Doomed to Repeat

Terry Ryan got remarkably lucky last season. After the Twins started miserably through the season’s first two months, it looked as if Ryan had squandered great years from Johan Santana and Joe Mauer by trusting rotten veterans Tony Batista, Juan Castro, and Rondell White with lineup spots even though they had a solid track record of being washed up. The hole that Ryan’s acquisitions dug went so deep that the Twins required other worldly performances incongruent with previous expectations from Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano, Jason Bartlett, Jason Tyner, and Nick Punto just to take back the division on the season’s last day. I say Ryan was lucky not because the team won the division- after all, he assembled the roster that played better than any other from June through September- but because his players expunged his record of Batista, Castro, and White. Ryan would have taken the brunt of the criticism for a season wasted if not for a tremendous rebound; instead, that trio is a bad memory with few serious consequences.

So as long as Ryan’s record stands clear of his past heinous crimes against baseball, why bring it up now? Because, just like German remilitarization between the Wars, Ryan seems determined to prove that his past failings were mere anomalies, not manifestations of predictable realities. By signing and giving rotation spots to Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson, the Twins have set themselves back considerably relative to where they would project in a world with Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, and Glen Perkins slotting in behind Santana and Carlos Silva. After finally building an offense with more punch than Chris Byrd, and a bullpen that projects as one of the very best in baseball, the Twins have regressed considerably in the rotation, jeopardizing their candidacy as a returning favorite in the cavernously deep AL Central.

Miserable as Ponson and Ortiz have been the last couple of years, there is some upside to each one. Ponson exhibits a propensity to induce groundballs- 50% GB rate, better than all of the other candidates- in front of a competent infield defense. Also, his predicted .324 BABIP assumes the backing of the atrocious Yankee infield, making his probable ERA a little better than what PECOTA believes. In Ortiz’s case, Little Pedro has developed some dependable control in his maturity, projecting to only 2.4 bases on balls per nine innings, a very Minnesotan probability.

Now, for the harsh reality of Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections. Equivalent ERAs- Ortiz, 5.38; Ponson, 5.26. K/9- Ortiz, 4.5; Ponson, 4.6. H/9- Ortiz, 10.2; Ponson, 11.0. IP- Ortiz, 110 2/3; Ponson, 79 1/3. Value Over Replacement Player- Ortiz, 3.6; Ponson, 0.8.

One additional concern: Notice that the pitchers project to less than 200 IP combined. In fact, PECOTA sees Ponson as a swingman instead of a legitimate starter. Inning failings like these hint at an inability to continue pitching for comparable players in the past. Perhaps their comps were so bad that their teams could no longer endure watching them pitch batting practice, or maybe their ineffectiveness came as a result of injury that eventually kept them out of games. In any case, it seems like an eminently bad idea to depend on any pitcher who compares favorably to past players whose health or ineffectiveness prevented them from playing as much as the average “bad” pitcher.

These two pitchers are worse than each of the Twins four young pitchers in every one of these important categories. Moreover, Baker, Bonser, and Garza each have a VORP upside roughly three times higher than Ponson and four times higher than Ortiz. It would be understandable if the Twins had exactly five prospective starters and no insurance plans, and they wanted to add one more cheap veteran alternative to serve as a last resort. But Minnesota features a deep farm system, and six high-upside starters with at least some major league experience. Last year’s rash of pitcher injuries were more exception than rule; not every season will see four starters injured simultaneously. Also, if the team wants to keep costs down, it makes quite a bit more sense to go with players who could break out than those whose “breakout” would be a mere return to mediocrity.

Make no mistake, as a Twins fan I have my fingers crossed. I desperately want both pitchers to reach the unfulfilled potential of their youths, serve as dependable bargains at the back end of the rotation. Problem is, so little time has passed since last year’s debacle that the burn scars of the memories remain smoldering in my brain. The negativity is depressing, but rooting for an injury or a miserable spring training may be the only way out of making the same mistake twice. Like George Bush said, “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, uh, we won’t get fooled again.” Please, Terry, don’t get fooled again.