…And I Feel Fine

I once heard an urban legend that R.E.M.’s song, “The End of the World as We Know It” was written about competitive debaters brainstorming apocalyptic scenarios, listing imaginable natural disaster or tremendous human error. As baseball fans, we are all very familiar with the sort of alternate universe that our hobby-cum-obsession occupies, and there are naturally apocalyptic scenarios that frighten us to the brink of paralysis. We experienced one such meltdown in 1994, when the league shut itself down over million dollar quibbles. I remember reading about Dante Bichette sitting in the Colorado clubhouse, drinking a beer in his jock strap on the brink of tears, wondering what would happen for the next month. As great a game as baseball is, there are most certainly problems on every level, so fans are naturally disappointed from time to time.

Yes, disappointment. That has to be the word of the day for Twins fans. While we are on the subject of the apocalypse, I am reminded of what Matthew Broderick’s character says in WarGames, “I don’t believe that any system is totally secure.” Going back to the days of the dead ball, many very smart baseball people have prophesized that pitching and defense are the two most important elements to a successful baseball team. Even supposed revolutionaries in strategy like Earl Weaver and Billy Beane knew to start with good pitching and good defense, and to exploit the shortcomings in scouting, player acquisition, offensive strategy, or other fields- the winning formula seldom starts anywhere but run prevention. The White Sox recently built a smoke-and-mirrors offense that was buoyed by an exceptional ball-catching unit, and rode that combination to a World Championship. For most of my life, the Twins have subscribed to the same doctrine, but of course, even that system has its cracks. None of us need to be reminded that pitching at the major league level has a disproportionate number of occupational hazards. When pitchers go down with injuries, the run prevention equation becomes quickly unbalanced. Ask the Yankees of the last few years how it feels to put resources into a pitching staff, only to see it dissipate before your eyes. The result is, if you will, apocalyptic.

Even within striking distance of the division lead and a hold on the wild card large enough to withstand a bad day, Twins fans have to be feeling the weight of a season crashing down on them today. For all of the grandiose dreams of postseason glory on the horizon, it seems much less optimistic without the 22-year old saving grace coming in to save the day. Even though the Twins have played at a high level without Liriano for the last month, everyone’s high hopes relied on the notion that two aces would give the Twins a massive advantage down the stretch and especially in a short series. Now, the organization faces the unpleasant reality of beginning the postseason with a number two starter- Bonser- who has repeatedly yo-yoed in and out of the starting rotation. Even with a part of the season on the bullpen, Liriano leads the AL in all sorts of rate stats, including ERA, K/9, and BAA. He is even tops in RA+, showing that he has played above a defense that has been less than optimal for most of the season.

Maybe the worst feeling comes from the long term possibilities presented by Liriano’s re-injury. As a player with a history of elbow problems and a rather violent delivery, we knew that Liriano was an at-risk youth and had to keep in mind the possibility that his dominance would eventually come at a cost, a sort of deal with the devil. Losing Liriano for the rest of the year is bad enough, but he said he heard a pop in his arm, and everyone seems to believe that Tommy John surgery will follow shortly, handicapping the Twins for most of a season. Keep in mind that for every Francisco Rodriguez defying mechanical reasonability and medical history, there has to be a much larger group of players like Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett, and innumerable would-be stars who never even make the bigs- even if their pitching skill is on point, they lack the injury prevention skills to make it play. Mentioning Kerry Wood in a discussion of a recently injured young pitcher might be a massive jinx, but I feel that proper restraint would tell us not to expect a productive career out of Liriano from here forward. Hope? Yes. But expectation is a horse of a different color, one that is far more likely to lead to letdown.

Yet somehow I do not feel so bad about the disaster, since we can hardly say that we could not see the relapse coming. Liriano’s first injury of the season was the start of a long, slow crawl to unhappiness, but not to hopelessness. Maybe Bonser would not make it as a number two starter for most good postseason teams, though I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the Twins return from the dead to make a run of it this season. Liriano’s injury does not change the fact that we all got to enjoy a phenomenal comeback, it does not undo the magic that he did in his 15 starts, and, most importantly, it does not end their postseason hopes. It will certainly be more difficult for the team to win in the postseason, like I said earlier, but the difference between this year’s Twins and the ones who lost in 2002-2004 is that this year’s team has an offense. In 2002, a team built to sustain Doug Mientkiewicz, Jacque Jones, Luis Rivas, and Christian Guzman made it to the ALCS with Rick Reed and Kyle Lohse as the two most frequently-used starting pitchers. Although this year’s team could have even better pitchers if Radke and Liriano could start the rest of the time, I still think this team is better than the one that came within one series of making it to the World Series. Plus, what has this series been about if not overcoming multiple and perverse challenges? Liriano was only in the rotation in the first place as a plan-B. Now that plans C-F have seemingly been exhausted, it is time for Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire to earn their money, creatively responding on the fly. I do not mean that I am happy that Liriano has gone down, and if Santana followed him to the DL, I may not be able to maintain my perspective and my optimism. In the meantime, though, let’s try to see the injury for what it is: a predictable bit of misfortune at an extremely bad time. It is hardly the end of the world.