A Case of Mistaken Identity

In the midst of a vintage Johan Santana outing on Tuesday night, the Metrodome fans started a cheer that has escaped Minnesota baseball fans for almost two decades. “M-V-P! M-V-P!” Save for the Timerwolves diehards, it would not be surprising if some fans could not properly recall the acronym. “M-V-P! M-V-P!” Minnesota’s Vengeful Politicians? Not unless Mark Dayton had reason to venture home for the exciting Cleveland series on a non-campaign stop. Minneapolis Veal Parmigiana? As far as I know, Norwegians do not specialize in Italian cooking, unless that Italian cooking includes lye-cured fish (Lutefisk a la vodka? Redundant, no?). “M-V-P! M-V-P!” I’m talking about the caliber of player the likes of which has not been seen ‘round these parts since Sheriff Puckett holstered his pistols and his extremely large bat, riding his old pony out to the Arizona desert in some horribly ill-fitting chaps- spare yourself the visualization. To play in Minnesota is to fly perpetually under the radar, for better or worse. It is easy to imagine the benefits of the limited attention/badgering/harassment from the media and others, such as the unnecessarily high expectations and constant scrutiny. On the other hand, if one makes it his charge to collect hardware from this nation’s great sportswriters, he may find himself disappointed by forces outside of his control. Garnett exemplifies this problematic conundrum, having played at the highest level in the league year after year, but snatching the MVP from Tim Duncan’s quite warm and live hands only after adding the flamboyantly outspoken duo of Spree and Sam I Am to do his talking off the court while his game did the rest on it. Even Johan Santana faced ambivalence from the press for most of 2004 before winning his last zillion starts in a row to pull away from Curt Schilling, who had clear advantages in geography and hemophilia. Even after establishing himself, he lost out on the next Cy Young after having the best season in the league, and Bartolo Colon never even bled himself on TV, as far as I know.

So with history working against us, Twins fans, we embark on an uphill climb for recognition in 2006- Recognition ’06, kinda catchy. But before we come down with an acute case of Lieberman-itis, let’s make sure we are all on the same page, because those noble desperados under the baggy that night were either badly delayed in their chant, or have completely missed one of the all-time great seasons by a Minnesota Twin. For all the great power hitters in baseball history, the Twins lineage is peppered with Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Kirby Puckett, and even Chuck Knoblauch more recently than their last world-class masher, Harmon Killebrew. In that respect, thirty homeruns are nice, even historic, but they do not get Justin Morneau in the door when it comes to MVP consideration. I know as well as anyone that the term “counting stats” refers as much to their cumulative nature as to how much they matter in the eyes of the BBWAA, but that does not mean that a 30-100, or even a 40-120 season deserve automatic MVP consideration over a stat line demonstrative of lower testosterone levels. No, Justin Morneau is not a deserving MVP candidate; I say the chant came with a delay because Joe Mauer is the deserving MVP candidate as things stand right now in the American League.

First, let us run through a cursory comparison of the numbers. Mauer has impressed everyone with his batting prowess, continuing on the track to become the first full-time catcher to ever lead both major leagues in batting average in a season at .361/.441/.522. Morneau has shown more power down in the lineup, hitting a very impressive .318/.370/.593. Those numbers may not looks so different, since Mauer’s OPS of .963 matches Morneau’s on the nose. Factor in Morneau’s impressive, nay, revolutionary 30 homeruns and 103 RBI, and it may seem that his offensive contributions dwarf Mauer’s. After all, for all the talk of Mauer’s on-base proficiency, Morneau has scored more runs than him, 67-62, and Mauer’s power numbers look downright Lilliputian by comparison- 10 HRs, 64 RBI. The mistake is to stop the analysis there, seeing only Morneau’s apparent advantage in a few very notable categories. A better analysis looks at what those numbers mean for the team. First, Morneau’s greatest advantages are in HRs and RBIs; what, precisely, do those stats mean for the team? Obviously, a homerun is incredibly valuable, and takes all of the power out of the defense’s hands. It is easiest to hit a homerun when a pitcher is tired from throwing many pitches and may make a mistake, or when there are runners on base distracting the pitcher. The same is true for RBI, only more so- the stat is wholly reliant on opportunity. If Morneau does not bat with runners on base, he does not accumulate a gaudy RBI total. Mauer’s most notable advantage comes from his remarkably high OBP, which means three things for the team. First, it reflects Mauer’s ability to draw walks, making pitchers throw more pitches and tire more quickly. Second, it shows that Mauer uses less outs than almost any other full time player, setting himself up to score and driving in others, not only through singles and walks, but also with his 39 extra base hits. Finally, it makes for run scoring opportunities by extending innings. Even if Mauer’s run total is not as high as it could be, it is still very high for a catcher who does not play 162 games. More importantly, his out avoidance gives other players a chance to score and knock in runs. Every time Luis Castillo gets on base, Mauer walks, and Morneau eventually drives Castillo in, Mauer gets little to know credit in the stat line for providing that invaluable bridge. Even more generally, his on-base skills give Morneau more plate appearances, giving him more chances to hit 30 HRs. It is no coincidence that the low-OBP teams of the Tom Kelly era did not hit as many circuit clouts: not only did they lack power, they also lacked the chances to hit them. Mauer gives his teammates those chances, which makes everyone around him better.

OPS, therefore, is something of a misleading statistic. It correctly identifies on-base percentage and slugging percentage as the two most important everyday stats when it comes to predicting run production. On the other hand, simply lumping the two together is an ungraceful move signifying a lack of prescience. Without OBP, SLG loses much of its value because it removes the opportunity (the at bats where a player gets to demonstrate his power) and the payoff (the base runners cashed in by depositing one in the bleachers). Typically, I look to stats that take this difference into account, such as EQA or VORP from Baseball Prospectus. Mauer’s OBP advantage plays out to a 54.7-40.4 lead in VORP, good for nearly 1.5 wins on the offensive end. The difference in EQA is equally stark, where Mauer holds a .330-.313 lead over Morneau.

All of this discussion, and not a word about defense. For all of the misconceptions about the value of different offensive statistics, so little is known about defensive statistics, that less explanation is possible. Suffice to say that where Mauer has played a premium and irreplaceable defensive position at an exceptional level for his entire pro career, Morneau has had to make massive strides to become a respectable defender at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum. In other words, Mauer does something extremely well that almost no one else could do, while Morneau does something acceptably well that almost any other Major Leauger could do. Considering the offensive advantage that Mauer holds in the most important categories, Morneau would have to blow him out of the water defensively, and their positions make that almost impossible. If Morneau was Keith Hernandez in the field and Mauer was Mike Piazza, the race would be closer. As it stands, factoring in defense for an overall contribution, Mauer has been more than two wins better than Morneau, 9.8-7.4, according to WARP3.

I feel dirty having berated Morneau for several paragraphs. It would be one thing if he was repeating his 2005 statistics, or had traded bats with Juan Castro immediately before the Cincinnati trade in some Freaky Friday sort of skill transfer. But that is not the case. Morneau has been one of the ten best players in the American League this year, and he has done a lot of things that grab the attention of important baseball people. Batting average, homeruns, RBI: he’s the 1980s and before total package. Unfortunately for him, we now know better, and we can identify one of his teammates as the very best in the league. Morneau is very good. Mauer is transcendent. Barring a meltdown, I say we start giving him the hardware before the SI jinx sets in and his knees go out. And as long as we’re singing the Twins’ praises, we might as well be singing the same song. Sing it with me now, “J-O-E, M-V-P!”