Sunday, October 08, 2006

Dynastic Demise

Take a deep breath, baseball fans; the weight has been lifted from our shoulders. The monkey has leapt from our collective back. The albatross hangs no longer from our weary neck. For the seventh straight year, the terrifying, borderline religious, hope for the fall of the Yankees has come to satisfying fruition. A prediction that many made earlier in the year, and even more abandoned with the slip-sliding of the Tigers’ rotation, has become a reality as Detroit’s dynamic pitching staff entirely stymied the most star-studded offense in baseball for three unbelievable games.

Even with Joe Torre reportedly down for the count, the Yankees will not be in the dumps for long. Lou Pinella, an eminently qualified skipper, has one hand firmly fixed on the baton, and a core of past and future all-stars will return. Considering the Boss’s easily predictable petulance and the uncertain status of the revenue sharing system heading into this year’s collective bargaining negotiations, we could see a spending spree in the Bronx paralleled only by Roman Abramovich buying most of Europe’s best footballers for Chelsea’s side all at once. Still, the track record for patience and development is a much more successful one than Steinbrenner’s penchant for reactionary rashness. Should they enter the bidding for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito? Might as well nab both, lest the other come back to beat the in the playoffs. The bullpen will certainly be overhauled all the way up to Mariano Rivera. And who knows what will happen to Alex Rodriguez after another thorough playoff collapse.

Even the most indulgent shopping spree scenario comes with the caveat that the Yankees have been successful when Steinbrenner has taken his hands off and let the baseball people run things, making the possibility of another Dave Winfield situation something to expect rather than consider. Jeter, Rivera, Bernie, and Pettitte laid the groundwork for four World Championships, teams that did not lose to youthful exuberance or surprising resurgence. These teams had complementary talent, acquired by Brian Cashman to fit together in a World Series puzzle. They came through smart trades or deft pickups that did not cost the deed to the farm system, allowing them to develop their own core. Since that roster starting turning like a pig too late for slaughter, Steinbrenner was unwilling to commit to building another sustainable roster of balance across the board. John Kruk’s reaction was that, “You can’t pitch with money,” which makes sense if interpreted correctly. Pitching is unpredictable; injuries and collapses happen frequently and almost randomly; Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Randy Johnson hovered far below expectations. Good pitching depth has to be developed, because good pitchers do not become available in free agency often enough to build a dominant pitching staff.

Pitching is not the Yankees only problem, although it is a major one. Their failings have manifested themselves in different ways through the last six postseason losses. So in a celebration of another Yankee loss, let us gleefully look back on each series since 2001 where New York has fallen to a team with less prestige.

2001- 7 Game World Series Loss to Arizona

A 95 win regular season masked a continued decline from the team’s 1998 peak. Knoblauch, Brosius, and Justice remained in the starting lineup past their primes with decreasing usefulness. With Mussina, Clemens, and Pettitte, the front end of the rotation had enough to win, and the team was within seconds of raising another flag. In all honestly, this Yankee team cannot fall in the failure category, since a broken bat single and the two best pitchers in the game reversed their fortunes quickly and stunningly from a 3-2 Series lead. It took a lot of luck for the D-Backs, but who can complain?

2002- 4 Game ALDS Loss to Anaheim

Adding David Wells and Robin Ventura put the team back on the rise, maybe as good as it had been since 1999. Still, the pitching staff gave up 31 runs the four games of the ALDS. Anaheim rode its slap-happy approach to hit .376/.406/.624 for the series. The Angels’ least productive regular was Funky Ben Molina, who still had four hits and two XBHs in only four games. Again, the Yankees can shirk the blame by blaming a white-hot opponent, but when your pitching staff can do nothing to stop Darin Erstad and Scott Spiezio, you have your own problems. Also, this was Jason Giambi’s first postseason series with the Yankees. The team’s record in postseason series since he arrived is 3-5, which is fine by me, since mercenaries do not deserve champagne.

2003- 6 Game World Series Loss to Florida

Another heartbreaking World Series defeat, another recent expansion team celebrating in the Stadium. If you had not figured it out by this time, nobody could miss the fact that this was not the same Yankee team that won four titles in five years. With Hideki Matsui now in the fold, Nick Johnson playing his best season in pinstripes, and Jose Contreras showing flashes of a young El Duque, the Bombers looked absolutely primed for a return to glory. They were on the doorstep, too, with a 2-1 series lead and the Game 4 winning run only 90 feet away after tying it at 3 in the top of the 9th. The Marlins did not allow the run to score, though, and Alex Gonzalez hit the game winner in the 12th. The Yankees would not win another game in the series.

2004- 7 Game ALCS Loss to Boston

We all know this story well enough. Dave Roberts, Johnny Damon, Curt Schilling, David Ortiz. I will spare the retelling, except to say that this disappointment was a year in the making after the Yankees only escaped the ALCS a year before due to the misgivings of Grady Little. A-Rod made “the slap” in this series, and it has all been down hill from there, even if he won the MVP the next year. It seems odd to me that he has spent as much time with the Yankees as he did with the Rangers, possibly because so much of his New York tenure has been very forgettable.

2005- 5 Game ALDS Loss to Anaheim

Anaheim deserves its reputation as one big Yankee-killer, not only for two postseason eliminations, but also for strong play during the regular season. The roster for this team is very similar to the one that just lost to the Tigers, and it happened in much the same way. The Angels held the Yankees to 3 runs three times out of five, getting good outings from Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, and John Lackey. With an offense as good as New York’s, no team can expect shutouts night after night, but sending out an above-average starter every game, like Anaheim and Detroit have done, can at least keep enough games within reach.

2006- 4 Game ALDS Loss to Detroit

Maybe it is too early to say anything definitive about this series, but it certainly seemed like Kenny Rogers made a season and career-altering start in game 3. If he walks away at the end of the year, everyone would forget about his miserable times in New York, his extended mediocrity, and his one-sided brawl with the cameraman. His legacy will probably derive strictly from that one incredible outing. I do not believe much in tangible effects of leadership or in “setting the tone,” but Rogers undeniably transitioned Detroit from thinking they could beat the Yankees to knowing they would beat the Yankees, and Jeremy Bonderman closed the book 24 hours later.

So here we stand, with the Yankees seven years removed from inviting Bud Selig into their clubhouse, and the prestige of their regime is fully intact. The Evil Empire will probably be back in business before long. In the meantime, let’s fully enjoy the fresh storylines that replace Derek Jeter’s clutchness and Joe Torre’s leadership. These are very good times.

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