More Future than Present
Power Rankings Continued

26. Colorado Rockies- Four out of five for the NL, and my first ranking which may fall wildly out of line with other ranking schemes. Even after losing seven straight, the Rockies have outscored their opponents, and they’re within shouting distance of the division leaders. Also in their favor is the fact that, unlike previous Colorado teams, this iteration of the Rocks has had almost as much success on the road as it has at home (22-22 at home, 22-25 on the road). Also unique is the fact that they rank only 11th in the league in runs scored, but they are second best in the league at preventing runs. Apparently, the humidor is working in Coors field. One explanation I heard from the Rockies’ commentators late last season is that the field was built to have larger dimensions (347-390-415-375-350) to keep balls in the park, but that the humidor deadens the ball to keep it in the stadium. As a result, the outfielders have a lot more ground to cover either behind them or in front of them in a pick-your-poison scenario. In that case, the team should have exceptionally low defensive efficiency, because it would mean that batted balls are much harder to convert into outs. Instead, the Rockies are 16th in the majors in DER, right between the Dodgers and Braves, two teams with some great defenders and some terrible ones. The explanation would still work if the Rockies were actually exceptional defenders being dragged down by the park, but their only itinerate players (Carroll, Ardoin) have had the opposite trend: better stats in Colorado than outside of it. In fact, the park factors for Coors this year are basically neutral overall- 10th in the majors in runs scored, favoring homeruns, but suppressing doubles. Since the field has such a strong effect on our evaluations of Rockies players, it is hard to get a good read on what individuals’ stats mean, but either several of the hitters are playing over their heads, or else several of the pitchers are doing so. Compared to their PECOTA projections and adjusting for the park, Brad Hawpe is far ahead of his weighted mean EQA projection (.298 to .269), as is Matt Holliday (.300 to .271). On the pitching side, Jason Jennings’s 3.64 ERA is much better than the equivalent projection of 5.05, just like Aaron Cook’s 3.72 compared to 5.35. These examples do not say much about how the park factor has changed; they only indicate that, like most teams, the Rockies have some players performing above expectations, and some performing below them. The relevant point, to me, is that the Rockies seem to have an inordinate number of players simultaneously performing an unsustainable distance above their most probable career trajectory. Park effects or no, many Rockies are playing above their individual levels of ability. In other words, their record is not incommensurate with their performance, but their performance may be incommensurate with their talent. Time will tell if I am correct.

25. Tampa Bay Devil Rays- I considered ranking the D-Rays several spots higher based on the heist the Friedman-Hunnsicker pair pulled off from the Dodgers and the wealth of high-ceiling talent that they have in the pipeline. Then I remembered that this is a team that is not ready to compete, and will not be for another year or two. A lineup with Baldelli, Crawford, Upton, Young, Cantu, Gomes and Navarro looks very tasty, but the team needs a lot more pitching, and Baldelli and Crawford may well be traded for depth before the rest of those players are ready to make a run. The D-Rays used a high-risk/high-reward draft strategy under Chuck Lamar, which yielded some big hits, like Young and Upton, but also lots of big busts, like Josh Hamilton, which leaves the big league team thin around the margins. As Joe Sheehan recently noted, this is a team that could play .500 ball down the stretch, but the forthcoming unloading of Julio Lugo will not help reach that goal. Instead, it will start paving the way to a more noble pursuit than a .500 record, an eventual legitimate contender. The difference between the D-Rays and many of the other teams more than 10 games under .500 is the fact that one can follow a clear line of thought from where they are now to where they are trying to get in the next few years.

24. Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles have much more star power than the D-Rays and a better record, but are they really a better team? Since I am making an effort to be in the present, I will rank the O’s just ahead of Tampa, but they have too many extremely similar scrubs surrounding Tejada, Hernandez, Mora and Roberts. Conine, Millar and Lopez have better track records than the crappy supporting casts in Tampa or Chicago, but do not mistake past achievement for present ability. Positive contributions from Chris Britton, Julio Manon, Sendy Rleal and Kurt Brikins make this a trademark Leo Mazzone bullpen. Still, it has not been enough to get Baltimore out of 13th in the league in runs allowed (better than only KC). Admittedly, Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen and Daniel Cabrera have all been worse than I anticipated, but the first two have been so putrid that there is little chance of a meaningful rebound, meaning the problems will probably persist until they largely recast the starting rotation. They got a sweet deal on a Hall of Fame talent in Tejada; it is a shame that they could not put together anything close to a contender to put around him. Now, they are far enough from decency that they will probably have to start over and rebuild without much of a farm system to make the task easier.

23. Florida Marlins- Not in the top 10 like they may have been last year, but they are about seven places higher than anyone would have guessed before the season. Even better, the front office does not have much work left to do before this group of players starts to contend. It will take time, but Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs all project to the types of hitters who can make for a formidable support cast for Miguel Cabrera. Even Miguel Olivo, cast off from teams who were downright desperate for catching help, has shown enough pop (.484 SLG) in a pitcher’s park to make him look like a long term consideration at very least. The pitching staff looks like it will be good and deep in the future, too. Dontrelle may or may not see those better days, but he has recovered from a bad start to put together a season up to his high standards. Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen have been excellent rookies, and struggles from Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Reynel Pinto, Yusmeiro Petit and Jason Vargas are not troubling considering how young they are as a group. I see a trend developing across several of these bottom feeders in that many of them have some front line talent (Bay, Soriano, Cabrera & Willis, Tejada, Lee & Zambrano) and may even have some solid secondary players (Nick Johnson, Mora, Roberts, Aramis Ramirez), but lack depth and talent at the margins. Tampa has to play Greg Norton regularly. Washington had been starting Royce Clayton until recently. Many of the teams have terrible bullpens and/or benches. All of these factors make a very large difference over the course of a full season, and make a team like Boston, with so many options for roster sports 21-25, look that much better. Florida is a quasi-exception to that rule. They do not have the talent around the edges that a great team needs, and they have been using lots of players who do not belong in starting lineups, like Reggie Abercrombie. However, many of the players they have will probably grow into a strong supporting cast. Remember watching the Twins grow from a 70 win team to a division champion without much roster turnover between 1999 and 2002? These Marlins may be on the fast track to a similar run of strong seasons, and at a deep discount.

22. Philadelphia- I have only just moved to Philadelphia, and all the makings of a great season presented themselves, only to deconstruct in front of my eyes. This season has not been one that would prompt anyone to muse that everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong, but their worst luck has hit them in the worst places at the worst times all season long. Where the bullpen has surprised many as a dominant unit behind a resurgent Tom Gordon (watch that recurring dead arm…), Rheal Cormier, Gavin Floyd, and a few more misfits. The rotation, on the other hand, looked pretty solid before the season, if a little thin, and has uniformly fallen below expectations. Six starters have made at least nine starts, and only one has bested a 4.95 ERA, and that is Brett Myers, who has hardly had a reliable season. Having fallen a dozen games behind the surging Mets, the Pat Gillick is faced with a difficult decision. Is there enough in this squad to make one more run with Bobby Abreu, Mike Lieberthal, David Bell, John Lieber, and Aaron Rowand as important players, or is it time to sell off everything besides Howard, Utley, Burrell, and Rollins and start with a clean slate? To my mind, a big part of the calculation has to be what Gillick thinks he can get in return for his most marketable players, and on which players that money will be spent instead. In terms of opportunity cost, spending $8 mil on two very average free agent pitchers next year instead of keeping one more year of Abreu is not particular attractive, especially when the alternative is giving guys like Hamels, Madson, and Mathieson time to develop into legitimate starting pitchers. Maybe the lineup is deep and powerful enough to make a run this year once the pitching staff finds some semblance of order, but they have dug an enormous hole, and it will be difficult to climb out of it without a tremendous reversal of fortunes.