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In a frenetic off-season distinguished by escalating salaries and rapid player movement, some teams have panicked, overpaying for whatever they can find on the market for fear of entering the season empty handed. It is the same psychological response as a fantasy baseball owner picking a closer or a catcher three rounds too early because someone else started a run. The groupthink mentality exhibits fear more than it does careful planning, and deals made in reaction to the rest of the market seldom turn out to be valuable bargains. More often than not, regrettable deals come out of these circumstances, such as the Yankees scrambling to sign Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano two years ago after the starting pitching market thinned considerably. In this regard, I remain skeptical about spending $70 million on J.D. Drew, or nearly $50 million on Kei Igawa, because both teams rushed to fill holes with sub-optimal solutions whose primary virtues were availability.

On the other hand, a few teams have stayed out of the fray, resisting long-term mistakes for short-term gratification. These teams are not necessarily set at every position, but their front offices have shown enough discipline to avoid making moves that could cripple the team down the road, instead waiting to find a solution that actually fits into the larger plan. Sure, there is an impulse to “win now” present in every franchise and fan base, and knowingly putting a team on the field that is not as competitive as it could be seems like heresy. Nonetheless, teams should shoot for championships, not just one nor two more wins to sneak above .500. Waiting for the right fit at the right time can be more gratifying for teams and for fans. And if you think spending sprees always make the team better, try asking Yankee fans how the feel about those Pavano and Wright deals I mentioned earlier.

Since markets fluctuate in cycles, buying big in a major inflationary season only makes sense if the team has tremendous resources and projects to the cusp of championship contention. Increasing payroll by adding quality players at positions of need could make sense in Boston or New York, since those teams can swallow regrettable contracts more easily than, say, Kansas City, and both teams remain quite close to championship caliber. On the other hand, a few teams have been noticeably absent from the fray this off-season, sitting back and waiting for the market to come to them. Today, I will highlight the virtues of patience in three smart front offices.

Minnesota Twins- Here’s the breakdown of the Twins off-season activity: signed Jeff Cirillo, announced Brad Radke’s retirement. Losing Radke will have an impact on the team, but Terry Ryan knows that going with a combination Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey after Johan Santana makes more economic sense than shelling out $50 million for 5 years of a marginal upgrade on one of those players. It is not as if the team is without holes; no team wants to enter the season with so much rotational uncertainty, and both Lew Ford and Nick Punto remain at the top of the depth chart at their respective positions. Players like Jason Jennings and Gary Matthews would certainly make the Twins better in 2007, but shelling out prospects and cash would hamstring the team in its ability to stay competitive for several years after it. Saving enough money to retain Mauer, Santana, and Morneau makes far more sense for the franchise’s competitive viability and marketability. If Terry Ryan’s restraint in this year’s inflationary market allows the team to keep 2-3 of those marquee names through their primes, it would be well worth the cost of a couple of wins this season. If the team remains competitive through July and has to fill a hole at SP or LF, they can try to address the need then in hopes that the market insanity has settled down a bit.

Team	Added (trade)	Lost (trade)	Added (FA)	Lost (FA)
Minnesota	None	None	Jeff Cirillo	Shannon Stewart Rondell White Brad Radke Phil Nevin
Chicago WS	Andrew Sisco Gavin Floyd David Aardsma	Ross Gload Freddy Garcia Neil Cotts	Toby Hall	Sandy Alomar Dustin Hermanson David Riske
Arizona	Dana Eveland Doug Davis Dave Krynzel	Johnny Estrada Claudio Vargas Greg Aquino	None	Miguel Batista Craig Counsell Damion Easley Luis Gonzalez

Chicago White Sox- One factor making the Twins’ passiveness more palatable is the fact that their divisional rivals have remained relatively quiet as well. Detroit added an impact bat in Gary Sheffield, but that move may just keep them above water, as the starting rotation figures to regress somewhat in 2007, just like Chicago’s did in 2006. That same reasoning must have crossed Kenny Williams’s mind in making his forward-thinking trade of Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia. Among the Sox 2006 starters, Garcia was the second oldest and probably the least likely to have a dominant 2007, considering the miles on his odometer and his diminishing strikeout rate. Garcia will still improve the Philadelphia rotation next year, but the pre-arb contracts that Williams got back for Pat Gillick have become much more valuable with free agent contracts skyrocketing. Additionally, the Sox passed up the opportunity to spend big money on an upgrade of either Scott Podsednik or Brian Anderson in the outfield, keeping their options open and their costs down in case they find a more cost-efficient solution down the road. Meanwhile, Williams has made little moves, such as improving the backup catching fiasco from last year by adding Toby Hall, and grabbing live arms like Andrew Sisco and David Aardsma to increase the bullpen’s upside. Like the Twins, the Sox have avoided making decisions that they will regret two or three years from now, sticking with certainty and allowing themselves an opportunity to continue improving.

Arizona Diamondbacks- Unlike Minnesota and Chicago, Arizona’s offseason additions and losses make quite a long list. They made a trade with Milwaukee that returned two potential starters in Dana Eveland and Doug Davis. They also waved good-bye to the remnants of the pre-Josh Byrnes era strategy of surplus veterans. Watching Miguel Batista, Craig Counsell, and Luis Gonzalez leave town made the team significantly younger, but more importantly freed up playing time for their army of young studs. The D-Backs wisely sat back while their roster turned over, leaving Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chad Tracy, and Chris Snyder as full time starters. With Justin Upton still in the pipeline, the D-Backs have a tremendous future ahead of them, and it makes eminently more sense to find out just how good this team can be while saving some resources for upgrades later down the road. It is entirely possible that Arizona will challenge Los Angeles for the NL West title this season with this roster, but if they do not, they have enough roster and payroll flexibility to make the minor moves next year that could push them over the top. So even though they have seen more players come and go than either Chicago or Minnesota, the D-Backs have similarly kept their options open for a time when salary inflation is less rampant and their own roster is more certain.