NL East: Phul of Surprises, or Same Old New York Story?

Baseball rivalries can make bring a great deal of additional intrigue to September and October games, creating meaningful playoff and pennant races that go down in the history books. Yankees-Red Sox games can brighten up the mid-season doldrums that drag around the All-Star Break, and the first rivalry game of the year always carries some added interest. But picking a fight in February seems a little unnecessary, doesn’t it Jimmy Rollins? When Rollins said he thinks that, “We are the team to beat in the NL East- finally,” he touched off controversy with the defending champs of that division, giving bulletin board material for a team that may not need it. More than inflammatory, I saw Rollins’ comments as provocative, touching on an interesting debate that is nowhere near as open-and-shut as Rollins seems to think. Even though the Mets did a “run and hide” act in the East last season, the Phillies made a run at the end, and may have done more to help themselves in the off-season. Today, I would like to look at some of the issues at play in the division, and who could in the driver’s seat to represent the National League in the World Series.

Before looking at the teams who have the best chance at coming out on top, I will explain why the others do not quite measure up. First, the Nationals should be the easiest to disqualify, since they have the longest way to go. A 71 win team with 70 Pythagorean wins, the Nationals find themselves in the midst of a rebuilding projecting, letting Alfonso Soriano walk and trading Livan Hernandez since late last season. With last year’s second-best offensive weapon, Nick Johnson, in a precarious injury position and no recognizable starting pitching beyond John Patterson, the nationals do not look like a contender for this year or next. With building blocks like Felipe Lopez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Austin Kearns, as well as Chad Cordero as trade-bait, there is hope for the future in Washington, but the future is not now.

Florida may seem like a breakout candidate, seeing that they won about 20 more games than expected last season, and the young team will only be more experienced for this one, without too many ill effects from aging. On the other hand, Florida got lucky last year in a lot of ways. Dan Uggla has almost no hope of repeating his breakout rookie season; think of him as a latter-day Paul LoDuca, shifted from catcher to second, but with the similar age and developmental patterns. More importantly, the pitching staff had an exceptional run of health last year for a team full of young arms without much experience with those kinds of workloads. Considering that the Marlins outpaced expectations so radically last year makes it even more wise to use discretion. I think they may be capable of approaching 80 wins once again, but without much more upside.

For the first time in about a generation, the Braves start the season without a title to defend. I like the team’s upside after fixing their bullpen problems with live arms Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez- precisely the kinds of guys they missed last year when they relied to heavily on sinker-slider righties. I also like the idea of turning over some of their offensive holes to younger players from within the system, such as Scott Thorman and Kelly Johnson, who may actually show a great deal of improvement. On the other hand, it will be tough for Brian McCann, Edgar Renteria, and Chipper Jones to live up to last season’s success. More importantly, the rotation has a great deal of uncertainty after John Smoltz. Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, Chuck James, and Kyle Davies have varying degrees of uncertainty and reasons for it, though not a one would be on my list of breakout candidates for this season. The best thing one could say about this team is that they return a decent offense and a much improved bullpen to a roster that finished with 85 Pythagorean wins a year ago. I still have them pegged for about 80-82 wins, but a small jump could come from one surprising pitcher, making them a dark horse to contend for the first time in a very long time.

So that leaves the Mets and the Phillies, two older teams who chose to tweak last year rather than do anything drastic this off-season. It is no surprise, but the Mets’ biggest problem going into the season is the loss of Pedro Martinez for at least a couple of months after rotator cuff surgery. With him performing at the same level he did last year, the Mets could be a 90+ win team once again, since they can chain out someone like Chan Ho Park from an already thin rotation. Without Pedro, the Mets have a paper thin rotation, requiring Park and Oliver Perez to gain the sort of consistency which neither has achieved; Tom Glavine must remain healthy as he gets older, and do so on the heels of what looked like a career ending injury last August. All of these issues, and we have not even considered the fact that John Maine is the team’s number two starter.

What concerns me even more about the Mets is the possible regression of the bullpen. One could argue that Rick Peterson has a unique ability to milk so-so relief arms into dominant middle relievers, but getting tremendous value out of Pedro Feliciano, Darren Oliver, Chad Bradford, and Guillermo Mota is doing one better than turning water into wine. I like Billy Wagner and Aaron Heilman quite a bit, but I do not trust that Feliciano, Mota, and Schoenweis can once again make up the core of a very strong bullpen.

Offensively, I think this year’s team and last year’s team will roughly push. LoDuca, Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, and Moises Alou established themselves long ago and should not surprise anyone. Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and David Wright are among the best in the game at their respective positions, and should combine for a VORP over 150 runs without breaking a sweat. That leaves the somewhat unresolved second base situation, where Jose Valentin will have to replicate a surprising 2006 to keep the infield on the level.

Altogether, I am not terribly worried about the Mets’ offense, since I think Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are enough to keep any offense afloat, and Delgado and Alou make for nice complements. The runs scored total may not look so incredible in Shea, but it would look pretty remarkable in a neutral stadium. The stadium will have the opposite effect on the pitching staff, making it look reasonable when it is actually quite mediocre. That regression in terms of run prevention could be enough to push them below 90 wins. The only factor that could offset that loss may be the early arrival of Phil Humber or Mike Pelfrey to the rotation, which could have the surprising effect of Francisco Liriano or Justin Verlander a year ago, if to a far lesser degree.

Why, then, is 88 or 89 wins such a problem in a division where their top rivals won only 85 games last year, and got a year older? Call it blind optimism toward a team I have expected to win for the last half of a decade, or you could call it a team that took a well-guided step forward in a division that does not have an obviously dominant team. Although Howard, Utley, and Rollins had phenomenal years at the top of roster, the Phillies had some serious deadweight dragging them down at the other end. Between the third base dreg and a rough patch at the end of the rotation, the Phils could make a substantial upgrade by getting replacement-level production at those positions.

Pat Gillick made his reputation by plugging holes on teams full of veterans to push them over the line, by snagging Jack Morris and Rickey Henderson in consecutive years for Toronto, adding Harold Baines to the Orioles, and bringing John Olerud and Kaz Sasaki to Seattle. His teams rarely dominated immediately after his arrival, but he has done a fantastic job plugging holes, and he may have done the same thing in Philadelphia. After adding Tom Gordon to upgrade the bullpen last year, he got a great deal for Freddy Garcia this year, especially considering the market for starting pitching. Factor in a less-than-suicidal deal for Adam Eaton, and the Phillies have the type of extra deep rotation that brought the White Sox and Tigers to prominence in the last couple of years. After enduring more than sixty starts at replacement level or below from Randy Wolf, Scott Mathieson, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, and others, a group of average starting pitchers could make a world of difference. Brett Myers makes for a legitimate number one, if not on the level of Santana and Halladay. Garcia and Hamels are above average for the middle of the rotation, and Eaton, Moyer, and Lieber should combine for at least two solid seasons at the back end. Altogether, I think the Phillies can get at least four wins out of their upgraded rotation, even if the stats do not look outstanding in their South Philly bandbox.

The bullpen and offense will not change radically, although I like adding Wes Helms to play above the sub-human production they got out of Antonio Perez last year. Personally, I will miss the steady diet of fellow Fargoan Chris Coste, though Rod Barajas and Carlos Ruiz should approximate the value they got out of the position last year. Even the trio of Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth ought to do a reasonable impersonation of half a season of Bobby Abreu and the first two in that group, at least according to PECOTA’s projections. The bullpen is thin behind Gordon, Geary, and Madson (who is much better suited for his bullpen role, which we have seen time and again in his performance record), but Fabrio Castro and Eude Brito are better than nothing, and it is a fair bet that they can find some cheap talent along the way.

More than anything, I am struck by how much they closed the gap between the Mets and themselves toward the end of the season. In terms of Pythagorean wins, they finished five games behind the Mets instead of 12. Do the changes in the teams rotations amount to a five game swing? I peg the Phillies for a four or five win improvement based on the strength and depth of their rotation, and I think the lack of those two qualities will cost the Mets as many games in the opposite direction. Maybe that is not enough improvement to warrant Rollins telling the world that his team is a favorite, but it is certainly enough to create debate, stoke the fires of competition, and stretch rivalry season into the depths of spring training.

Final Projected Standings	W-L
Philadelphia Phillies	89-73
New York Mets	87-75
Atlanta Braves	79-83
Florida Marlins	78-84
Washington Nationals	67-95