High Five Friday

While I believe the incessant labeling of Minnesota as a small media market is unnecessary and overblown, this year’s All-Star voting moves toward legitimating the notion that people simply do not pay attention to the Twins. Joe Mauer recently passed Albert Pujols, surging to the second highest VORP in the majors, trailing only Travis Hafner by about three runs over replacement level. Comparing Mauer to his competition makes his case even more compelling. Perennial All-Star Pudge Rodriguez once again sits near the top the voting; only an injury in 2002 and a stint in the NL in 2003 have kept him off of the team since 1992, speaking not only to his ability but to his unbelievable durability and longevity behind the plate. He will probably retire with more than 2500 H, 300 HR, a .300+ BA, and about a dozen Gold Gloves, so I have no problem making him a fixture in the game. Jason Varitek, on the other hand, leads the voting, but only because his catcher’s C doubles as a captain’s C for a team with lots of casual fans. Varitek has aged reasonably well, still playing above-average defense (105 Rate), but with only the 15th best VORP for catchers in the AL. That barely qualifies him for the All-Star ballot, much less the starting position with 25% more votes than (arguably) the best player in the league in 2006- Mauer. Joe’s defense has been even better (107 Rate), and his VORP is TWELVE TIMES HIGHER THAN VARITEK’S. I apologize for my tone, but Mauer is out-slugging Varitek by .132, out OBP’ing him by .114, and out-hitting him by .136. I know the All-Star game is a showcase for the game’s most popular players, but at this rate, they might as well just have the Yankees and Red Sox play a barnstorming series while the rest of the league takes the weekend off.

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I came across an interesting bit on Justin Morneau on the Twins official site, not because it attributes his improvement to the masterful psychological powers of hitting coach Joe Vavra, but because it deliberately throws Morneau under a ladder surrounded by black cats. “Morneau's almost a lock to become the organization's first 30-homer hitter in two decades,” says the lead, contradicting the better sense of anyone who has ever followed baseball. I do not put much stake in curses or superstition, but certain customs are worth maintaining. You don’t spit in the wind, you don’t step on Superman’s cape, you don’t pull the mask off of the Lone Ranger, and you don’t fool around with Justin. Or at least you don’t start talking about how he finally has it all figured out. Time and again, we have learned that this practice works about as well as vocally rooting for a no-hitter after the first batter flies out to the warning track. I know the site is meant to support the team and generate positive reactions, but couldn’t they stick to just the facts, ma’am?

And the facts sound pretty good. In the arbitrarily selected period since June 9, Morneau is leading the world in everything, batting .437 with 26 RBI and slugging .837. In that time, the team is 14-2, and while Morneau might not be the single cause- the team has not even scored ten runs in a game in that period- it is not hard to draw a line from his performance to a much more complete offense. I will go out on a limb and predict that the .437 average is not sustainable for someone who still frequently looks lost at the plate. Anyone who watches the Twins frequently knows Morneau’s look of despair: anytime he faces a tough lefty, gets down 0-2 or 1-2, or faces a similar bout with the odds, his already juvenile visage becomes downright infantile. His eyes widen slightly, his jaw slouches back, causing his lip almost to quiver, and he looks like a toddler who followed the wrong look-alike leg in a supermarket and just realized he lost his mommy. Sure, he has made strides, but let’s just say that if I had to design a video game, his “clutch” rating (probably CLT) would not crack 65.

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The more I think about my alarm ringing at 5:30 tomorrow morning, the less I want to make it through all five comments, so the last three are lightning round:

Jim Souhan, the unofficial superintendent of the Twins’ news cycle, recently joined everyone else with a pulse and a Johan Santana jersey in voicing his frustration that the Twins recent hot streak has not vaulted them automatically into contention. Frustrating? Yes, but nobody deserves to be surprised. First, the Twins dug themselves into such a deep hole by preferring experience to talent for the first two months of the season that it would take at least this sort of effort to become relevant once again. They still only have the 6th best record in the AL, and have only half of a game on Oakland. It is nice that they have put together a few good weeks in a row, but Chicago and Detroit have experience at this sort of thing this year. I imagine the Sox and Tigers fans react to this streak with the type of condescendingly amused chuckle that Jack Nicholson would have given Frankie Muniz courtside at Staples Center if that Lakers-Clippers series ever materialized in the NBA playoffs. Moreover, part of the reason for the Twins recent dominance has been weak competition. Beating up on the Dodgers and Red Sox was impressive, but Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Cubs have been bad- not bad, just plain bad. So while the Twinkies have feasted on the weak NL Central, the Tigers and Sox have, well, feasted on the weak NL Central. If the AL set up an Interleague schedule with the finalists from the Little League World Series, the Twins would probably look good in that too, but once again, they would not gain much ground.

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Speaking of the morbid National League, I wrote this before the season:
“I have the AL performing a total of three games above .500 […] which deals with the general superiority of the American League. Consider some of the major player movements of the off-season: A.J. Burnett goes from NL to AL, Jeff Weaver from NL to AL, Jim Thome, Luis Castillo, Josh Beckett, Troy Glaus, Javier Vazquez, Esteban Loaiza. In Jim Baker’s article, he points out that the average projected VORP of transient pitchers going from the NL to AL is 28.0 while the average going the other way is 8.8. For a league that has won the World Series only twice in the last eight years, that kind of attrition doesn’t make for very good prospects. Not only are the worst of the AL generally better than the worst of the NL, most serious title contenders come from the AL too.”
The AL’s dominance in IL play should come as no surprise. Even in the short series league we call the postseason, the AL has won six out of the last eight titles, and the talent keeps going one way. Two of the trendy NL picks before the season, St. Louis and Atlanta, look like total frauds right now. The Cardinals threw as many names around Albert Pujols as they could find, but the aging process has taken a predictable toll on production and durability. Even Pujols has his own issues with back problems and an oblique strain that does not usually heal as quickly or permanently as those World Cup soccer players who go into convulsions until the referee turns away. Atlanta is a total disaster with half as much pitching as a contender would need, possibly confirming the suspicion that Leo Mazzone did his best work on the margins, and they have major flaws at every corner position- no offense from Francouer, Langerhans/Diaz, Laroche, no defense from Larry Jones. After the Twins made short work of the Dodgers and Ned Coletti wasted his best bargaining chip on a 5th starter and a third string catcher, the Mets look like the only worthy contender in the entire league. Maybe once the Astros get Brandon Backe and Andy Pettite playing and playing (reasonably) well, they will look like contenders again, but today, Florida may actually rank in the top half of the National League. Really.

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At least the National League has some real All-Stars. Albert Pujols is THE guy, and has 2.2 million All-Star votes, making him the unquestioned alpha dog of the balloting process. And while the NL team will have a major hole at C if Paul LoDuca wins the vote, the rest of the lineup is pretty compelling, ranging from young stars verging on perennial All-Star status (Bay, Wright, Reyes, Utley), to established big ticket guys in major markets (Soriano, Beltran). To me, the AL team lacks the same sort of intrigue. While it is one game, and only an exhibition at that, I feel very disappointed by the projected AL All-Star team. Ortiz, a DH, will play out of position by playing in a position for the NL-hosted game at first base. Robinson Cano gets the default start at second since there is no clear winner and he is in NY. Same for Jeter, really, but on a larger scale and with a very qualified Miguel Tejada behind him. A-Rod… fine, but does anyone remotely like him at this point? Varitek has been even worse than LoDuca, but that ship has sailed. The outfield is the same old cast of first-name-only guys who take funny routes to fly balls: Manny, Ichiro, and Vlad. They are all great players and fun to watch, but all past their peak and only Manny is having a notably good year on a good team. Plus, the fact that the All-Star team does not have to have a centerfielder always bothered me. Why not just start the 9 best hitters, defense be damned? Actually, watching Travis Hafner try to play short might be extremely entertaining.

A Return to Relevance

Undoubtedly, one of success’ spoils is attention. Players readily acknowledge that they play for the fans as much as they play for themselves; imagine a scene where the Miami Heat celebrated their game six NBA Finals win in an empty arena- no fans, no cameras, no David Stern, no distraught Texans, no teary-eyed Mark Cuban. In the same vein, it is difficult for a fan when his or her team fades into irrelevance, receiving only standard beat reports about how so-and-so took some good BP and thinks he has corrected his swing. After four straight winning seasons, three of which ended in the postseason, the Twins firmly entrenched themselves in Major League Baseball’s collective consciousness, but a disappointing fade in 2005 followed by a lackluster 17-24 start in 2006 saw them riding in the AL Central’s backseat. The White Sox continue to ride high on the publicity hog with a World Championship and the most charismatic- good or bad- manager in the game (please do not ask me to take Jay Mariotti’s side on any issue). The Tigers make for a genuinely good baseball story, especially for newspaper writers who prefer to see success befall teams playing by the book. A team turning it around behind a lifer like Jim Leyland and a glovey, gritty leader like Pudge Rodriguez almost writes its own puff pieces. Kansas City has been so bad that out of towners at least fell sorry for the team and its fans, while Cleveland has received a fair amount of press for falling so far short of expectations.

All the while, the Twins slowly but surely circled the toilet bowl for the first month and a half of the season, not making a statement for their inclusion in the public dialogue, but not falling so far short as to warrant national attention- precisely the kind of negative reinforcement that may have forced changes sooner. Eventually, the level heads seized control of the organization from whomever made the egregiously poor value calculations that preferred Castro’s glove to Bartlett’s bat, White’s past to Kubel’s present and future, Lohse’s salary to Liriano’s dominance, and Batista’s… um, whatever Batista did to Punto’s marginally useful on-base skills. With the changes has come a relative outpouring of press, mostly positive, for the way the Twins have started leveraging their always strong farm system into results on the field. Some of the authors have provided clever and thoughtful insights into why the Twins have improved as they have, while others have not. I would like to relay some of the overriding themes of the articles to you in order to distill the usefulness from the editorial failure.

San Francisco Chronicle, 6/18, “Twins are princes at home but paupers on road,” by Mark Camps- This short article simply points out that the Twins have struggled on the road, but offers no explanation one way or the other. Camps recalls the “Dome Field Advantage” from the ‘80s and early ‘90s, but offers no discussion of how the team’s success rate has fluctuated as other teams moved away from turf and played more and more games outdoors with the closings of the Kingdome and the Astrodome. I truly believe that the Twins home-road splits are largely the vagaries of a small sample size and that their final road record will not be nearly so morbid having completed 81 games. Remember from my research on home field advantage last summer that it is not unusual for a team to win 25% more games at home than on the road, and the Twins have already started to experience a sharp correction.
New York Times, 6/18, “Mauer Kneels Before No One in Batting Race,” by Murray Chass- Clearly, Mauer has arrived when he makes it into the New York Times Sports section. Chass, a terrific writer, picked a good topic as Mauer surged to the AL batting lead, pointing out that no catcher had ever won the AL batting title. Even without much power (.142 ISO), Mauer is sandwiched between Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Beltran as the 8th most valuable offensive player in the majors with a 34.6 VORP, easily on pace to set the Twins single-season record once again. Chass interviewed both players who have been in batting title pursuits and former catchers who had to grind out ABs on progressively sorer knees late in the season, and all agreed that Mauer’s heady approach to hitting gives him a good chance to stay in the race. Tony Pena pointed out that catching is also mentally draining, but Chass added that Mauer has hit .670 in his 27 ABs as a DH this year.

Houston Chronicle, 6/21, “Squeezed by small market, Twins get top players young and cheap,” by Terrance Harris- Another worthless piece reiterating that there are multiple approaches to building a ball club that have worked through the history of the game. Different teams win in different ways, and while it may be easier to patch holes in the near term through free agent acquisitions, that type of roster constructions can be weak on the edges with little cheap and malleable talent available from having given away so many draft picks. Harris is reiterating Michael Lewis’s central theme from Moneyball, but in a much less controversial manor, largely because it does not include critical analysis, numbers, or Billy Beane’s ego. An interview with Gardenhire yielded the only truly interesting part of the article, where he points out some of the drawbacks of signing free agents and insists that the days of being content to finish .500 are long gone. It seems as if his view of history places 2002-2004 closer to the present than 2005, as the team has very recently thrown away money on free agents (moves which Gardenhire vociferously praised through his insistence on playing the likes of Castro, White and Batista) and contented itself with finishing very near .500. I guess I ought to stop being surprised when Gardenhire shows an inability to think critically.

Baseball Prospectus, 6/23, “Stealing the Spotlight,” by Joe Sheehan- Sheehan’s article was the one that really caught my attention, because I generally regard his chosen topics as reflective of the most important baseball stories in the current news cycle. In my estimation, Sheehan’s greatest strength is his ability to step back and discern the important parts of a team’s makeup or performance from the irrelevant parts. He compliments the Twins decisions while remaining critical of their timing, saying that the Twins could have been real contenders if they put their best lineup on the field at the start of the season rather than giving some very worthy opponents a considerable head start. He writes that, “The best thing to come out of this season, if Ryan and Gardenhire take the lesson, is an understanding that experience is no substitute for ability. The decision to play veterans over the ready products of the system cost them a number of wins early in the season, and if it’s too late to salvage 2006, perhaps learning that lesson can have a positive impact on 2007 and beyond.” Ultimately, he is right. Winning 14 of 16 will make any fan start to think of getting back into contention, no matter how bad the team has been, but the Twins are about as likely to play .800 baseball the rest of the way as they are to play .200. Let us be encouraged by good play, maybe even as a signal that the Twins have removed the bad decision making from their system- Gardenhire clearly prefers good gloves to good bats, Krivsky may have been a driving force behind some of the bad pickups, as his reacquisition of Castro hints. At the same time, let us not forget that an eventual championship is the ultimate goal and that the team is best off building toward that goal over the long term. That brings me to the next article.

ESPN.com, 6/23, “What would you do about Torii?” by Jason Stark- Stark highlights the roster issue most emblematic of the Twins transition from one core to another. The focus of this press surge clearly demarcates Mauer, Santana, Liriano, etc as the most important players on the current roster, but Terry Ryan, casual Twins fans, and Torii himself all realize the impact his glove and his smile have on the team. Retaining him reflects an understanding of different economic circumstances going into the new stadium, both in terms of the extra spending and the symbolic transition with him on the field, but Stark highlights the fact that the move is four years away. Hunter will likely be scarcely useful by that time, and spending big to retain him is a PR move more than a baseball move. That formula never works. I have said it before, but let me reiterate: Hunter’s glove and perceived status as a leader (read: quotability) make him an overvalued commodity. I would rather see my team cash in its fool’s gold for more stable assets than buy into the market’s inefficiencies.

Arizona Republic, 6/25, “Twins M&M boys provide nice 1-2 punch,” by Joseph Reaves- Almost every article I have read deals primarily with either Mauer, Liriano, or both. Liriano started getting attention nearly commensurate with his performance after his impressive national television debut that doubled as a public shaming of the greatest pitcher of the generation. Reaves went another step in his article, invoking the legend of the 30 homerun hitter and possibly jinxing the rest of Morneau’s season. Does anyone else feel like his current sustained hot steak is just a little too good to be true? Out of town writers catching on is probably either a sign that it is for real, or else that we are set up for titanic disappointment in the very near future.

.500

It had to happen eventually. The Twins may not be an elite team in the American League, or even in the Central Division, but they are certainly better than they were playing for the first two months of the season. The pitching staff was underachieving, the defense was awful, worse than one would reasonably expect it to be given its components, and the offense had problems that were masked by a handful of one game explosions. My greatest fear was that the Twins would go on a hot streak before making the appropriate adjustments and the management and local media would give credit to the veteran leadership of Batista and Castro, cementing their status as money-sucking regulars, and prevent the possibility of initiating the far advantageous youth movement. Luckily, the collective rebound concurred with the start of some overdue roster moves. Perhaps not coincidentally, swapping Silva and Lohse out for Liriano and Bonser started making the starting rotation look a little deeper and more consistent. Terry Ryan and his compatriots appropriately took note, subtracting more veteran dreg like Batista and Castro at the start of a seven game (and counting) winning streak. If Ryan is paying close enough attention, he will take note of Shannon Stewart’s eminent expendability as the trade deadline nears. Certainly there is some relationship between adding the more talented Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto, and Luis Rodriguez to the regular lineup, and all of them have made conveniently memorable plays to cement their status as not only regulars, but essential cogs in an improved lineup. Still, the most significant component of the improvement is way the most important players have almost all turned in better performances in June than they did in April or May.

After starting the month 1-5 and struggling through a difficult west coast road trip, the Twins avoided a sweep in Seattle on the eighth, starting a 9-1 stretch that brought them from 25-33 to 34-34, within shouting- or perhaps bellowing- distance of the unconscious division leaders who are still well over .600. While contention is still several good breaks away from being a reality- BP’s playoff odds report gives the Twins a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs, worse than Cleveland who has once again underperformed its run differential in the standings-, a collapse at the top is conceivable, and the Twins improvement is quite possibly real. A few weeks ago, I identified the Twins defense as being so horribly ineffective as to be perhaps the biggest impediment to the team’s success. Since that time, the Twins have improved from converting 64.7% of batted balls into outs to converting 66.8% of balls into outs, a somewhat staggering improvement for only a few short weeks. Certainly, bumping the lead-footed Batista off of the hot corner has made a big difference, especially with Luis Rodriguez making up four full runs over replacement level in only 11 starts at third. His true level of performance is probably much lower, but his success contrasts starkly with Batista’s struggles, providing an interesting and telling instance of what “defensive replacement” truly means. Similarly, Nick Punto has made some uncharacteristically flashy defensive plays in the last week at very opportune times, saving a run in the 12th inning against Boston and making nice plays with men on base in each of the first two games against Pittsburgh. Even though history indicates that neither Punto nor Rodriguez is as good of a fielder as they have been for the last couple of weeks, but if you are wondering what caused the sudden turnaround, the team-wide revelation of catching the ball has played no small role.

In an intrinsically related development, the pitching staff has started to look more like the lights out unit that we expected at the start of the year. The team has outscored the opposition 60-30 over the most recent 10 games, and nine of those runs surrendered came in the one loss to Baltimore in Carlos Silva’s undeserved second start since returning from the bullpen. Other than Silva, the rest of the staff has been solid or better. Brad Radke had a disastrous April, making the rest of his season look much worse than it really has been. Even though he has not had lights out starts or complete games, Radke has consistently been himself for the last month and a half with a 4.33 ERA. The strikeouts have not been there (6 in 18.2 IP this month), but he has reduced his HR allowed from 10 in 26.1 April innings to 5 in 54 innings even since. While Radke and Bonser have been merely adequate, Liriano and Santana have immediately delivered on the long-term dreams hopes and dreams we all held for them as the best lefty duo in recent memory. In only 6 starts, Liriano has already pitched well enough to combine with Santana as the top duo in the majors in terms of VORP, just outpacing Detroit’s Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander (Liriano’s top ROY competition), 60.4-55.6- not including Santana’s start in Pittsburgh. In the five games the two have combined to start in the 9-1 streak, they are 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in 34 IP with a 37-4 K-BB ratio. Even the bullpen has been exceptional: Nathan and Rincon have continued their dominance, but with more high leverage situations available in which to show it. Jesse Crain has even strung together some good outings, reducing his ERA from 7.97 on May 27th to 5.81 today by giving up only 2 ER in his last 10.2 IP.

Offensively, Joe Mauer has carried the team, hitting like Ted Williams with a glove, trailing only Travis Hafner in the AL in VORP, and equaling Albert Pujols (Albert freakin’ Pujols) in positional marginal lineup value at 28.4 runs. Mike Cuddyer has actually cooled off a bit, hitting .218 in the month, but 13 walks have maintained his value to the team, and his .529 SLG is still the best on the squad. Kubel has also provided lots of offensive help, and will hopefully continue to do so after Stewart returns from the DL. Bartlett has had a similar effect in a very short time, but Morneau has been the real breakout star of the offense. After 22 April strikeouts and a .208 average, Morneau has scorched a .353/.397/.686 line in June and only 25 stirkeouts in his last 146 ABs. Forget about the first Twin to hit 30 HR in a season in 20 years, Morneau is on pace for 38, and with his current hot spell, that pace could look even better in a couple of weeks.

That is what has been right for the last week and a half. The Twins still have major problems, such as the lack of a major league caliber third baseman, a decent fifth starter and many on-base issues at almost every position but catcher. A .900 winning percentage would be nice for the rest of the season, but the odds are that they will stay a few games behind legitimate contention. For the time being, just step back and enjoy a stretch of good baseball after a long period of frustration. The Twins have better days ahead, and we can hope that the last 10 games are a preview of 2007 and beyond more than an indication of the current roster’s upside.

Twins Notes

Back from Argentina for only a few hours, I re-acclimated myself to the culture by watching the Santana-Schilling duel up close. Not that I have anything against soccer- watching Argentina’s first game in a bar with diehard fans was one of those experiences so appropriate that you could paint a picture of it- but even Latin Americans cannot resist a game as exciting as baseball. Tuesday’s affair had everything you could ask for, Santana coming out firing in the marquee pitching match-up, Schilling answering the bell to make up a tête-à-tête of contrasting styles, Varitek and Cuddyer adding to the suspense by finally finding a small chink in the opposing pitchers’ armor, and Jason Kubel dramatically bringing the team back from the dead with his hit-of-hits, the walk-off grand slam. And even though the Twins will probably not play any particularly meaningful games the rest of the season, the Red Sox have cultivated enough of a fan base (that’s a euphemism for “bandwagon”) during the Theo Epstein era that the 33,000 fans in attendance got fired up and engaged in a little back and forth cheering. This game may well turn out to be the best Twins game to watch all season, and I was lucky enough to be there. A few observations:

-Gardenhire has become entirely too devoted to flip-flopping right and left-handed batters through the lineup. I understand that he wants to neutralize the opponents’ bullpen options, but there are several mitigating factors. For one, it is hard to imagine a scenario where it will make that much of a difference. Only Morneau has especially bad platoon splits against lefties, and Gardy would not pinch hit for him anyway, so that match-up will still come at the opposing manager’s discretion. In this particular game, Boston did not even have a particularly strong lefty reliever, so the move was even less strategic. And even though lineup construction only matters for a few runs a year one way or another, having Lew Ford batting near the top of the order is a recipe for disaster. While I cannot prove anyone else would have fared better, Ford had two terrible plate appearances that may have ended the game with much less consternation: in the first inning, he grounded weakly into a double play with Castillo on first immediately before Mauer hit a gap single that may have moved Castillo up two bases. In the ninth inning, Castillo led off with a double that hugged the left field line, needing only a sac bunt to give Mauer a chance to end it with a fly ball, and Ford somehow hit a chopper that ended the threat by letting Youkilis throw Castillo out at third. So maybe the lineup issue is not the real problem, but it is symptomatic of the bigger problems that Gardenhire is too doctrinal in his playing time distribution (fixed lineups, defined bullpen roles, failure to creatively use versatile players over several years) and remains too dedicated to older players.

-Mauer only had one hit in the game, hardly in line with hitting .500 for the rest of the season, but I feel like his hot streak has been the most exciting Minnesota storyline of the year so far. Every few years, a player who usually hits over .300 gets hot for a couple of months and makes it look like he could break the 60-year streak of .400-lessness. But there is a reason Ted Williams keeps that distinction. The vagaries of batting average allow for a good hitter to hit .400 for a couple of months just as easily as they allow Derek Jeter to hit under .200 through May like he did two years ago. If you flip a coin a thousand times, there will probably be a stretch of 100 in there somewhere with 65% heads or tails. Similarly, if you think of a .300 hitter as a weighted coin with a 70/30 probability, enough flips will eventually come up .400 for a while. The problem is that Mauer and other hitters come to the plate enough times in a season to start to even out the binomial probabilities over time. That leaves the question of what Mauer is likely to do the rest of the year. The short answer is that he is still the same player he was before the year and we should treat his projection as such. In other words, he did not suddenly mature into a .400 hitter, but remains a .315-ish hitter who had a couple of good months. That does not mean he is due to struggle, but it does mean that he is more likely to hit .315 the rest of the year than he is to hit .400, or .250 for that matter. Still, he has covered considerable ground already this season by going 82-215 so far. If he finishes the year with 530 ABs (roughly his AB/G extrapolated over 145 games) and hits .315 the rest of the way, he would go 99-315, still good for a .342 BA and a good shot at the batting crown. Handicapping the batting race would probably have to start with a .340 hitter, but with Ichiro having a good year, I would still prefer to put my money on him.

-Remember what I said a paragraph ago about Mauer being the Twins’ most exciting storyline? Maybe I should take that back now that the oppressive Batista regime has been toppled. DFA’ing that creaky mess can only mean good times ahead, as Jason Bartlett filled his roster spot. Even if Juan Castro assumes the starting job at third base, nobody will mistake him for a permanent solution, or even possibility, so we can consider the future instead of the unhappy present. Even simply replacing Batista in the lineup with Bartlett and shifting Castro to third represents a big upgrade offensively (particularly in much needed OBP) and defensively. If Bartlett starts at short and either Rodriguez or Tiffee gets most of the time at the hot corner, that’s an even bigger improvement. More exciting is that Batista’s demotion on the heals of promoting Bonser and Liriano means that Terry Ryan understands that he needs to reload, stop throwing away money on nothing free agents, and dedicate time and money to developing position players who can contribute to a championship offense. In all likelihood, Rondell White will be the next domino to fall, saving some money and opening up a spot on the 40-man roster. Even the Torii Hunter trade rumors have come back, and while I believe the likelihood of such a trade is low, I will still allow myself to consider the rich possibility of selling high on the most overvalued commodity the team possesses.

Comparables Part II

My last entry dealt with a systematic way of making the inductive generalizations about players that we commonly call predictions. Using baseball history as a guide gives us the ability to detect trends in player development, which leaves us with different probabilities of progression. In examining Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Bartlett, I was able to crystallize some of the beliefs and stereotypes that I carry about these players. Mauer, for one, compares favorably with perennial All-Star catchers of the past who maintained a high level of performance behind the plate deep into their careers. Today, I will look into PECOTA’s black box of player comparisons to see what components of several other interesting players make up their essential qualities and draw comparisons to their predecessors.

Mike Cuddyer- Cuddyer is in a very unique position because he profiles as something of a utility player to this point in his career. Since projection systems use defensive alignment as part of the comparison, Cuddyer’s batting line may take a back seat to his inconsistent playing time and position because most instances of moving a player around are out of necessity- such as not hitting enough for the outfield or not fielding enough for the infield- instead of the Twins moving Cuddyer to find him some playing time. As such, four of his five most comparable players spent a substantial amount of time playing multiple positions, especially third base, first base, and outfield. Cuddyer, like many of the Twins pitchers, would probably have a significantly different list of comparables with a slight tweak in his record: if Cuddyer had played one position his entire career, it would be easier to pin down similar batters, but his status as something of a utility player disrupts that similarity. Many of the pitchers, especially Liriano, have small enough sample sizes to prevent a strong similarity score with any player, and their status as a starter or reliever has been unstable enough to this point that it is difficult to draw good comparisons. Still, Cuddyer’s top comparable showed enough of a bat as a third baseman that it makes Cuddyer’s future look reasonably bright. Doug Rader had only a .725 career OPS playing in the 1970s, but those stats came at the Houston Astrodome, which annihilates offense. Rader’s batting line was good for a .272 career Equivalent Average, which is not too shabby for an 11 year career.

Jason Kubel- Kubel is another player whose profile is not to be entirely trusted. Even though he as the type of aggressive plate approach and line drive power that we have seen time and again in the major leagues, few if any players have every suffered a similar injury and PECOTA has trouble forecasting injury recovery, except through the resulting performance (ie- players with knee injuries may suffer similar losses in speed which are reflected by lower batting averages, etc). Additionally, PECOTA has trouble dealing with Kubel’s lost season because it cannot distinguish between a season-long injury and a player who was out of baseball due to diminished skill. Therefore, Kubel has some of the lowest overall similarity scores among Twins players. Interestingly, former Twin Pedro Munoz, a fellow knee injury victim, appears 3rd on Kubel’s comparables list, a warning that he may never be what we expected, just as Munoz never lived up to his potential after his injury. Kubel’s most comparable player, Jackie Brandt, posted modest batting rates, but in the pitcher-friendly 1960s, it was good for a .269 EQA, well above what most would consider the drop rate. Kubel’s odd profile yields lots of odd comps, but lower on the list we start to see some recognizable names, like Richard Hidalgo (5th), Felipe and Matty Alou (17th, 19th), and Steve Garvey (20th). Clearly, Kubel’s line drive tendencies are an important part of his profile, but it will take time before we get a good read on exactly what the knee injury took away from him.

Torii Hunter- After his 30th birthday, we have a pretty clear read on what type of player Torii Hunter is. He will not murder teams with his bat due to his wild swings and lack of discipline, but he has enough pop to remain useful in the lineup. He has always made his money with his glove, playing what many believe is the best CF this side of Andruw Jones. Some statistics have Hunter rated much lower, and a few analysts have suggested that his gruesome ankle injury will eventually sap enough speed to force him to an OF corner. His statistical profile puts him in line with several players who moved to corners in their careers, often times earlier than Hunter did. Top comp Derek Bell was done in center by the time he was 26, number two Glenallen Hill never did more than spot duty in center, maxing out at 44 games in any given season. His third comparable, Mike Devereaux, lasted in center until his age 31 season, making him the closest thing to Hunter, but stuck around more as a utility outfielder than I would expect for Hunter. Overall, there is little reason to believe that Hunter will maintain enough fielding ability to last in center for much longer, and his price tag combined with his limitations at the plate make him a problem for the Twins if they pay the price to keep him past this year.

Johan Santana- Finding comparables for pitchers is a little less exact than it is for hitters due to the smaller sample sizes, especially for relievers. The Twins starters have more limitations than most because 60% of the starting rotation is made up of rookies. I discussed recently how Liriano and Bonser both have projections far below the level of performance I expect since their recent history, even this year, indicates further development. Even with these limitations, some of the more veteran pitchers have comparable lists worth examining, and I will never tire of discussing Johan Santana. It is no surprise that Santana is in rarified air, but leading off the comp list with Tom Seaver and Pedro Martinez is even better company. Santana is so dominant that handedness does not even enter the discussion at the top since there are so few lefties in his league historically who approximate his dominance. The system thinks so highly of his combination of power, command, and control that he even gets compared to Pedro’s 1999, the year that turned Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez into Pedro-freakin’-Martinez. Not surprisingly, Sandy Koufax makes an appearance at number 11, and the rest of the list is populated with all-time greats like Clemens, Pascual, Bunning, Tiant, and Jenkins and a couple of pitchers whose dominance was sidetracked by injuries, like Jose Rijo. The most important question for Santana has to be his durability and injury avoidance since so many star pitchers cannot keep up such a pace. Tom Seaver is seventh in innings pitched since 1950 and remained effective into his 40s even after topping 250 IP ten times. Pedro’s durability issues are common knowledge, but remaining one of the five or ten best pitchers in the majors into his mid-thirties is impressive in any era. While Mauer is the team’s most valuable asset financial over the next five years and beyond, Santana’s value is $61.4 million over replacement level, good for nearly 32 marginal wins over that time. He may prove to outperform that projection since it starts at $18 million this year and drops each year down to $8 million in 2010. I believe most of the decline is a hedge against the substantial risk of a serious injury rather than attrition, meaning that he will probably be worth much more or much less by the time that day comes (Think of it as something like a 1/3 chance of no value and a 2/3 chance of $16 million value).

Brad Radke- For Radke, the point of looking at a list of comparables would be to see if there is any chance of a significant rebound. Is there a tendency among players similar to him to bounce back from huge and prolonged slumps? His list starts with an encouraging name- Dennis Martinez, who pitched for 23 years, including more than a decade after he looked about ready to retire after five straight 5.00+ ERA seasons in the mid 1980s. I do not expect Radke to win 108 games after his 34th birthday like Martinez did, but it is encouraging that he was able to find success after massive failure. His second and third comps, Juan Marichal and Robin Roberts, had slow declines into their late 30s before retiring, so a sudden and complete collapse the likes of which we fear for Radke is not within his statistical profile. I cannot explain the reasoning with any certainty, but it stands to reason that a pitcher who never relied on stuff or power but on cunning and command would age better than one who needed every ounce of strength to get batters out. As I write this article, Radke has not confirmed any injury, but I suspect he may be covering for something more serious which is hurting his command, because the problems are not common with this style of pitcher.

Comparables

I have discussed the importance of comparable players in this space before. Baseball’s wealth of history provides a statistical reference that no other sport can claim. If you think about how we make player projections, even simple ones not derived from complex statistically algorithms, you will realize that every expectation you have on the future- in baseball or otherwise, really- is an inference based on how things have occurred up to that point. The most relevant question is how we make that inference and how legitimate it is. In other words, what is the process that allows us to make predictions with some accuracy? Certainly, we consider that player’s personal development, such as the expectation that young hitters develop power over time rather than all at once. But that knowledge is not innate; we only learn what a “typical” way for a player to develop is by observing other players. The most common ways for players to develop become understood as trends that other players will eventually follow. Philosophers call this process of induction a black box, where we put in some past knowledge and somehow churn out generalizations about the way of the world. Some say that there has to be constant conjunction between cause and effect for the generalization that comes out of the black box to be valid.

Unfortunately, baseball players are not perfectly uniform and there could never be constant conjunction between two players through every at bat and every play in the field. On the other hand, baseball players have so many recordable plays that it is easy to compare trends in one player’s career to trends in players’ careers who have come before him. The more statistically precise the statistical comparisons, the less margin for error exists in projecting for the future. For instance, if a new second baseman came along and had the exact same results as Roberto Alomar for his first 1000 plate appearances, we would have a pretty good idea how he would most likely develop from that point. Certainly, differences in league, competition, era, ballparks and the like throw off the comparison slightly, but statisticians can make translations that account for those differences. Furthermore, there are thousands of historical players who compare to modern players to different degrees, giving us the ability to weight individual comparisons and the most important correlations (which component stats lead to a high batting average? How does a player develop a power stroke?). Thus, historically comparable players provide an especially useful black box in making inferences about future player performances, both on the individual level and generalized for many players.

In the next couple of columns, I intend to look at a few of the most important Twins players and prospects to see what their most comparable players can tell us about the present and the future. Keep in mind, Baseball Prospectus uses weighted statistical averages of historically comparable players for its PECOTA projections, but these players are correlated at a particular age. This caveat becomes important when I discuss how Justin Morneau is comparable to a younger Richie Sexson. That comparison does not necessarily mean that Morneau will blast hundreds of homeruns in spite of high strikeout totals, because years ago Sexson ran a real risk of washing out himself. Remember that a comparison to a 24 year old Richie Sexson means that Morneau has the relative probability of improving or falling apart that Sexson had at that time. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that Sexson worked out, which tells us something valuable about his skill set, which we may be able to apply to Morneau to an extent. But we cannot assume that a player will approximate the best statistics of his most successful comparable player since there is a persistent risk of falling into the lowest dregs of the guys on the list who induce the “who the hell is that?’ response. Without further adieu, here are some of the things we can tell from historically comparable players.

Joe Mauer- Mauer is the Twins most valuable asset going forward. PECOTA projects his marginal monetary value at almost $66 million over the next five years, but do not be surprised if the Twins get a little bit of a hometown discount, since there is no way Mauer is going to work hard to get out of the Cities. He is the face of the franchise and his low HR totals artificially deflate his value on the open market, although those will probably come with time. Oddly, Mauer’s top ten comparables include Kent Hrbek (for batting average and left-handedness) and Austin Kearns (for youthful success). It is more useful to see his most comparable players: Joe Torre, Bill Freehan, and Ted Simmons; a Hall of Famer, an eleven-time All-Star, and a nine-time All-Star. Torre famously moved out from behind the plate to play full seasons at both first and third, but Freehan and Simmons spent their entire careers behind the plate save for a few games at first. Freehan was out of the league by the time he was 35, but Simmons lasted until 38, a remarkable run for a player with so many innings behind the plate. And as far as power development goes, Torre had his career best in HRs at 25, Freehan at 26, and Simmons at 29, so the 23 year old Mauer has some time left to develop.

Justin Morneau- I mentioned in the introduction that Morneau has Richie Sexson high on his list, which you might consider a strong complement. Temper that sentiment with the knowledge that his most comparable player is the 1985 version of itinerate first baseman Carmelo Martinez, who the Cubs sent out of town when he was only 23- not exactly a ringing endorsement of his future. Even though it seems like Morneau’s strikeouts are an essential part of his profile, something that has a profound effect on his development and current struggles, Martinez was never terribly strikeout prone. True, the mid-80s had less players swinging from their heels and going for the fences on with two strikes, but Martinez was altogether a different player, walking more than he struck out in a couple of seasons. He only played in 100+ games in six seasons, topping out at 21 bombs in 1985, so Morneau has already had at least one better season. Sexson comes next on the list, followed by Paul Konerko, and while both panned out, there were considerable concerns about high K rates for both of them. Strangely, all three players were traded before the end of their age-25 seasons, meaning that the Twins trading Doug Mientkiewicz to keep Justin Morneau may not have been such a no-brainer in the historical context.

Jason Bartlett- Bartlett’s list is actually extremely flattering and provides a strong account for his future. His most comparable player is 2003’s Jerry Hairston when the 23-year old was starting to get on base in the mid .300s and slug around .400- not star stats, but good enough for a slick fielding shortstop. Keep in mind that Hairston was considered a starting second baseman, but did not have the glove to compete with Brian Roberts in Baltimore, eventually shifting to an IF-OF utility role. Bartlett has no trouble fielding, so replicating Hairston’s bat will make him very worthwhile as an everyday starter. Dick Schofield, his number two comp, topped out at .249/.321/.397, but he played a very solid shortstop through his career, and exhibited a decent walk rate through his career despite a poor batting profile. Edgar Renteria also made the top five, but Bartlett’s top comps are littered with guys who were either strong fielders or decent hitters, but never put it all together. That he has already shown the ability to do both more than most of them bodes well for his future.

I will continue my analysis of comparable players with five more Twins and the historical players they resemble later in the week.

2010: Continued

In my last column, I started discussing some of the players that the Twins will use to build a contender by the time their new stadium opens in 2010. Joe Mauer provides a shining star as one of the most valuable commodities in the major leagues, but the middle infield does not have the certainty that Mauer provides at catcher. Some of the brighter positions are still to come, since the Twins have more depth and major league ready talent in the OF and nearly an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department. In all, the Twins seem to be in pretty solid shape with their strong farm system, and could gear up for another run at the division, this time with tougher competition coming from Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland in the newly dominant AL Central.

After years and years of consistency with Torii and Jacque next to Shannon Stewart, the outfield is in a state of flux. Jones is gone and Hunter and Stewart have guaranteed contracts through only the end of this season. Many commentators think of Hunter as the face of the team and the Twins best player, a perception that makes him extremely valuable on the open market. As I described in a recent article about the Twins defense, Hunter’s glove is still good, but he is not as dominant as he used to be. He is a worthy centerfielder- nothing to sneeze at- but is no longer worth $12 million as an average outfield batter. Stewart is injury prone and showed last year that he is pretty much cooked as a hitter. He had a good start this season, but that success rate is probably unsustainable, so the Twins would be wise to trade him to New York or somewhere else while his value is still high. If they can pick up an infielder who projects as a major leaguer, it would be something of a coup considering that he probably will not be worth more than one or two wins in the rest of his time with the Twins. Even if the front office lets him walk and takes the draft picks, they will be in fine shape going forward. Lew Ford still gets plenty of playing time and even has enough of a glove to spot start in center, giving him a little extra value in terms of versatility. Still, Ford’s bat limits him to being a fourth outfielder for a decent team, sort of a poor team’s Jay Payton. It is too bad that he is about to become more expensive, making him not worth the extra money they have to pay to keep him around. While the trio of Stewart, Hunter and Ford makes up the starting outfield occasionally for the 2006 Twins, I do not believe that any of them will (should?) be around for opening day in 2010.
Even though the Twins outfield will probably change pretty dramatically over the next couple of years, I think there is probably enough juice in house to fill the outfield cheaply and efficiently. Mike Cuddyer has been a pleasant surprise in 2006, finally finding his batting stroke after moving to a less challenging defensive position. I do not know if playing right field instead of third base has any tangible affect on his batting approach, but we might as well take a good thing where we can get it. He is not an exceptional outfielder, but he has enough of an arm to compensate for his lack of foot speed, and he should continue to improve a little for the next year or two. He has an incredible amount of raw talent, and it is not unfathomable that he could break through to be a .900 OPS guy for a couple of peak years. I know it does not have any practical meaning, but I continue to be encouraged by the fact that he does offseason workouts with Justin and B.J. Upton, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright. The other outfielders on the horizon are Jason Kubel, Alex Romero, and Denard Span. Kubel looked uncomfortable at the plate in his early season struggles at the major league level. Even though he looked good in spring training, getting into a strong rhythm in a higher-pressure situation can still pose a real problem. I do not believe he will have such trouble next time he gets a shot at the major leagues: imagine how difficult it would be to become a major league regular after not playing a meaningful game for over a year with an extremely serious injury. I have lots of leeway with Kubel, and I think his future is bright as a corner outfielder or as a DH. Alex Romero is the top hitting prospect in the Twins system who has not made it to the majors so far. Even his weighted mean PECOTA projection for this season has him hitting .287/.339/.437, a line that would put him in the same class as Shannon Stewart and clearly better than Lew Ford right now. Considering that he is only 22 years old, Romero has a very bright future as a big league outfielder, hitting .305/.383/.533 at AA and showing a good glove, playing above-average defense all the way. In fact, the Davenport translations had him as a plus center fielder in low-A in 2003, but the team moved him to the corner the next year and he has continued his good glove work. Romero’s big league ETA is probably 2008, but he should be one of the team’s top hitters in 2010. Denard Span is Hunter’s heir apparent in center, the only player in the system with enough speed for the team to deem him worthy of full-time duty in center. I expect Span to eventually start for the Twins in center, but his hitting profile shows the same weaknesses that scouts described when he was drafted in the first round out of high school in 2003. The .291 batting average for New Britain does not seem so bad, but all he provides is singles, so he needs to hit them more than 29% of the time. In 172 ABs, he has only 6 extra base hits and 12 BBs, good for a .291/.337/.343 batting line. He also struggles stealing bases, getting caught well over 1/3 of the time through his minor league career. If he plays exceptional defense, that batting profile could be acceptable for an 8 or 9 hitter, but I am afraid Gardenhire might make Span his personal Wily Taveras, destroying RBI chances for the strong hitters in the middle of the order. Perhaps it is a sign that I am unfair to Gardy that I am criticizing him for a decision he may or may not make five years from now. Like the players, any number of things could happen between now and 2010 to install a new manager anyway, but it is hard to imagine the long-leashed Twins giving up on him in the near future. In the meantime, the Twins have to find a cheap replacement for Hunter who can play CF every day, but who will not cost too much money or too many years. Ryan will have to use his scout’s eye to find an effective fielder who will not break the bank. He may be further away, but Kevin West is another name to keep in mind for the outfield of the future.

Due to the exceptional drafting and development of pitchers, the Twins pitching staff should be set for several years to come, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Johan Santana will not come cheaply over the next several years, but with only Mauer and possibly Morneau demanding big contracts in the next five years or so, Santana is the type of player worth overpaying. Liriano, Baker, and Bonser could make a fearsome 2-4 for a long time, and none of them will be eligible for free agency any time soon. Even if one or two of them fail, the organizational depth makes the starting rotation easy to fill. At AAA, J.D. Durbin still profiles as an eventual major league starter. His star has faded some, but he could make for an above average fifth starter without improving at all. New Britain has a pitching rotation that would be solid in AAA, and might not be that far behind a couple of major league staffs. At the top, Errol Simontisch has walked only one batter every four IP and surrendered only four homeruns. Lefty and former Gopher Glen Perkins is making himself into a real prospect with 54 Ks and only 17 BBs in 46.33 IP. As a college pitcher, he is a little older and does not have the high ceiling of some other Twins farmhands, but he could easily become a big league starter. Justin Jones has been a bit wild- 29 Ks and 15 BBs in 27.67 IP- in limited action, but do have some faith in the Twins coaches in transforming his electric stuff (what Peter Gammons called the best in the organization) into a productive pitcher. Pulling up the rear is Matt Garza, a pitcher who BP’s Kevin Goldstein described as this year’s Liriano for his dominance and growth into a top prospect. He pitched his way out of high-A, and has not given up an earned run in 13.67 AA innings, striking out 22 (!) and walking only 2. With stats like that, Garza could be the one starting the first game in the new stadium. Even Adam Harben has been discussed as a big league prospect, but he has struggled so far, walking more than he has struck out and earning himself a demotion. In all, the Twins have so many good pitchers that they could use them to fill offensive holes. They have had the same strength for the last several years and have not pulled the trigger, but if there is pressure to win quickly when moving into a new stadium, trading pitching prospects for established position players could become eminently possible.

The bullpen is not so easily projected, as relievers come from many different pedigrees. Joe Nathan is a failed starter from SF, so it is hard to say where the Twins will find their relievers in the future. Jesse Crain’s minor league results indicate that he could regain his composure and cement a place in the bullpen for several years, but Nathan and Rincon are already old enough that their time as top flight relievers could easily be finished by the time they get to the great outdoors. Consider the top closers and setup men in the game today, very few last for more than three or four seasons. Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are truly exceptional, and we cannot expect such a career from Nathan or Rincon. One name to keep in mind is Pat Neshek, currently the primary closer in AAA. In 32.33 IP, Neshek has a jaw-dropping 56:9 K:BB ratio and has allowed only seven runs. I also like Matt Guerrier as long as he remains cheap for the Twins. Beyond those players, it is difficult to speculate what could happen in the bullpen. Perhaps they will find some other teams’ washouts and polish them into productive players; perhaps they will turn their own staring prospects into starters, a possibility that could turn J.D. Durbin’s career around.

With all of the possibilities, the Twins lineup could look something like this on opening day 2010:

Jason Bartlett- SS
Jason Kubel- DH
Joe Mauer- C
Alex Romero- LF
Justin Morneau- 1B
Mike Cuddyer- RF
Matt Moses- 3B
Denard Span- CF
Alexi Casilla- 2B

Bench: Luis Rodriguez (IF), Chris Heintz (C), Kevin West (OF), Doug Deeds (OF), Felix Molina (IF)

Obviously, the bottom of the order is the weakest point, and the excess pitchers could leveraged to acquire a better centerfielder or second baseman.

SP- Johan Santana
SP- Fransisco Liriano
SP- Boof Bonser
SP- Matt Garza
SP- Scott Baker
CL- Pat Neshek
RP- Jesse Crain
RP- J.D. Durbin
RP- Matt Guerrier
RP- Justin Jones
RP- Beau Kemp

2010: An Outdoor Odyssey

One of my first reactions to the approval of an outdoor baseball stadium in Minnesota was the pressure it takes off of the Twins front office in the short term. As long as a stadium hung in the balance, Terry Ryan had an added pressure to make it seem like the team could sustain contention and playoff appearances to make a new stadium worth it to the state. It seemed that every time the team had a losing streak, they lost momentum towards passing a stadium bill, and winning four or five games at home would get the ball rolling once again. Surprisingly enough, the team finally got approval around the time that they started sliding into mediocrity, hovering five games under .500 in a division with two of the best teams in baseball. That sort of fortuitous timing can let Ryan get out of the win-now mentality that has led to mistakes like Tony Batista and Rondell White and start working in the direction of the next contending team. Players like Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel have more to gain by playing every day at the major league level than repeating AAA time and again. Additionally, the organization does not have to spend money on older free agents, especially in the form of multiyear commitments, which gives them more flexibility in the future. The Twins used to talk about five year cycles of contending and rebuilding, but with some smart personnel moves now, the team can be back near the top of the division by 2010, just in time for the new stadium, even without an exorbitant increase in spending. Position by position, the Twins have viable options at every position for the next few years within the system. By working them into the lineup now, they can get a better idea of who is a long term solution and who is part of the problem.

At catcher, Joe Mauer is obviously the short and long term solution. He is already one of the top catchers in the game and profiles to peak around the time the new stadium opens. The only pending concern revolves around the possibility of leaving him behind the plate for much longer than six or seven major league seasons, as even many of the best catchers in baseball history have moved out to the field to preserve their health. Mauer has value as a third baseman due to his bat, but he is not the Mike Piazza type of catcher whose glove is a hindrance. In fact, his glove makes him one of the best defensive catchers in the league, and the organization’s focus on fielding cements his status as a catcher for as long as his knees allow.

Justin Morneau may have his drawbacks, but his strengths provide plenty of value for the team, especially if he makes improvements up to his peak years. His strikeout rate is too high, but he hits homeruns, and the new stadium’s short right field line plays into swing. Remember that Safeco field was built as a pitcher’s park with a short right field line for Ken Griffey Jr., but he was gone before the team ever played a game in the stadium. It is hard to project for the rest of this season, let alone five years into the future, so keep in mind that any one of these players could suffer a career ending injury or have some other career altering occurrence in the meantime. Ideally speaking, though, Morneau fits into the team’s long term plan, especially with a slowly improving glove at first base and a minor league record that hints at better hitting to come. Unfortunately, the team does not have many options at first, considering that the next best alternative, Garret Jones, currently has a .664 OPS at AAA and does not have quite so many years to catch up with the competition. Eric Lis deserves some consideration, but he is still all the way down in low-A Beloit. On the bright side, he had an OPS above .900 last season and is over 1.000 so far this year, and he improved his K:BB rate from 4:1 last year to better than 1:1 this year. He is not considered one of the top prospects in the system, but his stats so far do not disqualify him from succeeding in the future.

The entire organization has a shortage of middle infielders. After Jason Bartlett- who should be in the majors at this point anyway- there is a big drop off in the quality of the prospects. Ryan seems to have recognized the problem, picking up a second baseman with a high ceiling in the J.C. Romero trade. The Angels were dealing from a position of strength with Kendrick and Aybar at second, so Alexi Casilla was expendable. Casilla certainly has more upside than Romero, but may wash out before ever making the majors.

He has been the most productive regular for high-A Fort Meyers, but that is not saying much, since he has only posted a .286/.321/.382 line so far this season. Even with a good glove, he needs to improve either his patience or his power to become a viable major league possibility. Felix Molina is another possibility with six HRs and a walk every ten plate appearances at AA New Britain. Consider the possibility of a position shift for Gilbert Velazquez, the shortstop who has put together solid batting stats in very limited playing time between AA and AAA. Do not be surprised if the Twins address this shortcoming through the draft in the next couple of years. Altogether, Luis Castillo does not have much left, certainly not enough to start when the Twins enter their new stadium, and the minor leagues do not offer a clear alternative.

Third base is a position where the Twins have more of a clear future. If the front office has even a modicum of reasonability, we will probably see Tony Batista out of the lineup before the end of the season with Terry Tiffee or Luis Rodriguez taking over before the end of the year. Tiffee is not hitting for the power we would expect at AAA, but he will not be any worse than Batista, and Rodriguez has at least showed a decent glove in his starts at the hot corner. None of these players has a future beyond the bench, though, as Matt Moses is one of the team’s top position prospects, currently honing his glove work at short in AA. Moses probably does not have the glove for short, but he certainly has the bat for third, currently slugging .467 and projecting as a major league slugger in a few years. He may not reach his peak by 2010, but do not be surprised if he gets substantial playing time by 2008, and entrenches himself as the franchise third baseman not long after that. Third base is a position of concern right now, but not in the long term.

Shortstop is a horse I have beat to death. Jason Bartlett is better at the plate and in the field than Juan Castro today. He is slugging .470 in AAA, and even if that only translates to something like .420-.430 in the majors, that would make him an exceptional shortstop with the glove he flashes in the field. Few teams have young shortstops with as much ability and upside, and even several contenders would be happy to plug Bartlett into the starting lineup today- Boston? Houston? Detroit once Guillen goes down? As long as the team is not contending anyway, not playing Bartlett is not going to kill them, but it hints at Gardy’s dislike for Bartlett, which could become a real problem once the team needs him to get over the hump.

Next time, I will continue looking at some possibilities for the Twins as they rebuild their lineup into contention.