The Most Important Player in the Division

Baseball, by its nature, includes an interesting sort of duality. On one hand, it is the quintessential team game where players have to live together from March until November with no real breaks if they hope to succeed. Baseball history is peppered with stories of talented rosters submarined by flawed relationships and clubhouse cancers. Even if intangible or unmeasurable, team chemistry has a very real effect on in-game performance. On the other hand, players have a tremendous amount of personal responsibility within games. The closest interaction with other players on the field may be calling one another off for an infield pop-up or congratulating a teammate for a big hit. The game’s most essential event- the showdown between pitcher and batter- is an overwhelmingly individualistic practice, pitting one’s wits and skills against another’s.

In the vein of this second sentiment, there will never be a baseball version of Steve Nash. No individual player’s presence will suddenly alter everyone else’s performance on the roster- the game requires too much individual execution. Sure, Greg Maddux can pass down knowledge to younger pitchers, and Kevin Millar can loosen up a clubhouse with an Icy-Hot jock, but notice that those two have not drastically overhauled their new teams over the last two years.

Instead, individual contributions come from a player’s personal skills and perseverance. Last season, Francisco Liriano made the Twins much better because he played extremely well, not because his pitching made Nick Punto a better hitter. His individual contribution was enough that it pushed a solid team to win its division and enter the postseason sweepstakes. Losing that contribution near the end of the season was a key factor that contributed to the winless playoff series at the end of the chain. Altogether, few other players had such an overpowering impact on their teams’ playoff and championships than Liriano, which is precisely the reason the Twins could be in dire straits this season. Today, I will look around the majors for the players whose situation and variability put them in uniquely high-leverage positions, giving them the opportunity to make or break their team’s hopes within the division.

AL West: Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA

The A’s did not replace their two most famous players from a year ago, the Rangers still have no pitching staff, and the Mariners have a steep hill to climb into contention. That leaves the Angels in a strong position to win the division without improving much on last season’s results. At the same time, the team has one easily foreseeable weakness: the ability to score enough runs to win ballgames. Most of the squad’s offensive stalwarts have a pretty narrow range of possible outcomes. Vlad Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, Gary Matthews, and Garret Anderson have been around long enough that they are not terribly difficult to project, at least as long as they average around 140 games apiece. One place where the team can improve from 2006, however, is at the keystone, where the young Kendrick finally replaces the stalwart Adam Kennedy, giving the lineup some much needed upside. Kendrick, like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn, has the type of ability to hit any pitch that can translate into a batting average over .300 year after year. Many scouts agree that he has multiple batting titles in his future, and PECOTA thinks he will be the Angels’ second best offensive performer this year, well behind Vlad, but more than 10 runs ahead of either Matthews or Cabrera. A disappointing season could undermine the team’s postseason chances, as The Hardball Times sees the Angels’ as a one game favorite in the division, leaving little room for error.

AL Central: Joe Borowski, Closer, CLE

Between Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, the Indians should have no trouble putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard- PECOTA thinks they will score the fourth most runs in all of baseball. Preventing runs, on the other hand, could provide more of a challenge. A miserly bullpen over the last two years has not only put the team at a disadvantage in terms of run prevention, it has done so at the highest leverage parts of ballgames. As a result, the Indians have systematically underperformed their run differential and missed the playoffs with very talented rosters two years in a row. Like Guillermo Mota and Bob Wickman before him, Borowski was scraped off the pavement to try to staunch the bleeding. Since THT sees the Indians 6 games behind the Twins at year’s end and BP sees a one win deficit, it seems that the projection systems do not think he will cover the wound sufficiently. PECOTA predicts a 4.95 ERA for Borowski, but he has managed sub-4.00 ERAs in each of his last two major league seasons, so there may be hope for the Indians at the back end of the bullpen after all.

AL East: Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY

If we want to discuss high leverage in the AL East, it is safe to say that the D-Rays are not involved. Wang is one of the few highly volatile players who PECOTA refuses to take a strong stance on. A 4.31 ERA and a 23.0 VORP splits the difference between hitters figuring him out and his sinker continuing to blister the league. Personally, I do not believe that the results will fall so cleanly in the middle. The debate revolves around whether a pitcher who throws only one pitch and throws it extremely well can succeed by getting lots of ground balls, or whether those ground balls will eventually get eyes and find their way through the infield as they did for Jake Westbrook last year. Wang is no Westbrook; his velocity and command dwarf Westbrook’s, and he has already had a better season than Westbrook will ever have. But being the nominal ace on the biggest ticket team with the highest expectations in all of baseball place him in a more challenging spot. If Wang repeats 2006 or improves upon it, the Red Sox will be hard pressed to stick with the Bombers. If hitters somehow figure him out, or his sinker loses any little bit of effectiveness (the way Zito’s curveball never quite got back to Cy Young form after 2002), he could be in for a much rougher patch, and his team will feel the effects. Personally, I believe Wang’s 2007 will look more like 2006 than the huge drop off Zito experienced after his breakout, and he may even challenge Matsuzaka as the best Asian import in the division.

NL West: Randy Johnson, SP, ARI

With both projection systems placing Arizona at the top of the heap in the NL West with a very young lineup, there are lots of uncertainties on their roster. I could list Chris Young, the rookie centerfielder obtained from Chicago for Javy Vazquez, whose lofty projections under grid much of the team’s hopefulness. Miguel Montero, Stephen Drew, and Carlos Quentin could all receive that same billing. Nonetheless, the other end of the age spectrum interests me a bit more. After Brandon Webb, the Diamondbacks have an experienced (old?) rotation with some legitimate injury concerns. I do not question whether Johnson can be effective- his time in New York was marred from the beginning by his reclusive nature recoiling at the hyperactive Manhattan media. Moving from the AL East to the NL West will make him look significantly better even if he makes no improvements to his performance whatsoever. Combining those two factors, I believe the PECOTA projection of a 3.78 ERA is at the higher end of possibility. The bigger question is how many innings the Big Unit will complete. Since Juan Cruz and Enrique Gonzalez (4.41 and 4.74 ERAs respectively) are the most likely candidates to take his missing starts, it would behoove the D-Backs to find any way possible to get Johnson on the mound every fifth day. In a way, it is a shame that his last couple of dominant years in his previous AZ stint were wasted on a non-contender, and now that he is back on a team on the cusp of dominance, his body may not allow him to fully contribute.

NL Central: Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL

The NL Central is a highly volatile division, coming off of a season where four teams finished bunched within 8.5 games of one another. BP and THT do not see eye-to-eye on much of the division, particularly the Brewers, who take the cake in BP’s version with 85 wins, but finish 7 games back of the Cards and in third place in THT’s standings. And while I could easily select any of the Cardinals’ pitchers after Chris Carpenter for the category of “highly volatile performance,” the team has collected enough realistic possibilities between Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kip Wells, Mark Mulder, and Ryan Franklin that I believe Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa will be able to cobble together enough so-so innings each night to get into the bullpen. Weeks, on the other hand, could be a member of a young squad of Brewers who make the leap one year after many people expected them to do so. BP likes the Brewers in large part due to PECOTA’s projection for weeks of .275/.358/.457 and a 31.7 VORP at second base, numbers that would change the position from a mediocrity last year to a solid strength this season. With Bill Hall, Prince Fielder, and Corey Hart, Weeks could push the Brewers from an average offense to a strong one, and his stagnation could be enough to relegate them to the neighborhood of THT’s projection.

NL East: Wes Helms, 3B, PHI

Only Jose Valentin remains somewhat mysterious for the Mets, unless you count the wholly befuddling starting rotation, but many teams share that same sort of rotational uncertainty. Shane Victorino also faces an important task as the Phillies’ replacement for Bobby Abreu. I chose Wes Helms over these possibilities because he steps into a position that was one of the worst in the majors last year between Abraham Nunez and David Bell. Even performing slightly above replacement level could provide the Phillies enough of a lineup boost to keep their offense at the elite level despite losing Abreu’s on-base skills. BP likes his 2006 success in Florida enough to put him at a 22.9 VORP, splitting time between a majority of the third base duty and some spot duty at first and probably the outfield corners. THT does not like the Phillies chances as well, pegging them for only 81 wins and third in the division. If you see Helms’s success as a platoon-driven fluke- his career OPS is 100 points better against lefties- then I understand you skepticism. Last year, though Helms mashed lefties and righties in his limited duty. A full implement of starts should damped his near-1.000 OPS pretty noticeable, though I still like him as a league-average third baseman, which is something that will make a big difference for the Phillies, possibly enough to win the division.

Positional Hijinx- Redux

Last Spring Training, I borrowed an old Bill James trick to break down the AL Central. The method consists of separating a team’s component parts and ranking them against league or divisional opponents, then awarding wins for the opponents you outrank in each category and losses for each opponent who outranks you. For instance, if a team has the second best closer in the division, that team would be 3-1 for the closer position- ahead 3 and behind 1.

I have no pretensions about the systems failings; it does not accurately reflect the quality of the team, it leaves out the possibility for synergy, and good strategy pulls no weight. Nonetheless, the rankings can engender an interesting debate about a team’s relative strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, it served a pretty useful function for last year, successfully pegging the Tigers as a winning team who would finish one game behind the Twins. The Indians winning percentage was very close to their Pythagorean results, and the Royals met their status as basement shoe-in. I overrated the White Sox, largely in the starting rotation, but I was no more guilty than the rest of the world after that staff led them to their first championship since the last time Don Zimmer needed a haircut. This year, I will try to learn from my mistakes by foreseeing Detroit’s collision with Plexiglas, giving Chicago some potential to rebound, and removing Kansas City from automatic fifth status in every category.

A couple of methodological notes: the positional assignments come from MLB.com’s team-by-team depth charts, which are usually quite reliable. In the case of undetermined spots, I will use my best judgment. Also, my performance projections center around Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecasts, but include other forecasting systems, as well. Without further ado, the tools of ignorance:

Catcher

1. Joe Mauer

2. Victor Martinez

3. Ivan Rodriguez

4. A.J. Pierzynski

5. John Buck/Jason LaRue

Last year, I received some criticism for vaulting Mauer ahead of Martinez before he had proven to be an offensive force. As Mauer has done for the Twins, he rewarded me tremendously for putting my faith in him. His most comparable players, as well as the projection systems, seem to think that he is one of the rare breed that can replicate batting averages well above .300, saving him from the pains of batting average spikes. Martinez is no slouch, outranking one of the best of all time at the position, but he loses points for spending more and more time at first base. Pudge’s defense has re-emerged as preeminent since arriving in Detroit, meaning that the team will happily abide his lack of a batting eye. Pierzynski wins the award for best Pro Wrestling cameo, which does a lot for my longstanding personal adoration, but little for these rankings and less for his team. Lastly, Kansas City better get reacquainted with that transition word.

First Base

1. Justin Morneau

2. Paul Konerko

3. Ryan Shealy

4. Casey Blake

5. Sean Casey

A strong start for the Twins, as it should be when such a disproportionate amount of the offense is tied up in the catcher and first baseman. I would not begrudge an argument for Konerko, but his age is causing his defense to slip while Morneau’s improves. Both have strong offensive games, and I will take the reigning MVP (snicker) since he has less chance of a collapse. After those two, it would be hard to tell that first base is a premium offensive position. Shealy could hit 25 bombs if he gets the playing time, and his ranking third so quickly could mislead some into anticipating a KC rebirth. Blake gave the Indians next to nothing in the outfield last year. Moving further down the defensive spectrum could help us discover what actually is next to nothing.

Second Base

1. Josh Barfield

2. Luis Castillo

3. Placido Polanco

4. Tadahito Iguchi

5. Mark Grudzielanek

PECOTA wants us to step away from the ticking time bomb that is NL to AL player movement, projecting downright wicked things from Barfield in the OBP department. Still, he’s clearly the best long term choice (not the purpose here), and his physical skills, still-developing power, and promising defense make him more appealing than the rest of the geriatric crew. Castillo could benefit from experience on the Fieldturf, especially considering the defensive strides that Bartlett and Morneau made, as well as his own improved position as 2006 went along. Polanco’s a constant injury risk, which is better than what I can say for Grudz right now, since he decided to eliminate the risk and just get injured before the season even got started.

Third Base

1. Alex Gordon

2. Brandon Inge

3. Joe Crede

4. Andy Marte

5. Nick Punto

Jerry Seinfeld used to tell a joke comparing fast-acting and long-lasting cold medicine, asking “When do I need to feel good? Now or later?” Often times, that same conundrum presents itself to teams heavy with prospects, such as last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks. This position is not one of those instances- Gordon is better for the long term, and he is substantially better right now. He will make his money with the bat, looking something like Scott Rolen for the foreseeable future, though he’s no slouch in the field, either, even if he does not rank in the top half of his own division defensively. Inge and Crede have both been postseason heroes of late, making them ripe for overrating, while Marte remains in the dog house about a year and a half after a tremendous amount of hype. To me, they fit quite closely together. Punto’s valiant efforts to chase out Batista were more impressive than Fidel’s, and had a much more desirable outcome. His 2007 prospects are grim, though, as pitchers do not usually pitch around that which cannot hurt them.

Shortstop

1. Carlos Guillen

2. Jhonny Peralta

3. Jason Bartlett

4. Juan Uribe

5. Angel Berroa

These rankings are quite straightforward. Looking back to last year, I think I was mistaken to place Bartlett ahead of Uribe, even if he backed it up with a strong 2/3 of a season. Whereas I see Punto’s 2006 as mostly fluky, I think Bartlett did the opposite, establishing a higher level of performance for himself by way of an offensive breakout. Maybe he will not continually hit .310, but I think he’s firmly ahead of Uribe, and that’s before we consider the implications of being on trial for murder during the season. Ray Lewis has nothing on him. Also, I do not know if it is a poor understanding of sunk costs, the lack of any physically able alternative, or some sort of misguided Bible belt sentiment, but Angel Berroa needs to join his twin Luis Rivas in line for utility jobs.

Left Field

1. Craig Monroe

2. David Delucci

3. Emil Brown

4. Scott Podsednik

5. Rondell White

Yech! Last year, Jason Michaels led this list, and somehow, the division may have devolved even further. Here’s Exhibit A for why one ought to take these rankings with all the salt in a bag of pretzels: is the gap between Craig Monroe and David Delucci the same as the one between Paul Konerko and Ryan Shealy? No, of course not. This difference may result in 1 win over the course of the year, generously. The one at first base could easily be 4-5 wins. In these rankings, though, they have the same value. Also, even though the Twins rank dead last in the category, expect them to get better production over the course of the season than they did last year, when White was apparently still secretly under contract with the Tigers.

Center Field

1. Grady Sizemore

2. Torii Hunter

3. Curtis Granderson

4. David Dejesus

5. Brian Anderson

Number one is easy, number two is hard. Granderson and Hunter are headed in opposite directions. Hunter stays ahead because his diminished defensive ability ranks above that to which Granderson aspires. Also, Granderson’s power potential still has to overcome some holes in his swing, whereas Hunter’s power was realized long ago and remains a strength. One could rank Dejesus higher, as I tried to do last year. Sooner or later, though, he has to have that season that justifies everyone’s high opinion of him. So far, his best OPS+ is 114, and he missed 40 games that year. Sure, Mr. Anderson moves in the field like he can see the Matrix, but at the plate, he looks more like a Newbie than Neo.

Right Field

1. Jermaine Dye

2. Michael Cuddyer

3. Magglio Ordonez

4. Reggie Sanders/Mark Teahen(?)

5. Trot Nixon

Some may say that Ordonez belongs higher on the list. I am more partial to the position that older players with one-year power spikes are subject to regression, so I discount his 2006 ever so slightly. Cuddyer legitimately broke out, and Dye had a terrific career year, so the top two spots belong to legit players, if not huge name superstars. Sanders and Nixon round out the list, and the two may be interchangeable. I would try to find more reasons to distinguish between the two, but really, why?

Designated Hitter

1. Travis Hafner

2. Jim Thome

3. Gary Sheffield

4. Mike Sweeney

5. Jason Kubel

Hafner’s a true stud, one of the best hitters in the game looking like Albert Belle from a decade ago. Thome’s a year older, a year wiser, and a year closer to his back finally giving out for good. The Tigers may have thought more highly of their move to acquire Sheffield than sitting in the middle of the division, but he’s worth more than that considering what he replaces in Detroit. I wanted to rank Jason Kubel ahead of Sweeney because I believe he will come around with a year of building strength in his reconstructed knee, but Sweeney’s biggest drawback is his own health, and it’s hard to rank Kubel ahead of anyone based on the advantages gleaned from his durability.

Bench

1. White Sox

2. Indians

3. Twins

4. Tigers

5. Royals

These rankings are a little more difficult and a lot more subjective. There is no way to approach them without considering how the manager uses his bench, and that’s where Chicago gets most of the advantage. Ozzie knows how to milk value out of guys like Erstad and Mackowiak. Adding a legitimate backup catcher in Toby Hall should only make the bench more effective, preventing Pierzynski’s wear down. The Indians may have the best bench on paper, with Michaels and Choo serving as fantastic OF platoon partners, Garko a strong bat of the bench, and Inglett as a fine infield reserve. The Twins get points for having one of the game’s best backup catchers in Mike Redmond, and adding Jeff Cirillo to caddy for Punto didn’t hurt, either. The Tigers barely relied on their bench last year, and that seemed like Leyland’s prerogative rather than a reflection of its quality, even if the quality was somewhat lacking. Finally, the Royals have made pretty good progress in a year, but depth is one of the last things down the pipeline.

#1 Starter

1. Johan Santana

2. C.C. Sabathia

3. Jose Contreras

4. Gil Meche

5. Kenny Rogers

The Tigers and White Sox will pick up points later in the pitching categories with superior depth. The top of the line has to go to the Twins, though, and Sabathia’s mini-breakout makes him an easy pick for number two over an old and regressing Contreras. The Royals have caught a lot of hell for the Gil Meche signing, so maybe it will come as a bit of good news that he is probably not going to be the worst number one starter in the division. That is, unless Kenny Rogers finds a way to get more of that mysterious substance from the World Series. My guess? It wasn’t pine tar at all, but some residue from some Dianobol from the previous half inning.

#2 Starter

1. Jeremy Bonderman

2. Mark Buehrle

3. Jake Westbrook

4. Boof Bonser

5. Odalis Perez

Bonderman would rank second among my group of aces- a high compliment, but one I am confident he will earn this season. Buehrle’s greatest redeeming grace is that he is in a walk year and could pitch with more of a vengeance. Last year was a disappointment for Westbrook, and he will need more defensive support to keep his batting average on balls in play down since his style will not bring about many easy outs. This group is a solid one up and down, so even though I expect big things from Bonser, number four is as high as he will go.

#3 Starter

1. Justin Verlander

2. Jon Garland

3. Cliff Lee

4. Ramon Ortiz

5. Luke Hudson

A less inspiring group than the one at number 2. Verlander’s star shines brightly enough to carry the torch. The rest of the list screams of unfulfilled potential, though, as Garland and Lee share plenty of platitudes, and two good seasons. Ramon Ortiz is even more depressing, and the best thing the media can find to write about him is that three years of mourning his father might finally be enough to return his focus to baseball.

#4 Starter

1. Javy Vazquez

2. Paul Byrd

3. Nate Robertson

4. Scott Elarton

5. Carlos Silva

If Ozzie would stop playing chicken with Vazquez by pushing him beyond his 6 inning comfort zone, the White Sox would be better for it. He is certainly the most talented of these five pitchers, even if he’s not built in the endurance mold that the Sox championship pitchers came from. Byrd and Robertson could switch places without much objection, and I moved Elarton up from MLB’s depth chart, because he seemed like the last legitimate starter on the list.

#5 Starter

1. Jeremy Sowers

2. Matt Garza

3. Mike Maroth

4. Gavin Floyd

5. Zack Greinke

Sowers, like Westbrook, induces more than his share of groundballs and will rely on improvements by Peralta to stay at a high level. Matt Garza is one of three or four young starters who will probably see some time for the Twins, a fact that mitigates the disastrous impact of having both Silva and Ortiz on the staff if one of them falters badly enough for Ron Gardenhire to bat an eyelash. The last two spots should really receive a grade of “Incomplete,” as Floyd may or may not start, and remains an unknown commodity since moving into Don Cooper’s tutelage. Greinke, also, is difficult to project since taking a mental health year is not a common practice for young star pitchers.

Closer

1. Joe Nathan

2. Bobby Jenks

3. Ocatvio Dotel

4. Joe Borowski

5. Todd Jones

Nathan is probably the best in the game now that Mariano’s started to finally age every so slightly. Jenks is no slouch, either, and has a strong setup crew. Dotel ranks this highly by default- he can strike out batters and the others cannot. Is Joe Borowski the new Bob Wickman, or is Bob Wickman the old Joe Borowski? I can’t remember. Finally, the best thing Todd Jones could do for the Tigers this year is to injure himself quickly. Forget prohibitions, there should be incentive clauses in this guy’s contract to do all of the snowboarding, motorcycle riding, and venison carrying he can do.

Bullpen at Large

1. Twins

2. White Sox

3. Tigers

4. Indians

5. Royals

The Twins are the winners and still the heavyweight champions of the bullpen wars. Rick Anderson is slipping something in their Gatorade to make guys like Reyes perform at a high level. With Rincon, Crain, and Neshek joining him to make a situationally dominant pen with clearly defined roles, there’s not a lot of room for them to be beaten. Not that the Sox aren’t trying, adding MacDougal late last season and Masset early in the off-season to help them miss as many bats as possible. The Tigers return a solid core minus Jamie Walker. You could say that Zumaya by himself should top this list, but the middle innings are less certain, and I heard that Guitar Hero II is even better than the first one. The Indians tried last year to build a pen out of broken down veteran spare parts and failed, so this year’s experiment gets to prove itself before getting any extra credit. Lastly, the Royals have collected lots of live arms and interesting stories, now they will have to try to win some games for a change.

Final Standings:

Cleveland 42-26

Chicago 39-29

Minnesota 38-30

Detroit 36-32

Kansas City 15-53

What Did We Learn?

The overall profile looks strikingly similar to the one I completed last year. Many of the faces have stayed the same, and my impressions are probably slower to change than their actual abilities, meaning young players have to prove that their breakouts were not flukes, and older players’ skills may diminish faster than I notice. Still, the ordering looks fairly reasonable, with a few caveats that I will explain team by team.

Cleveland- So the Indians have the best positional average, does that mean I am ready to anoint them division champs? Yes and no. I remain ambivalent about the Indians, because they have looked better on paper than on the field for three years now, and seem to be doing the same things that didn’t work last year- platoon players at power positions and pick relievers off of the scrap heap. Those strategies work in Strat-o-matic leagues, and it seems like they should work in the big leagues too, but they just haven’t worked in Cleveland yet. In fact, they have failed so badly that the Indians have underperformed their own run differential badly. Call it unexplained variance or call it luck; there is some disturbing thread here that has to end this year, or else it will become a disturbing trend.

Chicago- The White Sox earned a lot of their points on the strength of the middle of their rotation and the bullpen. Kenny Williams seems to have identified these areas as ones where he thinks he can get the most value. Ozzie knows how to use these assets to his advantage, so they should be able to press them for quite a few wins. Sure, the team is getting older, but I am not throwing in the towel yet, because the offense will be able to put up runs in that stadium, and the bullpen is looking better and better all of the time.

Minnesota- They look to be within striking distance in these standings, and the availability of two starters who are quite clearly better than their 3 or 4 starter would seem to make them upwardly mobile. On the other hand, the Twins rank dead last in four categories, and fourth in two others. They are the sort of stars and scrubs roster that could go bang at any given moment. Imagine if Joe Mauer or Johan Santana went down for the season in May. I know the front office has shown a great deal of ingenuity, but things have to go exactly right for this team to contend, and that does not seem like the smartest bet.

Detroit- The Tigers are exactly the type of team that this system would tend to undervalue. Their team defense does not show up at all, even though that collective skills have proven itself invaluable to the last two AL Champs. Jim Leyland’s managerial skill, especially the motivational aspects, do not show up in the least, even though it would be hard to argue that he has no effect on his players. The Tigers also place a lot of very good players further down on some tougher lists: Pudge Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, and the bullpen all rank third, but could all be ranked higher in another division. That is to say, it is not always the position of the ranking; sometimes the relative placement within those rankings matters as well. A small adjustment for these standings would put them ahead of Minnesota and Chicago, and I tend to believe that is where they will end up.

Kansas City- Even if the Royals remain far behind the rest of the division, they are slowly making headway. Players like Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen have promise, something that Allard Baird’s teams did not have. Continued investment in player development, and the commitment to trying in the free agent market- as evidenced by the Meche deal- could lead to better days ahead. It could also lead to many more last place finishes, especially in a tough division, but that seed of hope is something that was notably absent the past few years.

Final Projected Standings

Cleveland- 91-71

Detroit- 89-73

Minnesota- 87-75

Chicago- 85-77

Kansas City- 68-94

NL East: Phul of Surprises, or Same Old New York Story?

Baseball rivalries can make bring a great deal of additional intrigue to September and October games, creating meaningful playoff and pennant races that go down in the history books. Yankees-Red Sox games can brighten up the mid-season doldrums that drag around the All-Star Break, and the first rivalry game of the year always carries some added interest. But picking a fight in February seems a little unnecessary, doesn’t it Jimmy Rollins? When Rollins said he thinks that, “We are the team to beat in the NL East- finally,” he touched off controversy with the defending champs of that division, giving bulletin board material for a team that may not need it. More than inflammatory, I saw Rollins’ comments as provocative, touching on an interesting debate that is nowhere near as open-and-shut as Rollins seems to think. Even though the Mets did a “run and hide” act in the East last season, the Phillies made a run at the end, and may have done more to help themselves in the off-season. Today, I would like to look at some of the issues at play in the division, and who could in the driver’s seat to represent the National League in the World Series.

Before looking at the teams who have the best chance at coming out on top, I will explain why the others do not quite measure up. First, the Nationals should be the easiest to disqualify, since they have the longest way to go. A 71 win team with 70 Pythagorean wins, the Nationals find themselves in the midst of a rebuilding projecting, letting Alfonso Soriano walk and trading Livan Hernandez since late last season. With last year’s second-best offensive weapon, Nick Johnson, in a precarious injury position and no recognizable starting pitching beyond John Patterson, the nationals do not look like a contender for this year or next. With building blocks like Felipe Lopez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Austin Kearns, as well as Chad Cordero as trade-bait, there is hope for the future in Washington, but the future is not now.

Florida may seem like a breakout candidate, seeing that they won about 20 more games than expected last season, and the young team will only be more experienced for this one, without too many ill effects from aging. On the other hand, Florida got lucky last year in a lot of ways. Dan Uggla has almost no hope of repeating his breakout rookie season; think of him as a latter-day Paul LoDuca, shifted from catcher to second, but with the similar age and developmental patterns. More importantly, the pitching staff had an exceptional run of health last year for a team full of young arms without much experience with those kinds of workloads. Considering that the Marlins outpaced expectations so radically last year makes it even more wise to use discretion. I think they may be capable of approaching 80 wins once again, but without much more upside.

For the first time in about a generation, the Braves start the season without a title to defend. I like the team’s upside after fixing their bullpen problems with live arms Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez- precisely the kinds of guys they missed last year when they relied to heavily on sinker-slider righties. I also like the idea of turning over some of their offensive holes to younger players from within the system, such as Scott Thorman and Kelly Johnson, who may actually show a great deal of improvement. On the other hand, it will be tough for Brian McCann, Edgar Renteria, and Chipper Jones to live up to last season’s success. More importantly, the rotation has a great deal of uncertainty after John Smoltz. Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, Chuck James, and Kyle Davies have varying degrees of uncertainty and reasons for it, though not a one would be on my list of breakout candidates for this season. The best thing one could say about this team is that they return a decent offense and a much improved bullpen to a roster that finished with 85 Pythagorean wins a year ago. I still have them pegged for about 80-82 wins, but a small jump could come from one surprising pitcher, making them a dark horse to contend for the first time in a very long time.

So that leaves the Mets and the Phillies, two older teams who chose to tweak last year rather than do anything drastic this off-season. It is no surprise, but the Mets’ biggest problem going into the season is the loss of Pedro Martinez for at least a couple of months after rotator cuff surgery. With him performing at the same level he did last year, the Mets could be a 90+ win team once again, since they can chain out someone like Chan Ho Park from an already thin rotation. Without Pedro, the Mets have a paper thin rotation, requiring Park and Oliver Perez to gain the sort of consistency which neither has achieved; Tom Glavine must remain healthy as he gets older, and do so on the heels of what looked like a career ending injury last August. All of these issues, and we have not even considered the fact that John Maine is the team’s number two starter.

What concerns me even more about the Mets is the possible regression of the bullpen. One could argue that Rick Peterson has a unique ability to milk so-so relief arms into dominant middle relievers, but getting tremendous value out of Pedro Feliciano, Darren Oliver, Chad Bradford, and Guillermo Mota is doing one better than turning water into wine. I like Billy Wagner and Aaron Heilman quite a bit, but I do not trust that Feliciano, Mota, and Schoenweis can once again make up the core of a very strong bullpen.

Offensively, I think this year’s team and last year’s team will roughly push. LoDuca, Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, and Moises Alou established themselves long ago and should not surprise anyone. Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and David Wright are among the best in the game at their respective positions, and should combine for a VORP over 150 runs without breaking a sweat. That leaves the somewhat unresolved second base situation, where Jose Valentin will have to replicate a surprising 2006 to keep the infield on the level.

Altogether, I am not terribly worried about the Mets’ offense, since I think Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are enough to keep any offense afloat, and Delgado and Alou make for nice complements. The runs scored total may not look so incredible in Shea, but it would look pretty remarkable in a neutral stadium. The stadium will have the opposite effect on the pitching staff, making it look reasonable when it is actually quite mediocre. That regression in terms of run prevention could be enough to push them below 90 wins. The only factor that could offset that loss may be the early arrival of Phil Humber or Mike Pelfrey to the rotation, which could have the surprising effect of Francisco Liriano or Justin Verlander a year ago, if to a far lesser degree.

Why, then, is 88 or 89 wins such a problem in a division where their top rivals won only 85 games last year, and got a year older? Call it blind optimism toward a team I have expected to win for the last half of a decade, or you could call it a team that took a well-guided step forward in a division that does not have an obviously dominant team. Although Howard, Utley, and Rollins had phenomenal years at the top of roster, the Phillies had some serious deadweight dragging them down at the other end. Between the third base dreg and a rough patch at the end of the rotation, the Phils could make a substantial upgrade by getting replacement-level production at those positions.

Pat Gillick made his reputation by plugging holes on teams full of veterans to push them over the line, by snagging Jack Morris and Rickey Henderson in consecutive years for Toronto, adding Harold Baines to the Orioles, and bringing John Olerud and Kaz Sasaki to Seattle. His teams rarely dominated immediately after his arrival, but he has done a fantastic job plugging holes, and he may have done the same thing in Philadelphia. After adding Tom Gordon to upgrade the bullpen last year, he got a great deal for Freddy Garcia this year, especially considering the market for starting pitching. Factor in a less-than-suicidal deal for Adam Eaton, and the Phillies have the type of extra deep rotation that brought the White Sox and Tigers to prominence in the last couple of years. After enduring more than sixty starts at replacement level or below from Randy Wolf, Scott Mathieson, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, and others, a group of average starting pitchers could make a world of difference. Brett Myers makes for a legitimate number one, if not on the level of Santana and Halladay. Garcia and Hamels are above average for the middle of the rotation, and Eaton, Moyer, and Lieber should combine for at least two solid seasons at the back end. Altogether, I think the Phillies can get at least four wins out of their upgraded rotation, even if the stats do not look outstanding in their South Philly bandbox.

The bullpen and offense will not change radically, although I like adding Wes Helms to play above the sub-human production they got out of Antonio Perez last year. Personally, I will miss the steady diet of fellow Fargoan Chris Coste, though Rod Barajas and Carlos Ruiz should approximate the value they got out of the position last year. Even the trio of Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth ought to do a reasonable impersonation of half a season of Bobby Abreu and the first two in that group, at least according to PECOTA’s projections. The bullpen is thin behind Gordon, Geary, and Madson (who is much better suited for his bullpen role, which we have seen time and again in his performance record), but Fabrio Castro and Eude Brito are better than nothing, and it is a fair bet that they can find some cheap talent along the way.

More than anything, I am struck by how much they closed the gap between the Mets and themselves toward the end of the season. In terms of Pythagorean wins, they finished five games behind the Mets instead of 12. Do the changes in the teams rotations amount to a five game swing? I peg the Phillies for a four or five win improvement based on the strength and depth of their rotation, and I think the lack of those two qualities will cost the Mets as many games in the opposite direction. Maybe that is not enough improvement to warrant Rollins telling the world that his team is a favorite, but it is certainly enough to create debate, stoke the fires of competition, and stretch rivalry season into the depths of spring training.

Final Projected Standings	W-L
Philadelphia Phillies	89-73
New York Mets	87-75
Atlanta Braves	79-83
Florida Marlins	78-84
Washington Nationals	67-95