Twins Notes

Tying up some of 2006’s loose ends before we head into the off-season in earnest.

Gardenhire Extension

Immediately after their elimination from the playoffs, the Twins decided to give Ron Gardenhire a two-year contract extension through the 2007 season. If the Twins had continued on their early season trajectory to 75-80 wins, Gardenhire’s future may have been somewhat in doubt. As it stands, Gardenhire took part in a tremendous turnaround that resulted in a fourth division title under his watch. Even if the Twins had narrowly missed the playoffs, the reversal would have been plenty enough to secure Gardenhire some stability. Terry Ryan is not enough of a risk-taker to go into Gardnehire’s last contractual season with no security, so the extension should not come as much of a surprise.

Even though I have been critical of Gardenhire for much of his time as manager, there are worse things the Twins could do than to extend him for another two years. Sure, he has his faults: he willingly gives up too much offense to ensure a decent glove, he gives up on young players too quickly, and he loses his temper with umpires and players pretty frequently. On the other hand, he has proven through four seasons that he is able to get more out of a team than what is expected, from individual players to teams. On the macrolevel, he has overseen the successful maturation of one-time prospects like Justin Morneau, Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, Jason Bartlett, and Francisco Liriano into big-time contributors. Roster management has also become a strength, as he spent 2006 squeezing value out of former rejects like Jason Tyner and Dennis Reyes. Along with Ryan, Gardenhire continually builds outstanding bullpens on the cheap, freeing up resources for more productive uses. Even his in-game managerial skills have progressed to being above-average, including his judicious use of sacrifices and his ability to get good matchups late in games. I do not believe that Gardenhire had all of these skills when he became the Twins’ manager in 2002, but I think he has matured into one of the ten or twelve best managers in the game.

Hunter Option-Year

Torii Hunter played a big part in keeping the Twins hot down the stretch, joining Justin Morneau in the exclusive 30-HR club and playing acceptable CF defense- aside from one notable postseason exception. While Hunter’s 2007 option was an open question for most of the year, his red-hot finish made the investment a much easier decision. Hunter continues to lobby for an extension that will keep him around into the 2010 opening of the new stadium, but the current one-year deal minimizes the risk while giving the team some flexibility.

Consider this train of logic: the Twins will most likely be in the race for the AL Central title and the AL Wild Card in 2007, barring any disastrous occurrences. With four solid teams in the division, they can ill afford any regression; every win has a huge impact on a team’s overall prospects. Therefore, if the Twins are going to let Hunter go, they would need to find an adequate replacement for him in center field, and that does not currently exist within the system- Lew Ford’s bat simply cannot play, and Denard Span will need until 2008 or later if he is ever going to be ready. The free agent market features Jim Edmonds, Mike Cameron, Dave Roberts, and Juan Pierre, all of whom will probably be two wins worse than Hunter, and it is unlikely that any of them will sign contracts for less than $12 million over the life of the deal. Sure, there is something to be said for cost certainty, but would you want to mortgage your future on Edmonds or Cameron considering their recent injury histories? Me neither.

Hunter will not be worth $12 million in 2007, but he is far enough better than the alternatives that the price tag is easier to swallow. The risk is minimal, since the team can cut ties at the end of the season if Hunter’s health or defense deteriorates to an unacceptable level. Factor in the notion that the difference in salary of a couple of million dollars could also be the difference between making and missing the playoffs, and it is almost a pleasure to pay him. The most important consideration is whether each move will help the team get closer to a championship, and this deal will help the Twins work toward that goal next year without hamstringing them with an old, $12 million LF who cannot get on base on 2010.

Liriano’s Arm Trouble

I have said it before and I will say it again: when evaluating pitching injuries, always expect the worst. In Liriano’s case, that means that we should not expect anything at all from him in 2007. Even a modest contribution would be gravy, because anything more ambitious would encourage the team to push him back too soon.

His current status is not unlike it was after his late-season comeback; he has continual disconcerting pain in his throwing elbow. Essentially, he has a great deal of scar tissue in that elbow left over from a surgery a few years ago, and that scar tissue refuses to hold up. Scar tissue is weaker than the usual tendons and ligaments, so it tears and re-tears, causing discomfort in the arm, but not causing any new damage to the arm. In that sense, Liriano is not getting more injured each time, but he continues to be just out of reach of his normal level with no desirable end in sight. It is not even an issue of pain tolerance, since he clearly fails to perform up to his usual level when trying to pitch with his current condition.

As I understand it, the Twins basically have two options with Liriano. The more conservative option would be to continue to rehab his arm, hoping that it will eventually become strong enough that his regular throwing motion will not rupture the scar tissue, which was his status during his dominant stretch in the middle of the season. Since this approach has already failed two or three times (depending on how fully healed the scar tissue was after his first down period), it is hardly a comforting solution, even if it is the only possible way to have him ready for Opening Day.

The other option is more aggressive, but it may be the only long-term solution. Since the ligament in question is Liriano’s MCL- the Tommy John ligament- he could have surgery to reinforce the ligament, just like a regular Tommy John surgery. In this case, the scar tissue would be replaced by a new ligament, a risky proposition, but one that could get him back to full strength in the long run. Because I have already pushed Liriano’s 2007 possibilities out of my mind, I am willing to advocate the second option, unless a new examination reveals different information. In either case, I do not believe he will contribute much in 2007, and I think the second option offers more hope for all years after that.