Saving Bonds?

The logical train follows a reasonable enough track. The Giants, desperate for free agent reinforcements in what is likely to be Barry Bonds’s last season, had about $18 million left in their budget for 2007. Meanwhile, a host of teams were scrambling to sign the top remaining free agent- one of the best in the class as a whole-, offering somewhere in the vicinity of $15-16 million in average annual value. Since the Giants have little incentive to plan for anything beyond 2007, with GM Brian Sabean at the end of his contract, and Barry Bonds at the end of the road, San Francisco took the plunge on Barry Zito, trying to seize a somewhat depressed NL West in a last gasp before owner Peter McGowan pulls the plug.

Like I said, the plan makes enough sense, especially since Sabean long ago decided to mortgage the entire franchise’s future on the last productive years of Bonds’s career. With no cheap help or big-time trade bait coming down the pipeline, the team had the option of settling for the second division or spending big enough in the free agent market for one Promethean grasp at the postseason. Not to mix mythologies, but the problem with the Giants’ strategy may be that it is more Sisuphysian than Promethean, that the Giants face such an uphill battle that nobody on this year’s free agent market was going to make up the difference.

Before getting into San Fran’s roster movement, consider the ultimate goal: to win the NL West and make it into the postseason sweepstakes. Last year, 88 wins took the division, a two-way tie between San Diego and Los Angeles. In terms of run differential, the Padres finished behind the Dodgers’ Pythagorean record of 88-74 by two projected wins, putting the Dodgers in the best theoretical position going forward. With an aging lineup and the loss of J.D. Drew- replaced by the nearly useless Juan Pierre- the Dodgers project to no more than last year’s 88 wins. With San Diego making improvements in their rotation and their offensive balance, I see them as the top returning candidate in the division, projecting to about 90 wins. Arizona’s youngsters growing into maturity should put them on the same plane; suffice to say the bar for the division will be set somewhere in the neighborhood of 90-72, and the Giants have to make a 14 win improvement in both their actual and Pythagorean records to challenge.

Last year, the Giants got decent contributions from a few positions, but had deadweight at far too many lineup spots. Bonds, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, and Moises Alou all made positive contributions, but Randy Winn manned various OF positions at replacement level, and Mark Sweeney, Kevin Frandsen, Mike Matheny, Shea Hillenbrand, Lance Niekro, Jose Vizcaino, and Pedro Feliz all pulled down the lineup more than the theoretical quadruple-A player who is readily available to fill those holes. A team with that many wasted positions is going to have a difficult time making much traction toward the playoffs no matter how good the rest of the team is. The pitching was quite solid, with Jason Schmidt as a legitimate number one, Matt Cain as a solid number two, and Noah Lowry, Brad Hennessey, Matt Morris, and Jamey Wright were all better than bad, giving them more rotational depth than most other teams.

Some may say that the Giants’ task has to be reducing the dreg from five or six offensive positions, and that strategy is one feasible approach, but the real formula boils down to nothing more than runs scored and runs allowed, and any progress on either front will get them closer to the playoffs. It may be easier to gain twenty runs- about 2 wins- over a third baseman who cost the team 8 runs last year than to gain the same amount in run prevention over a fifth starter who was better than league average, but if pitchers are more readily available, then a signing on that front could do more for the team. Altogether, the team made a handful of marginal transactions that give them other options at all of those disastrous failed positions. The big move, though, bolsters the rotation, where the team has to find a way to replace the underrated Jason Schmidt.

The question at hand becomes whether the team as a whole has improved enough to go from a true 76 win team to at least an 86 win team to get themselves into contention by the end of the year. After scoring 746 runs last year, I think the Giants can cross the plate a few more times in 2007. Last year was a great year for Ray Durham and a terrible year for Randy Winn, and the two will converge to some degree in 2007, combining for about 50 runs above replacement just as they did the last year. Trevor Linden and Dave Roberts, though not stars, should combine to approximate the 27 runs and 4 wins they got out of Moises Alou last year, at least when projecting generously. In the infield, the combination of Pedro Feliz, Rich Aurilia, and Ryan Klesko should make some improvement over Mark Sweeney, Shea Hillenbrand, and Pedro Feliz. The inclusion of Feliz on both lists shows a continued problem of getting on base and getting as many plate appearances as possible for Barry Bonds, but Hillenbrand and Sweeney were so unfortunately awful last year that the team is bound for a 20-30 run improvement on that side of the ledger. At catcher, where the Giants made something of a splash by nabbing Ben Molina from Toronto, San Fran is merely treading water. Molina and Eliezer Alfonzo were both worth 3.3 wins above replacement level last year, an imperfect measure, but one that paints a pretty obvious picture of where the team is headed. Getting Mike Matheny out of the lineup is a positive, though spending money on Ben Molina will cost them enough in the field that the swap will make little progress toward victories. Still, if the lineup stays mostly healthy, the Giants have enough depth that 800 runs is not out of the question, and I would expect about 785.

Looking at the offense skirts the real issue: does Barry Zito make the team a contender? Last year, Zito pitched in a pretty good pitcher’s park and in front of a very good defense, accumulating 49 runs above replacement level. This year, in front of an average defense and in a great pitcher’s park, Zito should approximate his previous level of performance. A declining strikeout rate is a cause for concern, just as it predicted the failure of Zito’s former mate Mark Mulder in St. Louis. Nonetheless, Zito profiles to be a pretty consistent starter who, if not an elite starter, verges on the relatively small group of the best pitchers in the game. The under-hyped flipside of the Zito acquisition is the fact that the Giants lost another pitcher this off-season who belongs to that same elite club as Zito, Jason Schmidt. Although less durable, Schmidt’s strong strikeout rate indicates continued success heading forward. If the Giants really wanted to overspend for a pitcher who will help them win now, they had one on the roster who had a nearly identical value to Zito last year. Adding Zito to a rotation that already included Schmidt would give the Giants an outstanding rotation. As it stands, they have an above-average rotation that could see improvements from Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, and should get pretty consistent and predictable performances out of Lowry and Morris. Without big changes to the bullpen, I think they Giants will once again allow about the same number of runs, about 780 instead of 790 due to some small improvements from the younger pitchers in the rotation.

Finally, even though the Giants do not have as high of a ceiling as the Mets or Rangers, the Giants did not have to pay $50 million more than either of them to get Zito. Staying in the same metro area has to count for something, and more importantly, if the Giants were the only team willing to got to $19 million a year, they should not have had to be the only team to go to seven years, as well. I do not know the specifics of all of the other offers, but I have trouble believing that a six year deal with the same average value would not have got the contract done.

All told, that leaves the Giants somewhere between 80 and 82 wins, not a bad team, and not a contender. With a few lucky breaks, they could stay in the race up until the trade deadline, when they could acquire a better third base option or some upgrades in the bullpen. On the other hand, this team is old and brittle, and could very easily lose one or two interesting players for extended periods of time. In that case, or even with some bad luck in translating runs into victories, the season could go downhill in a hurry. Since the Giants have reached their payroll limit already, I hesitate to endorse a signing that has a small chance of letting the team compete for one season before becoming an obvious boondoggle immediately afterward. In other words, if a team is trying to win now at the expense of the future, they better project to better than a .500 record, which is the best I can see for the Giants.