Deadline Dealings

It is only early August, but the effects of Monday’s trade deadline have already started to change the results of games, and teams’ prospects for the postseason. Jumping the gun to declare winners and losers is the type of inappropriate calculation that makes sports analysis seem excessively prospective. As a writer, I see a difference between discussing the most likely effects of a trade in the near future and forecasting exactly how it will play out for the next several years. For instance, it may have looked like the Twins got nothing in return for Doug Mientkiewicz or J.C. Romero in acquiring Justin Jones and Alexi Casilla, but the simple truth is that we just do not know. Condemning or praising trades based on prospects or the promise of future payroll flexibility are very difficult to score for the time being. However, the possibility remains to see which teams gained or lost the most right now, or which teams did not capitalize on their assets, which is precisely what I will attempt to do today: catalogue some of the deadline’s winners and losers in terms we can actually see and evaluate in the not-so-distant future.

Winners

New York Yankees- As you may recall, I recently ranked the Yankees a hair ahead of the Red Sox, reasoning that the additions they stood to gain from the DL outweighed Boston’s narrow divisional lead. In the short time that has elapsed since, the Yankees have already caught the Sox in the division, but have also made a much more significant addition to an already dangerous lineup. Bobby Abreu may not have the luster that he had a few seasons ago, or even after last year’s Home Run Derby, though he remains an on-base machine who makes a huge upgrade over Melky Cabrera, Bernie Williams, or whomever else would have been making outs in his place. Their lesser pickups fill similarly deep holes. Cory Lidle makes a much better starting pitcher than Shawn Chacon, and Craig Wilson gives the team a serviceable backup at a few positions where they previously had none. After two or three years of teams seeking his services, Wilson fetched the Pirates only Shawn Chacon, a terrible pitcher basking in the glow of two good months in pinstripes. Altogether, the Yankees addressed two big needs with acceptable replacements while adding the top available player at a position of less need, though with a very positive impact.

Texas Rangers- Of course I will praise a team for making a trade that I told them to make just a few weeks ago. In the article I wrote on sensible deadline deals, I noted that the Rangers rotation has been better than expected. Still, there remained the issues of depth and luck: depth in that Koronka and Rheinecker are already further down the line than the team may have wanted to go, and luck in that they have actually been pretty good. Jon Daniels is not taking any chances, getting the off season’s bounty finally in the rotation in the form of Adam Eaton, and collecting Kip Wells from Pittsburgh for very little. If he pans out, he may make them an easy winner in the division, and if he does not pan out, the team has lost little. The same goes for the Carlos Lee trade, widely praised elsewhere for the last week. Lee may be a rental, but he comes to them cheaply, costing only three major leaguers who were not going to get the team into the playoffs this year or any other. Mench is a nice enough piece, though Lee is a clear upgrade using the same plate appearances without costing much in terms of opportunity. Even Matt Stairs fits the same M.O.: not a tremendous upgrade, but a clear one who comes at little cost. I believed before that the Rangers would win the division, and Jon Daniels’s moves have made me believe more firmly in him and in the team.

Losers

Washington Nationals- The Nats are 16.5 games out of the NL East lead and 12 games under .500. Jim Bowden made a wise move in flipping a few spare relievers for an upgrade at SS and RF for this year and the next few, but even his Cincinnati heist could not make up for utter neglect on the 31st. That deficit in the playoff race means that he should not be hoarding this year’s goodies when the next years’ spoils are to be had. ESPN ran a story on how much Bowden loves the attention when his managerial hyperactivity becomes the focal point of the league, though he managed to make that feast into one terrific dry heave. Alfonso Soriano notably remained with the team when several pretty good offers passed by that certainly would have helped the team for the next few years. As Joe Sheehan noted on August 1, turning down Jason Kubel and Scott Baker for Alfonso Soriano is not just rejecting two solid prospects, it means turning down two solid prospects and $36 million- the likely financial difference between the two alternatives over the next four years. Tony Armas, Livan Hernandez, and others do not mean as much individually, but even a few mid-level prospects would mean more for the team by the time it is ready to contend than any of the current cast of characters. For once, Bowden found a way not to pull the trigger on a transaction. Unfortunately, it was at the time when he absolutely had to make a deal.

A Little from Column A, A Little from Column B

Oakland A’s- Holding Zito would make more sense if they wanted to contend this year, but standing pat at the deadline indicates that Beane did not see a deal or series of deals that would have put the team on the same level as the Rangers. On the other hand, if Zito was only going to return one prospect- Lastings Milledge- perhaps it would be worth it to let him walk, take the two compensation picks, and hope that better health from the current roster gets them into the playoffs.

Detroit Tigers- Everyone knows what Sean Casey will provide, a high batting average and little else at a prime offensive position. Still, Dave Dombrowski deserves credit for recognizing that Chris Shelton’s hot April was doing nothing for the team the rest of the way, and acting to fix the problem before it worsened. Nonetheless, just like the 2001 Seattle Mariners, these Tigers are not likely to repeat their tremendous success next year, and should make every effort to capitalize on the wins they already have by adding an impact player like Soriano who could help make a hot streak into a pennant.

Philadelphia Phillies- Getting almost nothing in return for Abreu, one of the top players in the game with a skill set that typically ages pretty well, is disheartening. Building around Howard, Hamels, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Bourn, and Madson remains pretty tasty, but they better spend Abreu’s opportunity cost well, or it will be a total lost.