Help Wanted

Two years ago, the Mets disappointed everyone, winning only 71 games and failing to even sniff the playoffs under Art Howe, the big ticket manager handpicked out of Oakland a couple of seasons before. After replacing Howe with Willie Randolph, the Mets have completed their first back-to-back winning seasons since 2000-2001, and spent most of 2006 as the class of the National League.

Last year, the Tigers also won 71 games, finishing fourth in a competitive division, leaving little reason for hope going into 2006. Enter Jim Leyland, and the Tigers surprised everyone, leapfrogging the rest of the division to make it to the ALCS after a 24-game improvement. It was the team’s first winning season since 1993, and their first playoff appearance since 1987.

I do not mean to say that Randolph nor Leyland possesses some special moxie or pixie dust that turns a bad team into a good team. I also do not mean to say that either manager’s positive attitude redefined a culture of losing that stood in the players’ way. What I do believe is that a good manager puts players in the right positions to play to their potential, optimizing the value that they provide by utilizing platoon and individual match-ups. Furthermore, they identify players who are cresting or bottoming out, and adjusting playing time accordingly.

Take, for example, the turnaround of the Minnesota Twins this season. The team went from an afterthought in the AL Central to the eventual division champion when Ron Gardenhire substantially altered the everyday lineup by putting Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto in places to succeed. He found a position where Mike Cuddyer could get his hit on without doing too much defensive damage. He and his coaching staff put together a cheap and exceptionally useful bullpen. Mid-season injuries did not stop the stampede, as Gardenhire found situations where players like Jason Tyner and Rondell White could make positive contributions. He even pressed a lot of the right buttons in the rotation, which did not get effective full seasons from Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, Scott Baker, or Francisco Liriano, their preseason 2-6 starters.

Jim Leyland is a similar case. Set aside the grizzled ballplayer exterior, the unnecessary dugout cleats, and the fact that he hits batting practice to his team every day- his image is not on trial. The accomplishment for which Leyland deserves credit is the way he managed his roster. Like Ozzie Guillen last year, Leyland put together a pitching staff that has exceeded everyone’s expectations by having the right guys on the mound at the right times. By committing to youngsters Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya, he defied the notion that high-leverage pitchers have to be proven veterans, and he was rewarded for it with almost 85 runs of VORP and some great postseason performances. Kenny Rogers, a notoriously slow finisher, did not suffer down the stretch, and has pitched 15 incredible innings so far in the playoffs. Leyland has even got a lot out of a little in the lineup squeezing more out of Marcus Thames and Craig Monroe (30 combined runs of VORP) than anyone would have reasonably expected. Forget about station-to-station or one-run strategies for a minute. A manager has the extremely important job of filling out the lineup card every day, and a lot more goes into that calculation than most of us realize.

With that notion in mind, let’s look at the managerial vacancies around baseball, along with a few of the premier candidates who could occupy those vacancies in the near future.

Oakland A’s

After dismissing Ken Macha, some journalists predictably criticized Billy Beane for his egotism and lack of personal accountability. After being swept by a comparably talented team, I wonder what other course of action Beane would take- fire himself? Truthfully, Macha competently managed the rotation and lineup all year, but for a team with title hopes and lots of difficult injury or personality cases (Milton Bradley, Frank Thomas, Rich Harden, Bobby Crosby), adequacy does not cut the mustard. Throw in a near mutiny from the players, and the decision was practically a no-brainer.

For next year, the A’s would be best served by a manager who knows how to utilize the ample platoon advantages Beane has given him on both offense and defense. More importantly, after seeing Guillen and Leyland magically keep injury-prone players in the lineup, Beane has to find someone who understands usage patterns well enough to keep the top players in top form. In-game tactics may not be as important, as a slow team who draws lots of walks does not have may offensive options. For all of those reasons, cross Dusty Baker off of the list right now. A better fit might be Buck Schowalter, a manager with experience managing pitching staffs and temperamental players from his time in Arizona, and a good track record across three stops.

Texas Rangers

Two previous Schowalter dismissals preceded titles in New York and Arizona, so Texas has to feel superstitiously good about their chances for next year. The Rangers have different issues than the A’s, trying to develop and optimize young arms rather than plugging in more mature ones. On offense, the new skipper will have to find a way to replace the unexpected surges of Gary Matthews Jr. and Mark Derosa. With Hank Blalock’s and Mark Teixeira’s futures uncertain, the team the Rangers will put on the field next year is hardly a sure thing.

Even with the confusion, it is fair to say that the number one job of any new manager will be to find a way to make the pitching trio of DVD (Diamond, Volquez, and Danks) healthy and productive major league arms, perhaps stemming the tide of offense-only baseball in Arlington. Thus, Angels’ pitching coach Bud Black deserves a look, if only because he knows more about pitching than any other major candidate. If Jon Daniels still has Orel Hershiser’s phone number, he might as well call him, too.

San Francisco Giants

A great deal of the Giants’ future depends on what happens to Barry Bonds in the next few months. Apparently, Bonds is not walking away, but reports out of Frisco indicate that ownership may not want him back, recognizing that the current version of Barry is not enough to carry a band of retreads into contention. Even so, Bonds’ drawing power is probably great enough that the imminent rebuilding process should wait for another year, since they have no chance of winning without him, but that is another debate for another day.

For now, I will assume that Barry leaves next year, and that the Giants become the post-Jordan Bulls, only without the championships coming on the front end. In that case, the Giants below-average farm system and aged roster paints a dire picture for the next manager. My advice to Brian Sabean would be to pick someone who will not make big mistakes in terms of injuring the few prospects the Giants have, or sticking with useless veterans when younger players could be developing. In other words, the Giants need a fall guy, someone to do what Allen Trammel did for the Tigers for three years, someone to keep the seat warm for a real manager once the team has a chance to contend again. And who knows, maybe this organizational soldier will pan out to be good enough to keep the job once it means something.

Washington Nationals

The Nats have a less certain direction than any of the previous three teams. While the Rangers and A’s will obviously try to win the division right away, and the Giants have to take a couple of years to fashion a new team out of a ball of clay, the Nats’ future may depend on the unpredictable whims of Jim Bowden’s fancy. Signing Alfonso Soriano will do nothing but get the team back into the mid-70’s in wins while failing to address the persistent need for pitching depth and cheap talent across the board. Washington is one bad signing away from becoming real competition for Baltimore, but not in the revenue-stealing way Peter Angelos fears, instead by stealing the perpetual mediocrity for a team with one big-name star and little else.

In my mind’s eye, the best path for the Nationals to follow would be to try to built Atlanta North. With Stan Kasten at the top, the team could devote itself to player development, supported by enough of a revenue stream to patch up the lineup through free agency, much like the operation Kasten oversaw with the Braves. Since Bobby Cox is not available, I would go a cheaper route, finding a fairly young manager, no previous managerial experience required, who knows how to use young players and stresses fundamentals like a lunatic. Perhaps Joe Girardi deserves a look.