Check Swings
“Holiday” Edition

As you can see by the dates of my recent posts, I have taken something of a sabbatical coinciding with the month’s religious holidays (I don’t know if it is possible to remove the religious connotation from a word derived from Sabbath. Whatever). The baseball news of the last week has been equal parts bland and depressing, so it may be better for myself having not written. That hasn’t stopped the ideas from creeping up there in the ole noggin, though, so I decided to jot down some reactions before we all start tearing through gift wrap.

The first Twins move was the signing of Tony Batista, as much of a travesty as you all think. My first assumption was that bringing a 33 year old back from Japan (after a mediocre year there) would not cost the team any more than a Non-Roster Invitation to Florida in late February. But Batista will crowd someone off of the 40-man roster and cost the team a million dollars more than some minor league alternative. They would absolutely be better off with last year’s NRI, Eric Munson, as he doesn’t have the massive drawbacks that Batista does. Some very smart analysts say that it is better to talk about what a player can do than what he can’t, so let’s think about Batista’s strengths. A high percentage of his hits are for extra bases, and he has hit more than 25 HRs in a season five separate times. Problem is, he has walked more than 35 times exactly once, and doesn’t hit enough singles to buoy his OBP or even SLG. His defense is above average (a career 106 Rate2, or 6 runs every 100 games). But last year’s PECOTA projected him to put up a 2.8 VORP in 2006, not exactly the solution we all had in mind when visions of Bill Mueller and Hank Blalock danced in our heads. There is a slim chance that Terry Tiffee will be worse than Batista in 2006, and that could not offset the marginal payroll and opportunity cost. If the Twins don’t want to seriously contend in 2006, why waste money on dredge like Batista and his career .298 OBP?

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Then the Twins picked up Rondell White, who has had some injury troubles through his career. By “some injury troubles” I mean that he played 151 games in 1997 and has not reached 140 since. White was quoted in the Strib as saying that he had freak injuries while fielding that will go away if he plays full time as a DH, but I’m overwhelmingly pessimistic about that projection. Still, White is something like an average outfielder/DH at this point in his career, possibly even a good value at the $3.5-4 million he will end up costing per year. But once again, White has no chance to make the difference between a contender and an also-ran, a position the Twins seem all-to-willing to accept. The White Sox get Javy Vazquez, at least a six win player, and the only answer the Twins can find is a retread third baseman who nobody wanted for two straight years and the third or fourth best free agent DH. If Radke is serious about retiring after the year, Ryan should have pulled out the stops and tried to catch lightning in a bottle this season. A short-term commitment like Nomar Garciaparra is precisely the type of high risk, high reward possibility that successful teams find to surround young studs like Santana and Mauer. Color me disappointed.

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The big news is not about the Twins; it’s about the Yankees and Red Sox. Peter Gammons, who I see as the preeminent Red Sox insider, said that the front office conglomerate would match any offer the Yankees would make. At the same time, Damon’s agent said he refused to talk about an offer of anything less than five years. So after a week of negotiations between Scott Boras and the Sox front office, Damon comes out of nowhere to recant on his May pledge not to play for the Bombers and signed a four year deal for a little more money than Boston had already offered. Very simply and obviously, Damon chose to go to New York; Boston did not force him out. The popular opinion is that Damon will earn his $13 million this year and next year and drop off from there, perhaps becoming a drag by the end of his contract. I’m not even that hopeful for Damon, as I think Fenway had an inordinately positive effect on the line-drive hitting speedster. He struggled in a much larger park in Oakland, hitting .256/.324/.363 in his only season there. Certainly, he has become a better hitter since then, but do not underestimate the effect that Fenway has had on him. Instead of .300/.370/.450 like he hit in Boston, it is not unreasonable to think that he will be more like .275/.340/.400 in New York. It’s also funny that the Sox signed John Flaherty the day after Damon’s deal was finalized. I call it retaliation.

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Maybe I’m wrong about this one, but I think Matt Lawton’s contract with the Mariners was probably contingent on his public apology for steroid use. It seems like an odd coincidence that he would go four months after his suspension without coming forward, then willingly apologizing the day before he signs with Seattle. And I don’t blame the M’s front office, as it would be much easier to justify signing Lawton- who could still be a valuable source of OBP- if he had owned up to his suspension. Most people don’t like hearing that the test was rigged or that the player took some mysterious supplement that lit up the test. Now that Lawton has come “clean,” he can serve his suspension and the local press can spin him as a reclamation project. Good deal all around. I have always liked Matt Lawton, and I hope he rebounds back to relevance.

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Speaking of relevance and going to the opposite end of the spectrum, the Royals added Joe Mays and Reggie Sanders to go along with Elmer Dessens, Doug Mientkiewicz, Paul Bako, Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Redman, Bobby Madritsch and Scott Elarton. As bad as their 106 losses were last year, spending a bunch of money on nine (9!) free agents who can hardly help them at all is not much of a solution. Maybe they’ll chop their losses down to double digits, but I don’t see where any of this gets them in the long term. They obviously will not contend this year or next year. These acquisitions will not only be worthless by the time they could potentially contend, they will cost money and draft picks while standing in the way of developing other players. It also gives Allan Baird an excuse not to trade Mike Sweeney for a few more months. Frustrated as I am with the direction of the Twins of late, I have to say that I am very relieved that I am not a Royals fan.

Thanks Steve

I will not portend to be an expert on trades and free agent signings. I read a lot about baseball and I think I have probably picked up a few analytic tools that give me a better understanding of which players are useful and which are not. Still, if I prescribe a solution to every team’s roster issues, I will frequently be wrong. Look at my free agent predictions, for example; I did well to predict that Konerko would stay with Chicago for 5/$60 mil (dead on) and that Burnett would go to Baltimore or Toronto for 4/$52 mil (off by a year), but missed horribly by guessing B.J. Ryan would sign for 4/$24 mil (I guess that’s the difference between the normative and the actual world). Now that I have established that I am not qualified to speak on behalf of every team’s fans, I will spend the rest of my column criticizing Steve Phillips for failing miserably at the same task.

Phillips seems like a decent human being; I even enjoy some of his commentary, as the team with Steve Stone and Rod Thorne provides a much more lighthearted perspective than the self-righteous blowhards on FOX. As a GM, he even made the kinds of smart little moves that compound into enough wins to make the postseason. He traded overpriced relievers for useful, young and cheap utility players (Orosco for McEwing, Pulsipher for Lenny Harris) and took chances on some of the right players (Rickey Henderson, Tsuyoshi Shinjo). It was a mixed bag, but he was at least a decent GM. Reading his ESPN.com columns, though, it would be hard to tell that he ever had any idea what makes a team competitive. Take his recent column on players who fill teams’ remaining holes. Here are some highlights:

“The answer [for Mariners' SP] is the AL's ERA leader in 2005, Kevin Millwood. The Mariners are aggressively pursuing him and reportedly have made an offer to him. They may have to overpay to get him to go West because his preference is to stay closer to his Georgia home. Millwood has led a staff and played on winning teams, which is the type of pedigree the Mariners need to add.”

To what question is “Millwood” Seattle’s answer? Who will get Seattle to 75 wins? The Mariners are, in many ways, as directionless as Phillips, with a roster full of players under 26 and over 36. With some developmental breaks and a reversal of injury fortunes, the M’s could contend in ’08 or so, when Millwood will be 34. If they “have to overpay” for Millwood, he is going to be in steep decline by the time they are in contention, not to mention a financial burden when they could use the flexibility to fill in more pressing holes. Signing Millwood would be the sort of short-term non-solution that keeps teams like Pittsburgh questing for mediocrity year after year.

“Jarrod Washburn's road numbers were very good last year, and he made five starts against the Rangers, going 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA.”

Evaluating a player based on head-to-head competition is the kind of mistake I imagine teams making around the turn of the last century, when the only time a manager saw other players was in that setting. Today, GMs have the luxury of looking at intricate statistics as well as other teams’ games. Jon Daniels has the luxury of knowing that Washburn is on the wrong side of 30, had ERAs around 4.50 in 2003-2004, and struck out only 94 batters in 177.3 innings last season. He’s not as durable as he once was, and he doesn’t do any one thing particularly well (besides “handedness”). Maybe Phillips is implying that Washburn has some special ability to pitch in hitter friendly Arlington? That’s even more spurious, as Washburn’s 10 starts over the last four yeas in that venue have yielded a 7.23 ERA.

“[The Twins] need a solid veteran who can help lead this young team in what has become a very challenging division. The answer is Joe Randa.

Randa's preference is to play as close to his home in Kansas City as possible. He handles just about everything he gets to defensively, and he has some pop in his bat.”

This is another example of filling a hole for the sake of filling a hole. Joe Randa isn’t terrible, and he is probably even a little better than Terry Tiffee, the Twins next best alternative at third (not Tony Batista. Please, not Tony Batista, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Phillips liked that pickup). The “pop in his bat” has been good for a career .427 SLG, strikingly close to Mike Cuddyer’s .422 SLG last year, which everyone deemed wholly inadequate. Cuddyer is young enough to improve; Randa is 35. I’m not saying the Twins should settle for 86-87 wins with what is currently on the table. I’m saying that the Twins shouldn’t settle for paying Joe Randa an extra couple of million dollars when the return is something the neighborhood of one marginal win.

“Cleveland Indians Need: Right-handed power hitterThey tried with Juan Gonzalez in 2005, but that didn't work. The Tribe needs a big right-handed power bat to protect Travis Hafner in the lineup and to spell Ben Broussard against tough lefties. Fortunately, the hitter can be an outfielder exclusively because Casey Blake can move to 1B to make room for him. Ideally, the more versatile the player is the better, because the Indians do have a number of movable pieces depending upon the matchups.

Preston Wilson could help the Indians. Even though he struggled after his midyear trade to the Nationals, Wilson still hit 25 homers and drove in 90 runs in '05. There doesn't seem to be much action on him now, so he will probably come at a good bargain. He is also a year removed from knee surgery. He can play all three outfield positions, and he is a definite threat to go deep.”

Clearly he is not thinking along the lines of what could plausibly happen, since Preston Wilson is exactly the sort of player that Mark Shapiro would not consider. Cleveland has done well to get lots of cheap OBP, which is part of the reason they have sacrificed the right handed power hitter to present. Signing Preston Wilson is wishcasting for his age 25 and 26 seasons- he is seven years removed from slugging over .500 or hitting 30 HRs outside of Coors Field. And last I checked, Grady Sizemore was a pretty decent CF, making it pretty wasteful to pay Wilson for his ability to do the same.

Most importantly, the deal is reactionary, uncreative and overly simplistic. He sees a position without a proven player and plugs in the next free agent to play that position who has played in an All Star game, hit .300 or 30 HRs or accomplished some other feat, no matter how long ago it may have been. Florida’s Alex Gonzalez to the Red Sox? Well, I guess they do not have a proven star at SS, but Gonzalez’s glove can’t outweigh his miserable bat. Moreover, signing him hamstrings the Sox 40-man roster and overall flexibility. They have enough assets and money to try Mark Loretta, Andy Marte and Dustin Pedroia at short and patch it over at the deadline if it doesn’t work out.

Phillips’ ideas will not kill teams, for the most part, and he seems to understand that short-term deals are better than long-term ones. But he has several methodological flaws. Gonzalez is the youngest player on his list, and he’ll be 29 on opening day, and the average age of his solutions is 33.3 years. He goes for players who have already “proven” themselves rather than those who might have their best years ahead of them. He assumes that a small upgrade is necessarily better, even if it just means a couple more wins next year at the cost of flexibility or development in the long term. On the whole, he does not have a plan, which would be costly for someone managing 40 roster spots and a whole minor league system.

A Season for Giving

We witnessed more trades and big signings in the last week than we probably will for any other week for the rest of the winter. I’m going to dive right in with my first impressions of each deal.

-White Sox get Javier Vazquez, Diamondbacks get Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino, Chris Young
My initial reaction when I saw this headline on ESPN was an open mouth, wide-eyes and a slowly shaking head. I remember a couple of years ago when Kenny Williams would be in on every trade discussion, but only had disappointing players to offer in return. He would then pawn off the same assets he wanted to spend on Ken Griffey on Carl Everett or a completely spent Roberto Alomar. Ever since he broke the prospect bank for Freddy Garcia (and those prospects have been duds so far anyway), things have started looking up. Not only do other GMs appear to take him more seriously, but the same players who used to look like failures can now distract other teams with their shiny World Series rings. In the Thome trade, Aaron Rowand was seen as a real asset. Here, El Duque, the team’s one rotational weakness garnered a borderline ace, albeit an ace with leverage on his old team. Even if Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle come back in the direction of league average next season, the difference between Vazquez and Hernandez should offset it. Vazqueuz will continue to give up lots of HRs (68 in the last 2 years), but the Cell isn’t any worse than the BOB in that respect, and his strong K and BB rates should help offset the damage. The purpose of the trade was to get Vazquez closer to his family in Puerto Rico, and it chopped about 950 miles off of the trip, but he’s still more than 2000 miles away, according to this nifty website.

-Blue Jays get Lyle Overbay; Brewers get David Bush, Gabe Gross, PTBNL
I talked about the value of Overbay’s glove to the team’s new groundball specialist on Monday, but didn’t assess what the Brewers got back. Doug Melvin has been remarkably successful at making trades, with success stories like Overbay and Capuano for Richie Sexson, and Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik. Certainly, this one could look really good for him too, as Bush could pitch a lot of average innings, and Gross the performance record (.297/.380/.438 at AAA) to project to an above average major league OF. In addition to this trade and the Sexson trade, Melvin also acquired Jose Capellan for Dan Kolb last winter, indicating a proclivity for almost-Major League ready talent.

-Cardinals get Larry Bigbie, Aaron Miles; Rockies get Ray King
Bigbie and Miles both have nasty platoon splits and face the difficulty of a post-Coors offensive environment. Still, they’re cheap positional talent who can start for many teams, and all the Rockies got back was a reliever with a 23/16 K/BB ratio last year. King is fine, as long as you are really fond of LaRussian situational lefties, pining for those blissful years of Rick Honeycutt throwing 35 innings in 50 appearances. But St. Louis got over its Mark Grudzielanek headache before it even set in and got a viable replacement for Reggie Sanders in the process.

-Cubs get Juan Pierre; Marlins get Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto
Of all of the Marlins trades, this one might have the biggest return on the smallest investment. With the losses of Beckett and Burnett, Mitre might slot into the rotation right next to Scuffy Moehler. Pinto has decent minor leagues stats, but he is too far off to project with any certainty. Nolasco was exceptional last year at AA, going 14-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 161 IP. He gave up 13 HR and 46 BBs against 173 Ks. It might have been easier for Florida fans if they had received a ball of yarn and some thumb-tacks back in these trades, just to be sure they would not be tempted by another decent Marlins squad in a few years. Pierre, for all of his positive press, had to justify his existence to Cubs fans at his introduction by saying that his contributions do not show up in the box score, but you have to be there to see them. “I guess you had to be there,” is never the optimal ending to a story, and it is rhetorically foreboding for Pierre to start from that point.

-Reds get Tony Womack; Yankees get two C prospects
I include this trade to demonstrate that the Reds still do not have a plan. Even with the swap of Sean Casey for a useful pitcher, they are far away from contending, and wasting over a million bucks on the completely futile Womack does not fix that problem. If they really needed a speedy middle infielder, I’m pretty certain there are a dozen of them on the waiver wire for 1/3 the price of Womack. The only thing standing between Womack and the title of “Worst 2005 Major Leaguer” was the Nationals’ lack of a less putrid alternative to Christian Guzman.

-Angels get J.C. Romero; Twins get Alexi Casilla
This is another trade that I do not believe to be particularly important. Romero could be useful to the Angels in the right situation, such as a postseason series against a team with lots of lefty power. But that scenario requires them to compete, which is no longer a certainty, with a downgraded rotation (losing Washburn and Byrd) and an aging supporting cast surrounding Vlad Guerrero. The AL West will be tough enough with the A’s and Rangers both on the rise, but they also face stiffer Wild Card competition from the eventual loser of the Chicago/Cleveland and New York/Boston races, and possibly from Minnesota and Toronto as well. I don’t have anything to say about Casilla except that he seems fast, that I’m relieved at his decent walk rate, and I’m glad that the Twins are piling up middle infield prospects- a position of relative shallowness in recent years.

-Dodgers get Andre Ethier; A’s get Milton Bradley, Antonio Perez
I’ve talked about how the A’s have positional certainty in the past, and this trade shores up about the only position at which they do not have a young stud signed to a reasonable contract. The assumption is that Bradley will not cause a stir by calling Mark Kotsay a Klansman or slapping Ken Macha’s wife, but the talent is definitely there. Bradley has also been an injury risk in recent years, but it looks to me like Beane is taking a calculated risk and going for it all this year. Look for him to shop Zito, but trading him away for prospects after giving up one of the team’s best minor league OFs (.319/.385/.497 last year at AA and monster numbers in the AFL) does not seem like the first step in a rebuilding process. Plus, if Zito walks, the draft picks he will return as a top FA should not be far off of the package they could get by trading him and losing his 2006 performance.

-Nationals get Alfonso Soriano; Rangers get Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge, Armando Galarraga
One of my friends told me that he likes this trade for the Nats on the basis of coolness and potential for jersey sales, but I’m afraid the upside might stop there. Wilkerson and Soriano have nearly opposite skill sets: Soriano is a free swinging bopper with surprising speed and zero plate discipline, while Wilkerson draws lots and lots of walks, plays sound defense with versatility and makes few mistakes. There values are nearly equal on the field, Soriano’s horrid defense and inability to draw walks offset his more noticeable abilities, and Wilkerson’s workmanlike persona undersells his subtle contributions. All other things equal, I’d lean slightly towards Soriano for next season in terms of an overall contribution. All other things are not equal, though, as the Nats gave up two more players and will take on about $10 million to pay for Soriano. And that doesn’t even begin to address the positional nightmare Bowden will face if Soriano continues to refuse a move to the OF. I assumed they had already worked out some sort of agreement to get him to play LF before they made the trade, but apparently, nobody told the Fonz, and now Bowden is sending out feelers for Jose Vidro, which was never part of the plan. Even if it all works out, that still leaves the question of whether Soriano’s power will translate from Arlington to RFK. Altogether, a poorly thought out trade by the Nationals.

My favorite trades of the bunch are Texas getting Wilkerson, et al. and the Cardinals getting useful parts in return for Ray King.

Too Much Money-ball

Say what you will about parity and competitive balance, but the balance of power in the American League still rests in Boston and New York. Two of the last three pennants, a World Championship and six playoff appearances make a pretty good case for their dominance. Even if the media has yet to convince you that the Sox and Yankees are the foci around which the baseball world revolves, you have to admit that the AL East does not exhibit the kind of revolving door at the top that many other divisions have. J.P. Riccardi seems determined to reverse that trend in Toronto, though, paying top dollar for a couple of the most highly regarded free agents on the market. He has been vociferously criticized in recent weeks for spending over $100 million on two pitchers with track records as long as Jerry Falwell’s rap sheet. The question remains, even if the acquisitions pay off, will it get the Blue Jays over the hump in the AL East?

To start with, Riccardi definitely started by looking at last year’s standings and projecting forward to 2006. With New York and Boston tied atop the division, Toronto finished third yet again, this time at 80-82, 15 games behind the leaders. Accounting for a few games lost to regression, and making the bold assumption that the big market teams’ new pickups do not make a positive difference, Toronto would have to win at least 10 more games to compete next year. The only team with at least 75 wins in 2004 to make that kind of improvement in 2005 was the White Sox, and their breakthrough of 16 games would get Toronto to New York and Boston’s 2005 level. But Riccardi probably was not looking just at raw standings, but at the performance behind those wins and losses. Boston and New York both finished above their Pythagorean win prediction, based on runs scored and runs allowed. Adjusting for outside factors, Boston should have won 91, New York 90 and Toronto 89, making the Blue Jays one of the most unlucky teams in 2005 and most likely to rebound in 2006. Factor in the widely-held belief that the bullpen can disproportionately skew the actual wins and losses due to high leverage situations, and it isn’t surprising that about half of Riccardi’s cache went to (maybe) the best closer on the market.

Getting back last year’s unlucky losses will not be enough, though, since they have to make up two games to catch Boston, who had some bad breaks of their own in 2005. Say, modestly, that the Sox win as many games next year as they did this year, and the Jays have to win six more games than they should have won last year. Their three acquisitions so far, Burnett, Ryan and Overbay, will probably be joined by at least one more new bat (unless they choose to keep Overbay, Hillenbrand, Koskie and Hinske to share two positions). For now, let’s see if there is any way for these three to get six more wins over what they got out of the same positions last year.

Burnett, the biggest name of the group, has a 4.16 career Runs Average, posting a 4.18 RA last year, about 8% better than league average. Translating that number to the AL, Burnett projects to a 4.33 RA for Toronto without adjusting for the move out of a very pitcher friendly park. If Burnett replaces David Bush’s 4.82 RA (since Bush was sent to Milwaukee for Overbay), he would save about 7.5 runs in the same number of innings pitched. Given more innings, he could be worth one full win in the rotation. For a team that has not paid a premium for marginal wins over the last several years, paying more than $10 million this year for an absolute maximum of two wins seems steep.

Ryan is an easier comparison, coming from the same division and probably joining a similar bullpen while replacing Miguel Batista. B.J. Ryan was worth 3.375 Expected Wins Over Replacement last season in Baltimore, but Batista is an accomplished major leaguer, easily above replacement level. Well, not that easily, as Batista managed only a .862 WXRL, right below the maligned Yhency Brazoban and behind three of the Jays other relievers. Simply substituting Ryan gains the Jays 2.513 wins. Call it 2.5, and the Jays are again paying an unprecedented premium for a couple of wins.

Finally, Overbay is a more difficult case, since it is not yet clear whose at bats he will be taking. Presumably, his ABs would trade off with either Hinkse’s or Hillenbrand’s since Koskie doesn’t play first base. Overbay’s 33.3 VORP for Milwaukee last year is almost identical to Hillenbrand’s 32.5, which led Toronto’s meager offensive output. Compared to Hinske’s 17.1, he could be worth about 1.5 wins offensively. Overbay is known as a solid defender, a reputation which squares with the numbers, as his 110 rate2 last year is the same as his career number. Over a full season, his glove could be worth 10-12 runs over Hillenbrand’s and 20 runs over Hinske’s, which looks especially valuable after spending $50 million on a groundball starter. All told, it would not be impossible for Overbay to be the most marginally valuable of the three, providing somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.5 wins.

Taken optimistically, Riccardi’s moves do not seem quite as inexplicable. The most important adjustment is based on the run differentials from last year, which paint a much better picture of the future than their actual record. When taken individually, each acquisition could be worth a win or two, even up to a combined seven or eight wins if everything breaks just right. With a strong pitching staff coming back (featuring a healthier Roy Halladay and an NL East leading 705 runs allowed), they could ascend into contention with the sluggers, and many fans would argue that relevance is well worth the extra money.

Blyleventh Heaven

On Tuesday, I mentioned the new website www.BertBelongs.com, and I was glad to find out today that the site is in its developmental phase, and plans to add more features in the future. I’m hoping for a petition, and it would not surprise me to see some noteworthy people sign it if word got out. Sometimes I feel like the magnitude of Blyleven’s snub gets overlooked because he is a bit of a good-natured clown, and does not react harshly to being jobbed. I believe Blyleven has been refused admission to Cooperstown because his success was spread out over a long period and his style was not particularly intimidating. He absolutely belongs in the Hall anyway, and I think his eventual election is inevitable.

First, Blyleven and Don Sutton provide an interesting historical parallel. According to www.Baseball-Reference.com, Sutton is the historically most similar player to Blyleven, and he was elected to the Hall in 1998, the first year in which Blyleven appeared on the ballot. That year, Sutton received 386 votes (81.6%) to Blyleven’s 83 (17.5%). That means that 303 respected baseball writers thought that one of these two extremely similar players belonged, but not the other. Seven years later, Blyleven has been on the ballot longer than Sutton was before his election, and he is still well short of the election. What is the line that so clearly divides the two in the minds of many writers? Sutton played one more year, pitched about 300 more innings, won 324 games to Blyleven’s 287, gave up 42 more HRs, walked almost exactly as many batters (1343 to Blyleven’s 1322) and struck out almost 250 fewer. Sutton’s ERA was 3.26 largely in the NL, good for 8% better than league average, while Blyleven finished at 3.31, but the run environment in the AL makes him 18% better than league average. Sutton spent most of his career with a solid Dodgers’ squad, going to the postseason five times and the World Series four times (thrice with LA). Blyleven made the postseason three times, winning two pennants. Curiously, Blyleven has two rings to Sutton’s zero. The extra regular season wins from being on a better team, though, coupled with the pitcher friendly nature of Chavez Ravine, makes up for much of the difference in total wins between the two. Still, I fear that many voters look only to the cumulative totals and not the circumstances in which they were achieved. Just like hitters are given a break for playing the ‘60s, Blyleven should get a pass for pitching for 8 winning teams in 22 years.

Also, Blyleven was very good for a very long time; a style which Bill James claims hurts candidates. ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons makes one of those arguments against Blyleven, saying that he was never the type of player for whom fans turn out to watch play. But that argument is silly, because fans buy tickets for bobble heads and pinch-hitting little people, but they are not Hall of Famers. Similarly, if a player played in empty stadiums his whole career and hit 900 HRs, he would also deserve to be in the Hall.

To be fair, Jay Jaffe points out that a high peak may have more value to a team than sustained solid play, since it can help push a team over the top in one season, all other things being equal. Blyleven is not a borderline case for whom this argument is important, though. He won 20 once, 19 once and 15 five times. He had eight 200 strikeout seasons, and nine sub-3.00 ERA seasons. From 1971-76, he threw at least 275.3 innings every season, topped out at an even 3.00 ERA, struck out at least 219 batters a year and averaged better than 16 wins a year. That’s a pretty solid peak. The fact that he threw 325 innings in ’73 and over 240 14 times and remained effective enough to go 17-5 with a 2.73 ERA at age 38 (and continue pitching until age 41) is downright astonishing.

Blyleven’s pitching style and personality have also conspired against him, as he does not meet the classic intimidator prototype that grizzled baseball writers talk about while chewing tobacco. He threw one of the greatest curveballs of all time, but some writers use that against him, as if it isn’t a manly enough pitch. They say he was an average pitcher with a freakish curve, but Nolan Ryan was an average pitcher with a freakish fastball, and that worked pretty well for him. More importantly, Blyleven got wonderful results, but in some of the wrong categories. Despite his durability, he only finished in the top five in the league in wins twice, top ten six times, a result of his sub-par teammates. Meanwhile, he finished in the top seven in strikeouts every year from ’71-’81, missed time in two years with injuries, then finished in the top eight from ’84-’87, including a league lead in 1985. All of this success came around the time when Crash Davis got away with telling his charge that throwing strikeouts was a bad idea because it brought the rest of the team down. Even though he was incredibly effective at striking batters out and had above average command (never finishing in the top 6 in BBs in spite of his copious inning totals), he only made two All-Star games because people did not appreciate the value of his skill set at the time. Even today, Twins fans are familiar with his jovial style in the booth, almost to the point that it makes it difficult to take him seriously. It isn’t difficult to infer how writers would react to a personality like his.

According to a couple of Bill James’s Hall of Fame predictor metrics, Blyleven rates as an average to above average Hall of Fame pitcher. There are 62 current Hall of Fame pitchers. Allowing for a couple of mistakes by the Veterans Committee and some margin of error in the metric, Blyleven is better than at least 25 current Hall of Fame pitchers. To continue excluding him is a mistake.

On the bright side, I think Blyleven is headed on the right track. In the 2005 voting, he received 211 votes (40.8%), needing 75% for election. The players ahead of him who were not elected (meaning they will reappear this year) were Bruce Sutter, Jim Rice, Goose Gossage and Andre Dawson. Sutter and Rice are close, possibly within a year or two of admittance. Gossage needs a change of heart about relief pitchers, but probably deserves a spot and will have one in time. Dawson is nowhere near Hall of Fame worthy, another reflection of a time in which fans did not correctly allocate value to certain abilities. And then comes Blyleven. Voters usually vote for about 6.5 candidates out of 25 on the ballot. With no new entries seeming likely to pass Blyleven on the list this year, the election of a couple of those in front of him would leave Blyleven in prime position for election the next couple of years, giving him plenty of time to be elected with seven more years of eligibility.

To learn more, visit www.BertBelongs.com and write to Hall voters. Bert’s cause may not be vitally important to anyone’s survival or well-being, but as long as baseball is a worthwhile diversion, Bert’s candidacy is worth endorsing.

Whitewash

It doesn’t do much for my Minnesota chops to say that I saw my first snow of the year on Monday, and it might be even worse that I’m happy to see it. While all of you suffer through negative temperatures and icy streets, I get to throw snowballs at my friends in the 40 degree bliss that comes with living in the Potomac drainage basin. But the baseball news is piling up, and I am inexcusably behind. Ok, I’m not paid and I write for fun, so it is probably excusable. Nonetheless, there is a lot to talk about today so I’ve got one extended lightning round of comments.

-In the proud tradition of FireRonZook.com and KeepManny.com, some (presumably) Twins fans have fired up http://www.BertBelongs.com/ to spread the Hall of Fame credentials of Bert Blyleven. In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that the webmaster put in a link to this site, but they do an excellent job. I’m biased by growing up on Blyleven’s commentary, but it’s a pretty egregious mistake to keep him out of the Hall. Bill James has pointed out that players who are good for a long time are less likely to make it into the Hall than players with similar career stats and a high peak. Blyleven fits that description perfectly. Baseball Reference keeps track of Black Ink and Grey Ink in reference to how many league leads and league top-10s a player puts up in his career (the name comes from the stats on the back of a baseball card), and Blyleven is well above average in Grey Ink and well below average in Black Ink for a Hall of Famer. Even though it may be too late, I’m glad there is a concerted effort to do something constructive on the part of Twins fans.

-The big news of the day is the Jays’ signing of A.J. Burnett, further indication that J.P. Riccardi is trying to corner the market on his initialed brethren, including B.J. Ryan. Funny side story; Ryan’s initials are not B.J., but his family called him “Bo Junior” after his dad, which he described as the “pure redneck” roots of his nickname. By any name, Toronto has now committed $102 million for 10 years of two players who haven’t combined for five decent seasons. I’m not that low on Burnett; as I wrote in my free agent preview, I think he is the only marquee name available this year who has a good chance of having his best season in the future. Even though he has had sub-par road stats thus far, he has decent strikeout numbers, induces plenty of groundballs and does not give up that many HRs. The downside comes from the years in the deal. Does anyone actually believe Burnett will make 150 starts over the life of the deal? So far he has lived up to that pace for all of one season, which is one less than the number of substantial elbow surgeries he has had since reaching the majors. I would not be surprised in the least if he fails to make 100 starts and becomes a huge burden by the last year of the deal. The Jays’ off-season strategy deserves a more extensive treatment, and I’m looking forward to dedicating a whole column to it.

-The third base sweepstakes has taken a turn for the Twins with Bill Mueller reportedly getting priced out of Terry Ryan’s budget by competing offers from San Francisco, Los Angeles (NL edition) and the defending champs. I liked the idea of bringing in Mueller as an under-the-radar guy, but once several teams starting bidding on him, it is hard to say that the Twins can manipulate a market that has undervalued his skill set. In other words, I’m glad to see them back out on this one. So where do we go from here? Hank Blalock’s name has been kicked around for a few weeks, but I seriously doubt that Ryan will panic and give up Liriano or Baker for someone hits like Neifi Perez outside of Arlington. Another possibility is Joe Crede, a good fielder who is young but has plenty of limitations as a hitter. Additionally, acquiring Crede involves the obstacle of getting him out of Chicago, as he remains under contract. The Sox are reportedly dissatisfied with him, and thusly pursuing Mueller. If they get Mueller (big if), it could mean they trade Crede or non-tender him later in the off-season, although I assume Kenny Williams would try to get him out of the division. Mike Lowell is another possibility mentioned by the Strib, and he would likely cost Romero and Ford. Lowell, ugh, I’m not going into it. Ryan has been astute enough with trades recently that I expect him to have something working behind the scenes, so look for more names to surface in the next few days.

-The Pirates traded Dave Williams to the Reds for Sean Casey, a trade which I thoroughly do not understand on Pittsburgh’s part unless there is a cash payment on the way. Casey is an injury-plagued and aging first baseman without enough power to make him worth his bloated $8.5 million a year contract. Sure, the Pirates have more than enough lefty starters (Perez, Snell, Duke, Burnett, Maholm, Redman), but they should be viewed as resources rather than burdens. Williams is not a star, but Cincy can use a starter who will probably go about 150 innings around league average. My summation is that Pittsburgh thinks they are a lot closer to the playoffs than anyone else does, needing only a little push to get in the race. The worst part may be that his at bats will probably trade off with Craig Wilson’s (Wilson’s has a better career Equivalent Average, .288 to .284). Jim Tracy will have plenty of corner guys, such as Casey, Wilson, Rob Mackowiak and Daryl Ward, and Casey does little more than handcuff their versatility at a massive cost.

-In non-baseball news, I saw a few minutes of the Billboard Music Awards when I was on the treadmill at the gym, and it involved the highest of high comedy: Ashlee Simpson singing live. I didn’t understand why she caught so much hell of lip syncing on SNL, because I had heard her sing live a couple of times before, and she needs the tape. Tonight, she wore some ridiculous and unbecoming black tights thing (I don’t know fashion) and did a duet with an anonymous music-industry generated hip hop quartet. She sort of danced, stuck to two or three notes that don’t make her voice crack and pretended that her conservative Texas Christian upbringing fit in with these heavily commodified black teenagers. She sang a song that had the chorus “I’m talkin’ ‘bout love!” followed by a guitar fill, as if she had never heard “Ain’t Talkin’ ‘Bout Love” by Van Halen, which she was clearly pirating. It’s almost as if she thinks she’s a rock singer but hasn’t ever listened to Van Halen. Actually, that is definitely the case. She’s a terrible singer, not nearly attractive enough to get by on her looks and famous only because of her family and MTV. Maybe I’m exacerbating the problem by writing about it on a baseball website, but it makes me feel better. Here’s to real talent and non-Clear Channel radio.

-On a happier music note, Tony Parker of the San Antonio Spurs recorded a French hip hop album during the off-season, and Tim Duncan commented in Sports Illustrated that Parker didn’t let him guest star because Parker was afraid that Duncan would show him up with his rap skills. Tim Duncan rapping is one of the funniest music-sports crossovers, right up there with Bernie Williams: jazz guitarist. Some other humorous crossover possibilities? Barry Manilow in the NBA, Sergei Federov appearing on a Wu Tang album or Fat Joe actually playing in the Rucker. If you have any more ideas, put them in the comments for a good time; the possibilities are multiplicitous (not endless, there is a finite number of athletes, musicians, sports and music styles). Personally, I’m waiting on Ashlee Simpson to try her hand at heavyweight boxing (Kidding- I don't want to see anyone get hurt. Public humiliation will do nicely).

A Whole New Luis

The news of the day: Terry Ryan finally blinks and decides to spend his copious pitching assets on some offense. As Twins fans, we are naturally biased to like the trade at first glance, but I am pretty confident that the trade will look just as good a month from now, and, more importantly, at the end of the 2006 season. In a nutshell, the Twins got someone who can hit and field for a couple of indistinguishables in their arm-rich system. Let’s take a look at the component parts, starting with Scott Tyler and Travis Bowyer.

Tyler is a hard thrower with a big body (6’5”, 265 lbs), the type of reliever who can be very fun to watch. He spent the season at high-A ball, starting 23 games and pitching 118 innings. On the bright side, he struck out 109 batters, a strong indicator for success at higher levels. On the other hand, he walked 48, a ratio of 3.7 per nine innings, which is probably too high for a major league starter. Coupled with concerns over his 18 HR allowed, scouts project him as a big league reliever with a live arm. That sounds familiar.

Bowyer is a similar case, but a couple years further along in his development. This hard throwing, big bodied righty saved 23 games in AAA before an unsuccessful September call-up. Between two levels, he totaled 108 Ks and 43 BBs in 85 IP, striking similar to Tyler at a higher level, although he gave up only 7 HRs, 3 of which came in 9 big league innings. Bowyer touched 100 on the radar gun in the Arizona Fall League, but speed isn’t everything, as he was lit up for almost two hits per inning and a 9.39 ERA. Florida GM Larry Beinfest said he plans to use Bowyer in the Marlins’ bullpen next year, and his named has been bandied about as a potential closer of the future. He needs another pitch, though, as he has reportedly given up on his change and needs plenty of work on his slurvy breaking pitch so he won’t keep getting rocked at higher levels- his MLB and AFL stints combined for 38 hits and 7 HRs allowed in only 25 IP. Still, with a little work, he has a ton of upside, and I was excited to see him fill the Matt Guerrier role as developmental mop-up project for the Twins this year.

That’s not to say I’m upset with the deal, though, as the Twins got back a good patch for one of their gaping holes. Castillo was worth 27.7 runs of VORP last season despite missing about 30 games with nagging leg trouble (troublesome in its own right). In full playing time, alternate second base pipedream Alfonso Soriano posted a 47.8 VORP while the best Twin was Luis Rodriguez at 4.6. Soriano and Castillo were basically the same player in terms of EQA (Soriano leading .283 to .281), which adjusts for playing time and ballpark, which indicates that Soriano’s extra at-bats and better run-scoring environment (league, ballpark, lineup) were the only differences between the two. If both are healthy in 2006, they would put up roughly the same total contribution to the Twins. And that is without considering Soriano’s cost to the team, which could be as high as $10 million, Francisco Liriano and about 30 runs in the field. All told, Castillo is better than any second baseman on the market in a walk, and a far better deal than anyone who could be had in a trade.

Castillo has his warts, though, as his legs have lots of mileage on them. He who once stole at least 50 bases in consecutive years has been reduced to 10-20 steals and lingering questions about the health of his legs. He avoided the DL last year, but thrice sat out at least seven consecutive games with minor injuries. He’s already on the wrong side of 30, meaning he has probably seen his best days, but his upside includes a .300 average, 75 BBs, 140 games and a glove that has improved every year since 1998 in terms of fielding rate. Offensively, he’s a switch hitting Shannon Stewart at the time the Twins acquired him, and that worked out pretty well. Factor in his Gold Glove defense up the middle and a very modest $5 million price tag, and he will make a major difference. His top comps are the all field, no hit Harold Reynolds and the all hit, no field Jose Offerman. Let’s hope he can split the desirable part of the difference.

How major will that difference be, though? The Twins have to make up about 100 runs next year, and it would be hard to shave much off of their 662 runs allowed, only 19 from the league lead. The league averaged 771 runs scored and the Twins scored 688, so becoming a league average offensive team would probably approximate contention in the AL Central, with Chicago due for a regression to the 90-95 win range and Cleveland losing out on many of their top FA targets. Castillo can probably be counted on to add 30 runs over what they got out of 2B last year, which is a great start when combined with a pie-in-the-sky rebound projection for Morneau. But they cannot give up yet, as they still have pretty big holes at DH and either RF or 3B, depending on where Cuddyer doesn’t land. With Frank Thomas potentially in the works and Bill Mueller in the back of everyone’s mind, the Twins could look pretty rickety in 2006, but with much more on-base and overall offensively potential.

This subject probably deserves more attention, and I promise that I will give it its due, but I’m 12 hours from the LSAT, and miles to go before I sleep.