .437 average is not sustainable for someone who still frequently looks lost at the plate. Anyone who watches the Twins frequently knows Morneau’s look of despair: anytime he faces a tough lefty, gets down 0-2 or 1-2, or faces a similar bout with the odds, his already juvenile visage becomes downright infantile. His eyes widen slightly, his jaw slouches back, causing his lip almost to quiver, and he looks like a toddler who followed the wrong look-alike leg in a supermarket and just realized he lost his mommy. Sure, he has made strides, but let’s just say that if I had to design a video game, his “clutch” rating (probably CLT) would not crack 65.

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The more I think about my alarm ringing at 5:30 tomorrow morning, the less I want to make it through all five comments, so the last three are lightning round:

Jim Souhan, the unofficial superintendent of the Twins’ news cycle, recently joined everyone else with a pulse and a Johan Santana jersey in voicing his frustration that the Twins recent hot streak has not vaulted them automatically into contention. Frustrating? Yes, but nobody deserves to be surprised. First, the Twins dug themselves into such a deep hole by preferring experience to talent for the first two months of the season that it would take at least this sort of effort to become relevant once again. They still only have the 6th best record in the AL, and have only half of a game on Oakland. It is nice that they have put together a few good weeks in a row, but Chicago and Detroit have experience at this sort of thing this year. I imagine the Sox and Tigers fans react to this streak with the type of condescendingly amused chuckle that Jack Nicholson would have given Frankie Muniz courtside at Staples Center if that Lakers-Clippers series ever materialized in the NBA playoffs. Moreover, part of the reason for the Twins recent dominance has been weak competition. Beating up on the Dodgers and Red Sox was impressive, but Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Cubs have been bad- not bad, just plain bad. So while the Twinkies have feasted on the weak NL Central, the Tigers and Sox have, well, feasted on the weak NL Central. If the AL set up an Interleague schedule with the finalists from the Little League World Series, the Twins would probably look good in that too, but once again, they would not gain much ground.

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Speaking of the morbid National League, I wrote this before the season:
“I have the AL performing a total of three games above .500 […] which deals with the general superiority of the American League. Consider some of the major player movements of the off-season: A.J. Burnett goes from NL to AL, Jeff Weaver from NL to AL, Jim Thome, Luis Castillo, Josh Beckett, Troy Glaus, Javier Vazquez, Esteban Loaiza. In Jim Baker’s article, he points out that the average projected VORP of transient pitchers going from the NL to AL is 28.0 while the average going the other way is 8.8. For a league that has won the World Series only twice in the last eight years, that kind of attrition doesn’t make for very good prospects. Not only are the worst of the AL generally better than the worst of the NL, most serious title contenders come from the AL too.”
The AL’s dominance in IL play should come as no surprise. Even in the short series league we call the postseason, the AL has won six out of the last eight titles, and the talent keeps going one way. Two of the trendy NL picks before the season, St. Louis and Atlanta, look like total frauds right now. The Cardinals threw as many names around Albert Pujols as they could find, but the aging process has taken a predictable toll on production and durability. Even Pujols has his own issues with back problems and an oblique strain that does not usually heal as quickly or permanently as those World Cup soccer players who go into convulsions until the referee turns away. Atlanta is a total disaster with half as much pitching as a contender would need, possibly confirming the suspicion that Leo Mazzone did his best work on the margins, and they have major flaws at every corner position- no offense from Francouer, Langerhans/Diaz, Laroche, no defense from Larry Jones. After the Twins made short work of the Dodgers and Ned Coletti wasted his best bargaining chip on a 5th starter and a third string catcher, the Mets look like the only worthy contender in the entire league. Maybe once the Astros get Brandon Backe and Andy Pettite playing and playing (reasonably) well, they will look like contenders again, but today, Florida may actually rank in the top half of the National League. Really.

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At least the National League has some real All-Stars. Albert Pujols is THE guy, and has 2.2 million All-Star votes, making him the unquestioned alpha dog of the balloting process. And while the NL team will have a major hole at C if Paul LoDuca wins the vote, the rest of the lineup is pretty compelling, ranging from young stars verging on perennial All-Star status (Bay, Wright, Reyes, Utley), to established big ticket guys in major markets (Soriano, Beltran). To me, the AL team lacks the same sort of intrigue. While it is one game, and only an exhibition at that, I feel very disappointed by the projected AL All-Star team. Ortiz, a DH, will play out of position by playing in a position for the NL-hosted game at first base. Robinson Cano gets the default start at second since there is no clear winner and he is in NY. Same for Jeter, really, but on a larger scale and with a very qualified Miguel Tejada behind him. A-Rod… fine, but does anyone remotely like him at this point? Varitek has been even worse than LoDuca, but that ship has sailed. The outfield is the same old cast of first-name-only guys who take funny routes to fly balls: Manny, Ichiro, and Vlad. They are all great players and fun to watch, but all past their peak and only Manny is having a notably good year on a good team. Plus, the fact that the All-Star team does not have to have a centerfielder always bothered me. Why not just start the 9 best hitters, defense be damned? Actually, watching Travis Hafner try to play short might be extremely entertaining.