Algonquin for, “The Good Land”

With a 25-13 record and the internet’s recent proliferation of “Are they for real?” columns, it is fair to say that the Brewers are better than most people expected. Before the season, they were a trendy pick in the NL Central, more because the division looked like a disaster than because they looked like a threat to win 90 games. After returning a losing roster plus Jeff Suppan, the Brewers looked like they may be plagued by the same old problems that kept them on the cusp of contention for the last two seasons. Instead, they have broken out forcefully, staking themselves to a 6.5 game lead over the second place Astros in the division and making themselves prohibitive favorites to make the postseason. I am certainly willing to concede that the team has put itself in a better position than I expected at this point in the season. However, I thin the more interesting questions are the ones regarding what has made them so successful, and what we can expect from the team the rest of the year.

Even after dropping two in a row, the Brewers sport a remarkable .658 winning percentage nearly a quarter of the way through the season. As Tom Verducci pointed out in his recent column on the Brewers, teams with that sort of start tend to make the playoffs, not only because they put themselves in a great position, but also because it is difficult to crash that far back to Earth. In order to end up a .500 team, the Brewers would have to finish 56-68- a .451 winning percentage befitting a 73-89 team over a full season. It is fair to say that the Brewers have amply demonstrated that they are better than a 73 win team. Even if they finish the year as the .512 (83 win) team I projected them to be before the season, they would finish the season with 89 wins, a strong number in a division that has been less than gangbusters thus far.

As if the record did not speak for itself, the Brewers’ individual production has been a good deal rosier than anticipated so far. Whether those results come from a genuine improvement or a couple of lucky months requires a deeper look at the changes in statistics. The most profound change has been J.J. Hardy, a toolsy shortstop who has never put it together at the plate or in the stamina department, but who has hit like A-Rod in 2007, putting up a .327/.376/.628 line with 23 extra base hits and a homerun every 14 plate appearances. Considering that PECOTA forecast a total of 12 homeruns in 446 PAs, and a .256/.318/.403 line, his actual production seems extremely fortunate. In fact, his 90^th percentile PECOTA forecast had him at a much more modest .295/.359/.486 line, which would be fairly easily reached after the start he has already put up. Given that many scouts have raved about Hardy for years only to see him succumb to yet another injury, and the fact that he is an athletic, still improving 24 year old, and it is not surprising that he has made strides. A 40-homer pace though? Probably less likely. More than anyone else on the roster, Hardy stands to see a pretty noticeable regression to the mean over the next several months, albeit one that will still leave him with an impressive final batting line.

A couple of other young contributors to the Brewers may have made progress toward becoming stars, as well. Rickie Weeks, for instance, has always had pop- a .155 ISO in his rookie year- but lacked the plate discipline to give wheels to his so-so contact skills. This year, he has yet to remedy the contact issues, hitting only .244 to this point, but by increasing his walk rate from 7.3% to 12.7% of his plate appearances while maintaining his ability to take one for the team (11 in 2005, 19 in 2006, and 3 so far this year), he has raised his OBP to a still-respectable .352. An OPS over 800 for a speedy second baseman is outstanding unto itself, and it will only continue to rise as his batting average exits the doldrums.

As for the rest of the offense, Prince Fielder has developed into an elite offensive force even more quickly than most expected, giving the lineup a masher in the middle. Last year’s revelation, Bill Hall, has kept his bat in the transition to the outfield, hitting .281/.351/.474. Kevin Mench has been unimpressive, but with Corey Hart back from injury and Geoff Jenkins partying like it’s 1999, the outfield has enough firepower to relegate him to bench work. Only third base has caused the occasional tear in Milwaukee fans’ beers, as Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino have left much to be desired. Luckily, the organization has one of baseball’s top prospects stashed away at that exact position in Nashville, with Ryan Braun walloping .358/.426/.716 with an encouraging 2 errors in 28 games. Braun may struggle with his discipline at first, readjusting to pitchers who can actually challenge him, but his future is bright, and his presence will temper some of the regression from the other hot hitting infielders.

Between Suppan, Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, David Bush, and Claudio Vargas, the Brewers have had the sort of deep and consistent rotation that has helped teams like Detroit and Chicago make giant leaps forward in recent years. Vargas has been a surprise, but the other four have lived up to their potential as solid, consistent starters who will eat up innings while keeping their team in the game. Sheets has the ability to be something much more, though his depressed strikeout rate- down almost 100% from last year to 4.84 per nine- shows why he has been only average so far. The rest of the rotation has held it together by keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 99 homeruns so far, third best in the majors in a park that does not particularly favor the pitchers. Additionally, the starters have done their best to help out a merely average defense by limiting base runners; nobody has walked more than 3.5 per nine, and Sheets, Suppan, and Bush are all below 2.05.

My primary concerns about the Brewers coming into the year were two of the team’s problems from last year that seemed unresolved. First, the bullpen, constructed out of sabermetric glue and popsicle sticks, had lots of live arms that could not get anyone out. So far, Francisco Cordero, Carlos Villanueva, Brian Shouse, and Derrick Turnbow have all walked too many batters, but have compensated by either striking out loads (Cordero- 12.42, Tunbow- 12.94), or eliminating homeruns from the equation altogether. My second concern was the team’s defense, which struggled mightily last year, particularly in the infield. The return of J.J. Hardy has stabilized the infield to an extent, and giving third base to a couple of guys who can field without hitting has helped enough to bring them to the middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency. Overall, the Brewers rank 16^th in the majors at turning batted balls into outs, a number which looks unremarkable, but means quite a bit considering the team’s defensive deficiencies in recent years. The Brewers ranking in the middle of the pack here is akin to the White Sox running away with the category two years ago; some regression should be expected.

Lastly, the Brewers have an interesting situation in their own division. Six and a half games on the Astros is a good number now that Roger Clemens has committed himself elsewhere. The more concerning foe is not the defending World Champions, it is the underachieving Chicago Cubs, who have outscored their opponents by 25 runs despite a below-.500 record. In fact, the Cubs and Reds are the two biggest underachieves in baseball, according to third order wins, and adjusting the teams’ records for their true performance makes the division race look much closer. After that adjustment, the Cubs pull dead even with the Brewers atop the division and the Reds lurk only 2.5 games back. Of course, the Brewers deserve recognition for being the one team in that group who is actually winning games, and the spot atop the others in the division gives them that prize. This exercise does more to tell where they teams are headed than where they have been. If the Brewers continue to be the 22 win team that third order wins peg them to be, they would win 94 games and probably take the division easily. If Hardy and company regress, or if injuries strike like they did last year, the Brewers could end up around 90 victories. For the Cubs to match that total from their 17-19 present, they would have to play .589 ball, ambitious even considering their .583 current third order pace. In that regard, it is not hard to see the Brewers as division champs and postseason participants for the first time since 1982. As far as I am concerned, that is enough of a qualification to make them “for real.”