BONANZA! part II

The thrilling conclusion to the 2006 free agent countdown...

5. Alfonso Soriano- I suspect that most free agent lists would have Zito and Soriano as interchangeable numbers one and two, perhaps with a few placing Matsuzaka near the top of the list. And while I just finished dissing the idea of overspending on pitching due to the market conditions, I am still placing Soriano a little further down the list. To see why, I will start by looking at some of the things that Soriano does well. He hits lots of homeruns, and does so consistently enough in variable circumstances that it is clearly a repeatable skill rather than a product of his time in hitter-friendly Arlington. He runs very well, getting a handful of cheap hits and stealing bases well enough to make it an asset for the team. In further defense, what some may call his greatest offensive weakness- his capacity to strike out- is not nearly the weakness that some may think it is, since his power numbers show the upside of swinging for the fences on any count. Finally, he provides his team with some versatility, since he can nominally play multiple defensive positions, at least 2B and LF, perhaps even RF or CF.

That is the way an optimist may frame the Soriano scouting report. Conversely, I could describe him as an undisciplined hitter whose lack of patience means that his power may eventually dry up, as it did somewhat before moving to the National League. His speed is useful, though he does not use it optimally since he also runs into plenty of outs, and all of these problems are compounded by the fact that he does not field well enough to have a true position anywhere on the field. Most importantly, the skills that he does possess are the ones that certain executives tend to overvalue. Soriano will make top dollar, not necessarily because he has the total package to offer to a team, but because he has the specific package of skills that makes him extremely appealing.

If you think Soriano might end up as a bargain, consider the opposite type of player from Soriano. He would be quietly consistent at a premium defensive position, would hit for power without hitting a huge number of homeruns, would draw lots of walks, pulling up an OBP without a flashy batting average. For the purposes of this discussion, I will call such a player “Craig Biggio,” someone who has played for a dozen contenders over the last couple of decades, contributing a remarkably stable level of performance far below the radar. Biggio has never made $15 million in a season. He has never been overexposed, and he still does not get the credit that he deserves. If the opposite player type of Soriano is chronically underpaid, it does not necessarily follow that Soriano would be overpaid. Even so, trust me, he will be overpaid.

Prediction: 6 years, $100 million with New York (N)

4. Aramis Ramirez- The top ranked position player on my list is one who was not even sure to be a free agent a few weeks ago after opting out of the end of his deal with the Cubs. Unlike Soriano, whose unharmonious time in Washington grew his free agent buzz through the year, Ramirez sprung up at the last moment. If you pay attention to what the teams are saying instead of sportswriters, you will notice that almost every team has an interest in Ramirez, probably because he plays a thin position fairly well, has several good years in front of him, and has a middle-of-the-order bat. Comparing his line directly to Soriano’s, the two are nearly indistinguishable. Ramirez hit .291/.352/.561 against Soriano’s .277/.351/.560. Soriano was still more valuable for his peripheral contributions, such as 41 steals, only 3 GIDP, and 4 times more intentional walks. I prefer Ramirez anyway, because Soriano’s glove is already suspect, and will likely only get worse as he gets further on the wrong side of 30. Moreover, Soriano just posted his career-best OBP and SLG in his age 30 season, not a position that cries out “repeatable.” Ramirez, on the other hand, posted nearly the exact same batting line at a more difficult defensive position, is two years younger than the Fonz, and had played at an even higher level for two years before the two matched each other in 2006. Setting all of that aside, Ramirez will likely come a little cheaper, which is an important consideration in a year where salaries will likely explode.

More generally, Ramirez plays at a position with a little more scarcity than Soriano. A huge number of potential contenders either have an uncertain situation at third base, or could really use an upgrade to get them over the hump. The Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Angels, and Twins all have weak spots at third. The Red Sox, Indians, Astros, and Reds have at least some uncertainty going forward. And the Rangers, Brewers, and Tigers could be in search of a third baseman before too long, as they have all discussed moving their current starters. Maybe the competition will drive the bidding for Ramirez through the roof, but he has handled his free agency in a low-key way so far, which could very easily continue. As I see it, Ramirez would be best used on a team that already has an established core and could add him on the margins to give them a couple of extra wins. The Dodgers and Angels definitely fit the description, and the Phillies would be wise to try to get into the conversation, as their third base void was more of a problem than their starting rotation at the end of the season.

Prediction: 5 years, $65 million with Los Angeles (N)

3. Jason Schmidt- Like Ramirez, Schmidt has not received so much media attention in the last few months about his impending free agency. In fact, he has been so overlooked that the Giants supposedly considered trading him to the White Sox at the trade deadline to get something in return, even though they were still in the playoff race. I would guess that Schmidt lost some of his momentum in 2005, when he battled injuries to a 4.40 ERA in 172 IP, his worst results after assuming star status upon his trade to the Giants in mid-season 2001. Over that span, he struck out at least 180 batters in four out of his five full seasons, won 78 games, and never gave up more than 21 homeruns. Certainly, his home park has helped keep the HR and ERA totals down, but no matter how you look at it, Schmidt has been one of the more consistent and durable starters over the last five years, and should continue to be for a few more years. He may not bridge into the “ace” category that people like Scott Boras like to mention, though that is no knock considering that he is easily one of the 30 best starting pitchers in the majors, probably ranking much higher.

My first impression of Schmidt’s free agency was that he would prove to be the steal of the free agent market. He is not so terribly far behind Zito in terms of what I would expect from him in the next two or three years, and pitchers of his type tend to age at least reasonably well. One major concern is that his three most similar pitchers through age 33 won a combined zero games after their age 33 seasons. Jack McDowell and Ramon Martinez never pitched again, and Bartolo Colon, like Schmidt, will enter his age-34 season in 2007. Even with that caveat, I believe that Schmidt could be a very good player over the life of his contract, and Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecaster agrees, giving him between 20-25% chance of being a “superstar” caliber player from now until 2009.

One factor that has changed between the time I started thinking about the free agent market and today is the level of attention teams have paid to Schmidt as a top-shelf starter. While he received almost no love in early discussions, which all seemed to center around Barry Zito, Schmidt’s name now crops up right behind Zito’s in nearly every conversation about starting pitching. Although I do not think less of him as a player, I do think less of him as a free agent, as the buzz will translate into a more burdensome contract.

Prediction: 4 years, $50 million with Boston

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka- I wish I could say more about Matsuzaka. Watching him in the WBC, he looked like a dominant number one starter. Then again, lots of dominant number one starters looked like career minor leaguers in the WBC, and others who dominated did so against week competition. Contrary to rumors, he does not throw a gyroball, at least not yet, and at least not in games. He has generated a lot of buzz as one of the top pitchers in baseball. How much of that is Scott Boras blowing smoke across the continent, I have no idea.

To me, the most interesting part of Matsuzaka’s transition into the Major Leagues is the mainstreaming of the posting process that brings players across the Pacific. As far as reports have indicated, any team that wants to bid for Matsuzaka will post a sealed bid to the Japanese league, at which point, the league will hand over the highest bid to Matsuzaka’s team. Whichever team submitted the highest bid will then give that amount of money to the Japanese team, and they will have exclusive negotiating rights with the player, which might hamstring Scott Boras in the negotiations since he cannot play teams against one another. If the team makes a good faith effort to sign Matsuzaka and fails, he can return to his Japanese team, or the team can choose to accept the second highest posting bid, and he can negotiate with that team. What constitutes a “good faith” negotiation seems arbitrary to me, and Bud Selig makes the determination as to whether a second team gets involved, which seems like a problem in the process.

Another problem comes from the possibility for corruption, such as a secret agreement between two teams. Say, for example, an American team places a sealed bid of $200 million, a number that would obviously win the bidding. But instead of actually paying the $200 million, they would have a hush-hush agreement with the Japanese team that they will pay 10% more than the second highest bid- the highest legitimate bid. Is any Major League team shady enough to try such a stunt? Probably not, but we might never know, even if it comes true. If players are going to be moving back and forth, the leagues should set up a unified posting procedure from one team to another rather than from league to league in order to streamline the process in the same way that European soccer teams negotiate with one another.

Prediction: 5 years, $70 million with New York (A)

1. Barry Zito- Teams will line up to pay for Zito’s durability, consistency, and predictability. He had his Cy Young season, and he had his 2004, which was about as far below his normal level as his Cy Young year was above it. The variation is small and acceptable in either direction. More importantly, several of the big budget teams who look to be in the running for Zito have rotations built around other pitchers signed as free agents, who are therefore older, and often therefore frailer (Yankees- Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wright; Mets- Martinez; Red Sox- Schilling, Wakefield). Thus, Zito’s stability may be of even greater value to these teams who do not have many pitchers who are actually still in their prime.

There is the case behind signing Zito. On the other hand, consider that he will absolutely make ace money, even though he stands virtually no possibility of actually pitching at a commensurate level. Looking again at PECOTA, Zito projects to be worth $6.4 million or less in each of the next four years. I might be overrating some of these picks, but I do not think there is any chance Zito will make anywhere in the neighborhood of $6.4 million per year over the life of his contract.

So signing Zito is going to be someone’s mistake. My guess is that it will be the Mets’ mistake, since they have been trying to pry him away from the A’s with varying degrees of intensity for the last two years. Now that the rotation needs even more patching than at any point in the recent past, they will shell out the extra money to remain viable NL contenders, even though that will mean paying way too much money for an innings muncher. Maybe the Mets will win the bidding for Matsuzaka and Zito will end up with one of the other marquee franchises, but I believe that one way or another, the top three players on this list will shuffle between New York, Boston, or Los Angeles.

Prediction: 5 years, $75 million with New York (N)