Positional Hijinx- Redux

Last Spring Training, I borrowed an old Bill James trick to break down the AL Central. The method consists of separating a team’s component parts and ranking them against league or divisional opponents, then awarding wins for the opponents you outrank in each category and losses for each opponent who outranks you. For instance, if a team has the second best closer in the division, that team would be 3-1 for the closer position- ahead 3 and behind 1.

I have no pretensions about the systems failings; it does not accurately reflect the quality of the team, it leaves out the possibility for synergy, and good strategy pulls no weight. Nonetheless, the rankings can engender an interesting debate about a team’s relative strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, it served a pretty useful function for last year, successfully pegging the Tigers as a winning team who would finish one game behind the Twins. The Indians winning percentage was very close to their Pythagorean results, and the Royals met their status as basement shoe-in. I overrated the White Sox, largely in the starting rotation, but I was no more guilty than the rest of the world after that staff led them to their first championship since the last time Don Zimmer needed a haircut. This year, I will try to learn from my mistakes by foreseeing Detroit’s collision with Plexiglas, giving Chicago some potential to rebound, and removing Kansas City from automatic fifth status in every category.

A couple of methodological notes: the positional assignments come from MLB.com’s team-by-team depth charts, which are usually quite reliable. In the case of undetermined spots, I will use my best judgment. Also, my performance projections center around Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecasts, but include other forecasting systems, as well. Without further ado, the tools of ignorance:

Catcher

1. Joe Mauer

2. Victor Martinez

3. Ivan Rodriguez

4. A.J. Pierzynski

5. John Buck/Jason LaRue

Last year, I received some criticism for vaulting Mauer ahead of Martinez before he had proven to be an offensive force. As Mauer has done for the Twins, he rewarded me tremendously for putting my faith in him. His most comparable players, as well as the projection systems, seem to think that he is one of the rare breed that can replicate batting averages well above .300, saving him from the pains of batting average spikes. Martinez is no slouch, outranking one of the best of all time at the position, but he loses points for spending more and more time at first base. Pudge’s defense has re-emerged as preeminent since arriving in Detroit, meaning that the team will happily abide his lack of a batting eye. Pierzynski wins the award for best Pro Wrestling cameo, which does a lot for my longstanding personal adoration, but little for these rankings and less for his team. Lastly, Kansas City better get reacquainted with that transition word.

First Base

1. Justin Morneau

2. Paul Konerko

3. Ryan Shealy

4. Casey Blake

5. Sean Casey

A strong start for the Twins, as it should be when such a disproportionate amount of the offense is tied up in the catcher and first baseman. I would not begrudge an argument for Konerko, but his age is causing his defense to slip while Morneau’s improves. Both have strong offensive games, and I will take the reigning MVP (snicker) since he has less chance of a collapse. After those two, it would be hard to tell that first base is a premium offensive position. Shealy could hit 25 bombs if he gets the playing time, and his ranking third so quickly could mislead some into anticipating a KC rebirth. Blake gave the Indians next to nothing in the outfield last year. Moving further down the defensive spectrum could help us discover what actually is next to nothing.

Second Base

1. Josh Barfield

2. Luis Castillo

3. Placido Polanco

4. Tadahito Iguchi

5. Mark Grudzielanek

PECOTA wants us to step away from the ticking time bomb that is NL to AL player movement, projecting downright wicked things from Barfield in the OBP department. Still, he’s clearly the best long term choice (not the purpose here), and his physical skills, still-developing power, and promising defense make him more appealing than the rest of the geriatric crew. Castillo could benefit from experience on the Fieldturf, especially considering the defensive strides that Bartlett and Morneau made, as well as his own improved position as 2006 went along. Polanco’s a constant injury risk, which is better than what I can say for Grudz right now, since he decided to eliminate the risk and just get injured before the season even got started.

Third Base

1. Alex Gordon

2. Brandon Inge

3. Joe Crede

4. Andy Marte

5. Nick Punto

Jerry Seinfeld used to tell a joke comparing fast-acting and long-lasting cold medicine, asking “When do I need to feel good? Now or later?” Often times, that same conundrum presents itself to teams heavy with prospects, such as last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks. This position is not one of those instances- Gordon is better for the long term, and he is substantially better right now. He will make his money with the bat, looking something like Scott Rolen for the foreseeable future, though he’s no slouch in the field, either, even if he does not rank in the top half of his own division defensively. Inge and Crede have both been postseason heroes of late, making them ripe for overrating, while Marte remains in the dog house about a year and a half after a tremendous amount of hype. To me, they fit quite closely together. Punto’s valiant efforts to chase out Batista were more impressive than Fidel’s, and had a much more desirable outcome. His 2007 prospects are grim, though, as pitchers do not usually pitch around that which cannot hurt them.

Shortstop

1. Carlos Guillen

2. Jhonny Peralta

3. Jason Bartlett

4. Juan Uribe

5. Angel Berroa

These rankings are quite straightforward. Looking back to last year, I think I was mistaken to place Bartlett ahead of Uribe, even if he backed it up with a strong 2/3 of a season. Whereas I see Punto’s 2006 as mostly fluky, I think Bartlett did the opposite, establishing a higher level of performance for himself by way of an offensive breakout. Maybe he will not continually hit .310, but I think he’s firmly ahead of Uribe, and that’s before we consider the implications of being on trial for murder during the season. Ray Lewis has nothing on him. Also, I do not know if it is a poor understanding of sunk costs, the lack of any physically able alternative, or some sort of misguided Bible belt sentiment, but Angel Berroa needs to join his twin Luis Rivas in line for utility jobs.

Left Field

1. Craig Monroe

2. David Delucci

3. Emil Brown

4. Scott Podsednik

5. Rondell White

Yech! Last year, Jason Michaels led this list, and somehow, the division may have devolved even further. Here’s Exhibit A for why one ought to take these rankings with all the salt in a bag of pretzels: is the gap between Craig Monroe and David Delucci the same as the one between Paul Konerko and Ryan Shealy? No, of course not. This difference may result in 1 win over the course of the year, generously. The one at first base could easily be 4-5 wins. In these rankings, though, they have the same value. Also, even though the Twins rank dead last in the category, expect them to get better production over the course of the season than they did last year, when White was apparently still secretly under contract with the Tigers.

Center Field

1. Grady Sizemore

2. Torii Hunter

3. Curtis Granderson

4. David Dejesus

5. Brian Anderson

Number one is easy, number two is hard. Granderson and Hunter are headed in opposite directions. Hunter stays ahead because his diminished defensive ability ranks above that to which Granderson aspires. Also, Granderson’s power potential still has to overcome some holes in his swing, whereas Hunter’s power was realized long ago and remains a strength. One could rank Dejesus higher, as I tried to do last year. Sooner or later, though, he has to have that season that justifies everyone’s high opinion of him. So far, his best OPS+ is 114, and he missed 40 games that year. Sure, Mr. Anderson moves in the field like he can see the Matrix, but at the plate, he looks more like a Newbie than Neo.

Right Field

1. Jermaine Dye

2. Michael Cuddyer

3. Magglio Ordonez

4. Reggie Sanders/Mark Teahen(?)

5. Trot Nixon

Some may say that Ordonez belongs higher on the list. I am more partial to the position that older players with one-year power spikes are subject to regression, so I discount his 2006 ever so slightly. Cuddyer legitimately broke out, and Dye had a terrific career year, so the top two spots belong to legit players, if not huge name superstars. Sanders and Nixon round out the list, and the two may be interchangeable. I would try to find more reasons to distinguish between the two, but really, why?

Designated Hitter

1. Travis Hafner

2. Jim Thome

3. Gary Sheffield

4. Mike Sweeney

5. Jason Kubel

Hafner’s a true stud, one of the best hitters in the game looking like Albert Belle from a decade ago. Thome’s a year older, a year wiser, and a year closer to his back finally giving out for good. The Tigers may have thought more highly of their move to acquire Sheffield than sitting in the middle of the division, but he’s worth more than that considering what he replaces in Detroit. I wanted to rank Jason Kubel ahead of Sweeney because I believe he will come around with a year of building strength in his reconstructed knee, but Sweeney’s biggest drawback is his own health, and it’s hard to rank Kubel ahead of anyone based on the advantages gleaned from his durability.

Bench

1. White Sox

2. Indians

3. Twins

4. Tigers

5. Royals

These rankings are a little more difficult and a lot more subjective. There is no way to approach them without considering how the manager uses his bench, and that’s where Chicago gets most of the advantage. Ozzie knows how to milk value out of guys like Erstad and Mackowiak. Adding a legitimate backup catcher in Toby Hall should only make the bench more effective, preventing Pierzynski’s wear down. The Indians may have the best bench on paper, with Michaels and Choo serving as fantastic OF platoon partners, Garko a strong bat of the bench, and Inglett as a fine infield reserve. The Twins get points for having one of the game’s best backup catchers in Mike Redmond, and adding Jeff Cirillo to caddy for Punto didn’t hurt, either. The Tigers barely relied on their bench last year, and that seemed like Leyland’s prerogative rather than a reflection of its quality, even if the quality was somewhat lacking. Finally, the Royals have made pretty good progress in a year, but depth is one of the last things down the pipeline.

#1 Starter

1. Johan Santana

2. C.C. Sabathia

3. Jose Contreras

4. Gil Meche

5. Kenny Rogers

The Tigers and White Sox will pick up points later in the pitching categories with superior depth. The top of the line has to go to the Twins, though, and Sabathia’s mini-breakout makes him an easy pick for number two over an old and regressing Contreras. The Royals have caught a lot of hell for the Gil Meche signing, so maybe it will come as a bit of good news that he is probably not going to be the worst number one starter in the division. That is, unless Kenny Rogers finds a way to get more of that mysterious substance from the World Series. My guess? It wasn’t pine tar at all, but some residue from some Dianobol from the previous half inning.

#2 Starter

1. Jeremy Bonderman

2. Mark Buehrle

3. Jake Westbrook

4. Boof Bonser

5. Odalis Perez

Bonderman would rank second among my group of aces- a high compliment, but one I am confident he will earn this season. Buehrle’s greatest redeeming grace is that he is in a walk year and could pitch with more of a vengeance. Last year was a disappointment for Westbrook, and he will need more defensive support to keep his batting average on balls in play down since his style will not bring about many easy outs. This group is a solid one up and down, so even though I expect big things from Bonser, number four is as high as he will go.

#3 Starter

1. Justin Verlander

2. Jon Garland

3. Cliff Lee

4. Ramon Ortiz

5. Luke Hudson

A less inspiring group than the one at number 2. Verlander’s star shines brightly enough to carry the torch. The rest of the list screams of unfulfilled potential, though, as Garland and Lee share plenty of platitudes, and two good seasons. Ramon Ortiz is even more depressing, and the best thing the media can find to write about him is that three years of mourning his father might finally be enough to return his focus to baseball.

#4 Starter

1. Javy Vazquez

2. Paul Byrd

3. Nate Robertson

4. Scott Elarton

5. Carlos Silva

If Ozzie would stop playing chicken with Vazquez by pushing him beyond his 6 inning comfort zone, the White Sox would be better for it. He is certainly the most talented of these five pitchers, even if he’s not built in the endurance mold that the Sox championship pitchers came from. Byrd and Robertson could switch places without much objection, and I moved Elarton up from MLB’s depth chart, because he seemed like the last legitimate starter on the list.

#5 Starter

1. Jeremy Sowers

2. Matt Garza

3. Mike Maroth

4. Gavin Floyd

5. Zack Greinke

Sowers, like Westbrook, induces more than his share of groundballs and will rely on improvements by Peralta to stay at a high level. Matt Garza is one of three or four young starters who will probably see some time for the Twins, a fact that mitigates the disastrous impact of having both Silva and Ortiz on the staff if one of them falters badly enough for Ron Gardenhire to bat an eyelash. The last two spots should really receive a grade of “Incomplete,” as Floyd may or may not start, and remains an unknown commodity since moving into Don Cooper’s tutelage. Greinke, also, is difficult to project since taking a mental health year is not a common practice for young star pitchers.

Closer

1. Joe Nathan

2. Bobby Jenks

3. Ocatvio Dotel

4. Joe Borowski

5. Todd Jones

Nathan is probably the best in the game now that Mariano’s started to finally age every so slightly. Jenks is no slouch, either, and has a strong setup crew. Dotel ranks this highly by default- he can strike out batters and the others cannot. Is Joe Borowski the new Bob Wickman, or is Bob Wickman the old Joe Borowski? I can’t remember. Finally, the best thing Todd Jones could do for the Tigers this year is to injure himself quickly. Forget prohibitions, there should be incentive clauses in this guy’s contract to do all of the snowboarding, motorcycle riding, and venison carrying he can do.

Bullpen at Large

1. Twins

2. White Sox

3. Tigers

4. Indians

5. Royals

The Twins are the winners and still the heavyweight champions of the bullpen wars. Rick Anderson is slipping something in their Gatorade to make guys like Reyes perform at a high level. With Rincon, Crain, and Neshek joining him to make a situationally dominant pen with clearly defined roles, there’s not a lot of room for them to be beaten. Not that the Sox aren’t trying, adding MacDougal late last season and Masset early in the off-season to help them miss as many bats as possible. The Tigers return a solid core minus Jamie Walker. You could say that Zumaya by himself should top this list, but the middle innings are less certain, and I heard that Guitar Hero II is even better than the first one. The Indians tried last year to build a pen out of broken down veteran spare parts and failed, so this year’s experiment gets to prove itself before getting any extra credit. Lastly, the Royals have collected lots of live arms and interesting stories, now they will have to try to win some games for a change.

Final Standings:

Cleveland 42-26

Chicago 39-29

Minnesota 38-30

Detroit 36-32

Kansas City 15-53

What Did We Learn?

The overall profile looks strikingly similar to the one I completed last year. Many of the faces have stayed the same, and my impressions are probably slower to change than their actual abilities, meaning young players have to prove that their breakouts were not flukes, and older players’ skills may diminish faster than I notice. Still, the ordering looks fairly reasonable, with a few caveats that I will explain team by team.

Cleveland- So the Indians have the best positional average, does that mean I am ready to anoint them division champs? Yes and no. I remain ambivalent about the Indians, because they have looked better on paper than on the field for three years now, and seem to be doing the same things that didn’t work last year- platoon players at power positions and pick relievers off of the scrap heap. Those strategies work in Strat-o-matic leagues, and it seems like they should work in the big leagues too, but they just haven’t worked in Cleveland yet. In fact, they have failed so badly that the Indians have underperformed their own run differential badly. Call it unexplained variance or call it luck; there is some disturbing thread here that has to end this year, or else it will become a disturbing trend.

Chicago- The White Sox earned a lot of their points on the strength of the middle of their rotation and the bullpen. Kenny Williams seems to have identified these areas as ones where he thinks he can get the most value. Ozzie knows how to use these assets to his advantage, so they should be able to press them for quite a few wins. Sure, the team is getting older, but I am not throwing in the towel yet, because the offense will be able to put up runs in that stadium, and the bullpen is looking better and better all of the time.

Minnesota- They look to be within striking distance in these standings, and the availability of two starters who are quite clearly better than their 3 or 4 starter would seem to make them upwardly mobile. On the other hand, the Twins rank dead last in four categories, and fourth in two others. They are the sort of stars and scrubs roster that could go bang at any given moment. Imagine if Joe Mauer or Johan Santana went down for the season in May. I know the front office has shown a great deal of ingenuity, but things have to go exactly right for this team to contend, and that does not seem like the smartest bet.

Detroit- The Tigers are exactly the type of team that this system would tend to undervalue. Their team defense does not show up at all, even though that collective skills have proven itself invaluable to the last two AL Champs. Jim Leyland’s managerial skill, especially the motivational aspects, do not show up in the least, even though it would be hard to argue that he has no effect on his players. The Tigers also place a lot of very good players further down on some tougher lists: Pudge Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, and the bullpen all rank third, but could all be ranked higher in another division. That is to say, it is not always the position of the ranking; sometimes the relative placement within those rankings matters as well. A small adjustment for these standings would put them ahead of Minnesota and Chicago, and I tend to believe that is where they will end up.

Kansas City- Even if the Royals remain far behind the rest of the division, they are slowly making headway. Players like Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen have promise, something that Allard Baird’s teams did not have. Continued investment in player development, and the commitment to trying in the free agent market- as evidenced by the Meche deal- could lead to better days ahead. It could also lead to many more last place finishes, especially in a tough division, but that seed of hope is something that was notably absent the past few years.

Final Projected Standings

Cleveland- 91-71

Detroit- 89-73

Minnesota- 87-75

Chicago- 85-77

Kansas City- 68-94