Rank Me Like a Hurricane

With many rankings still ahead, I’ll keep the narrative brief today, but there are two updates I need to pass along.

1) I have been sufficiently convinced that Tony Batista will start ahead of Mike Cuddyer at third base and will change the standings accordingly. I’m putting Batista in last, moving everyone else up one game and leaving the overall standings looking like this:
Detroit: 25-11Cleveland: 22-14
Twins: 17-19Chicago: 16-20Kansas City: 10-26

This thought experiment will culminate today with rankings of each starting pitcher, closer and bullpen. I’m not even going to attempt to rank benches or managers due to uncertainty, tiny sample sizes and intangible benefits, but feel free to speculate on the effect those departments might contriubte.

2) Tomorrow morning I wake up bright and early to head west for a spring break trip to the Cactus League. I’ll see at least five games in under a week, possibly including the U.S.-Mexico WBC game at the former BOB. During the trip, I’ll be on mini-hiatus from the blog, possibly posting notes here and there, but without any full-blown columns. Upon my return I hope to put together some highlights from the trip to relay my experiences and test my greeny-green scouting chops.

Anyway, onward to the pitching rankings. “Less comments, more rankings” is the motto of the day.

#1 SP

1. Johan Santana- It would be silly to confuse this ranking with homerism as Johan projects as the best pitcher in all of baseball this season both in terms of VORP and WXRL. I’m only disappointed that Dayn Perry did not include him or Joe Mauer on his list of the 10 most valuable commodities in baseball in his recent BP chat session, even though Jake Peavy and Roy Halladay made the list.

2. Mark Buerhle- I’m high on Buehrle; I think he’s just a tiny cut below the absolute cream of the pitching crop, but still a valuable piece as a lefty who eats tons of innings.

3. Cliff Lee- He doesn’t seem like a no. 1 guy, but what Cleveland lacks in ace-status they make up for in depth (as you’ll see in the rankings for nos. 4-5). By the way, I’m sticking to the mlb.com pitching depth charts rather than arbitrarily assigning positions.

4. Kenny Rogers- There seems to be a handedness theme going here, but Rogers does not share the rest of the group’s youth. The grey in his beard is code for injury and attrition danger, pushing him down the list.

5. Runelvys Hernandez- How mlb.com decided to rank a guy no. 1 coming off of arm trouble and a 5.56 ERA, 88-70 K/BB season, I will never know. Even Greinke would probably land at the bottom of this list, but he’d at least challenge Rogers.

#2 SP

1. Freddy Garcia- He no longer gets the buzz, but lining up his projection next to Josh Beckett’s makes them look pretty even. What Garcia gives up in RA, he gets back in IP and doesn’t run nearly the same injury risk.

2. C.C. Sabathia- Either Radke, Bonderman or Sabathia could fall here, but Sabathia has a durable body type, a decently consistent track record and projects to .9 more wins than Radke and .6 more than Bonderman by WXRL.

3. Jeremy Bonderman- He has a very high ceiling and 23 seems like a good age to start showing some progress. Between Santana, Buehrle, Bonderman, Sabathia and Garland, this division has lots of solid pitching age 27 or younger.

4. Brad Radke- Used to be one of the better pitchers in the division, but his regression and shoulder trouble are not markers of a big season to come. I’m surprised more Twins fans don’t talk about the potential of losing him for a long time, which is a very real one.

5. Scott Elarton- Still no Greinke? I’m going to vociferously disagree with mlb.com’s rotational projections, but keep slotting them in at no. 5.

#3 SP

1. Javier Vazquez- I rank him slightly ahead of Garcia overall, which should explain why he tops this list.

2. Carlos Silva- Another very close race from 2-5, but Silva, Byrd, Greinke and Maroth all project to an EqERA above 4.00 and Silva has the combination of youth and a strong 2005. PECOTA grounds its pessimism in a belief that his BB rate will nearly triple, a skepticism I’m not so ready to buy.

3. Paul Byrd- One way or another, Byrd and Jason Johnson have to fill the production of Millwood and an overachieving Elarton from last year’s Cleveland rotation. Since Byrd seems due for an injury, I think this is one place to be worried about regression for the Indians. Still, Byrd is a talented no. 3.

4. Zack Greinke- I like his upside, but he might be a case of over-hyping a good pitcher. Even if he tops out as a strong mid-rotation guy, he’s an asset to a team without young and cheap pitchers. I’d rank him higher if he hadn’t been so dismal last year, even though I think there is a strong chance at a rebound.

5. Mike Maroth- Another in the lefty-heavy division, Maroth may never shed the 20-game loser label among casual fans, but he can be an above-average starter, which is worthwhile in itself.

#4 SP

1. Jake Westbrook- His top comp is Kevin Brown, he’s 28 years old, he’s had a run of good performance and he probably deserves to rank higher than several of the guys in the last two categories.

2. Jose Contreras- A strong postseason made him seem like an ace, but he’s at least 34 years old (I’ll buy it, but it’s still not good news), and has had a very strange career path. He could very well blow Westbrook away, but I’ll take the certainty at this level.

3. Nate Robertson- I think there is a large drop from 2-3 although Robertson is not a scrub. Excluding the Royals, there has yet to be a true weak spot in any team’s rotation.

4. Kyle Lohse- Throughout baseball history, there must be hundreds of guys who seem like they should be so much better than they are with some sort of mental block appearing to be the problem. The frequency of the occurrence makes it a predictable career arc, and Lohse fits squarely on it, making his continued mediocrity unsurprising- but no less frustrating.

5. Mark Redman- A few years ago he looked like an eventual front-line guy for the Twins. It seemed very dumb to trade him for a couple months of a washed up Todd Jones for the 2001 pennant race, but look how these things work out. Now, Jones is the one signing a lucrative multi-year free agent deal while Redman is trying to work his way back to respectability.

#5 SP

1. John Garland- Like I promised, the rotational depth of Cleveland and Chicago plays out in the end. In both cases, the high end is not that high, but the low end is pretty solid, which serves to keep them in most games.

2. Jason Johnson- Although he’d rank much lower if his dialysis machine violates the new doping policy. (A joke)

3. Justin Verlander- He and Baker project as part time starters, complicating their numbers. Verlander could easily surpass Johnson, or even Garland, but I’ll take the modest expectation, and I’d rather have him than Baker this year and for his career (although Liriano would be better if on the list). Plus, I wanted to continue my little chain of alliteration.

4. Scott Baker- I used to get excited about Baker. Now, he seems like another mid-rotation starter who will help the Twins, but in a pretty vanilla way. We’re spoiled with gimmicky pitchers, like Silva with his miniscule BB rate and Johan’s K’s, but the world needs ditch diggers too.

5. Jeremy Affeldt- He’s still a starter? I don’t think mlb.com knows, either, since they have KC projected to go with an 8-man rotation. Doesn’t much matter since Joe Mays would easily rank 5th as well.

Closer

1. Joe Nathan- Maybe one could argue on behalf of Bobby Jenks here, but Nathan has been very solid for two straight years. Bobby Jenks was in and out of baseball with serious injuries during that time, so Nathan’s high fly-ball rate does not fatally wound his chances to top this ranking at a slightly thinner position.

2. Bobby Jenks- …but he is still filthy. The bionic elbow is worrisome, as is the violent delivery, but Ozzie knows how to leverage his bullpen and having Jenks as the relief ace is more comforting to Southsiders than the Shingo Takatsus and Dustin Hermansons of the world.

3. Bob Wickman- Not terrible, but it says something about the value of save totals when your GM tries to replace you with a 38 year old after a 45 saves season. I’m holding it against Wickman that he played an instrumental role in beating my fantasy team in the championship round last year. He’s also ugly (I’m not vengeful, I swear).

4. Todd Jones- I’m not a fan, and you could put Mike MacDougal here, but it just seems so comfortable to know you can always find the Royals right at the bottom of the list.

5. Mike MacDougal- Yup, bottom of the list. If the image of the closer was a control pitcher who uses deception rather than power, MacDougal would absolutely be out of a job and the Royals might be better off for it.

Bullpen at large

1. Minnesota- I though long and hard about this ranking because Cleveland and Chicago have to be considered the favorites. Still, I’ll defend this ranking defiantly since there is a better chance that the Twins effectively leverage Liriano in the Earl Weaver role than there is of Chicago using McCarthy as such. Plus, any attrition in Jesse Crain should be offset by the increased innings for Rincon and Liriano. Gardenhire also knows how to use his best guys at crucial moments, a skill which should not be ignored.

2. Chicago- Cotts, Hermanson and Politte should be solid, and Ozzie will find others if they are not. They do a good job making the bullpen fungible and flexible, the value of which was clear in the playoffs. I’m keeping them out of first because they seem to top out at very good with little room for improvement.

3. Cleveland- Last year’s best bullpen should fall back substantially with the losses of Dave Risky, Bob Howry and Arthur Rhodes. I’d listen to arguments for ranking them higher, but they, too, seem content with a cheap and decent bullpen for this year- and that may be a very good use of resources.

4. Detroit- Unproven, but with lots of live arms. They could surprise and be the cream of the crop, but I’m taking a wait and see approach.

5. Kansas City- Ahh, why not? They really are not that bad here with Burgos and Sisco continuing to develop out of the pen, but the ranking is in earnest. Think of it as a 5th place ranking rather than a last place.

Pitching Rankings:

Chicago: 24-4
Twins: 18-10
Cleveland: 18-10
Detroit: 9-19
Kansas City: 1-27

Final Cumulative Rankings:

Chicago: 40-24
Cleveland: 40-24
Twins: 35-29
Detroit: 34-30
Kansas City: 11-53

Okay, so KC will probably be a little better than that. But the rankings and relative distance smells right, so I’m satisfied with the experiment. Talk to you all in a week or so.

More Positional Hijinx

Since I have chosen not to recap the AL Central position-by-position rankings, I have sacrificed the ability to defend or criticize my own picks. Thus, ridiculous-sounding rankings like Mike Cuddyer as the best third baseman in the division pass through without caveat, even though the rest of those on the hot corner are even worse. As Twins fans, we’re familiar with Cuddyer’s disappointing developmental path which often overshadows the strengths he has. He’s fragile, a bad defender and inconsistent on offense, but anyone who can hold down third while approaching an .800 OPS is not such bad shakes. Plus, he’s young enough to improve from here. On the dark side, the official Twins website leads off with a story about the offensive boost the team can expect from Tony Batista. Since mlb.com has pretty reliable depth charts, I won’t fault you for slotting Batista in at third and bumping the Twins down to fourth in the 3B rankings between Mark Teahen and Aaron Boone (hey, at least Batista can catch). With that uncertainty in mind, it’s onward with OF/DH rankings.

Left Field

1. Jason Michaels- He played part of a platoon very successfully in Philadelphia last year and got traded to Cleveland to replace Coco Crisp after being shopped all winter to those nominal contenders lacking a CF (NY, BOS, CHC). He will not be a star, but neither will the rest of this crop.

2. Craig Monroe- I get the feeling that people see Detroit’s climb out of the depths of their sub-replacement level season as a result of big name free agent acquisitions like Rondell White, Pudge Rodriguez, Jason Johnson, Magglio Ordonez, Troy Percival, Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers. In reality, under-the-radar players like Monroe, Chris Shelton and Brandon Inge have done more to overcome that fate.

3. Scott Podsednik- I’m fudging the PECOTA rankings a bit because Podsednik’s defense is clearly more valuable than his offense and gets overlooked by some performance analysts. Yes, he’s brutal offensively- enough so to easily rank below little-known veterans like Monroe and Michaels-, but if his BA recovers, he’s not so bad.

4. Shannon Stewart- As Twins fans, we recognize Stewart’s decline, but I think we still romanticize his brief brush with stardom. He’s no longer an asset, and he’s probably going to become a noticeable liability this year.

5. Emil Brown- Among the Royals problems, he is not the one who will do the most damage. He’s a 31 year old journeyman who had a good season, but these the type of player who can be a 4th OF on a champion, not the top run producer.

Center Field

1. Grady Sizemore- Forget the AL Central, Sizemore should give Carlos Beltran a run for best CF in the game. He plays great defense, runs well, hits for power, has some patience- toolsy enough for scouts, and enough numbers for analysts.

2. David DeJesus- Even though I just called Emil Brown KC’s best run producer, DeJesus should easily assume that mantle this year, assuming injuries keep Mike Sweeney off that list again. As Beltran’s replacement, DeJesus had high expectations and let down. This year, he projects to a strong 27.8 VORP.

3. Curtis Granderson- Here’s another one of those crucial positional battles. Nook Logan’s nickname does not compensate for the 26 run deficit in VORP. He might strike out a bit much for the prototypical CF, but his power numbers more than make up for it.

4. Torii Hunter- I know nobody wants to see Hunter below unproven players, but Hunter is getting old, which compounds the problem of his ankle injury to impact him on offense and defense. If he has not already passed the torch to Mauer as the face of the team, the time is near.

5. Brian Anderson- No Aaron Rowand, but he’s not all that far behind Hunter in this race. Altogether, the CF in the division are better than the LF on Sizemore’s strength alone, but the depth goes 1-5.

Right Field

1. Magglio Ordonez- I’m giving him too much credit for avoiding injury and retaining skills from before his knees fell apart. Even though it defies explanation, I could not put Lew Ford on top of the list after his miserable 2005.

2. Lew Ford- PECOTA actually likes Ford as a candidate to rebound a little, and he has done a good job staying healthy the last couple of years. He gets bonus points for his ability to spot start in CF, but if you want a big arm in RF, he’s probably not the guy- not that Stewart could do any better.

3. Reggie Sanders- His projection gives him only 228 PAs, obscenely low for a system that does not predict catastrophic injuries. It is as if they expect him to retire mid-season or lose his job, even though .267/.323/.458 looks pretty good in the middle of the patty-cake Royal lineup.

4. Jermaine Dye- Fantasy owners somehow still think Dye is that 30-30 threat that made stops in Atlanta, KC and Oakland before a gruesome leg injury that effectively cost him multiple seasons. His HR power is subject to home-field park effects in the Cell and he has very few other skills.

5. Casey Blake- He contributed plenty to Cleveland’s missing the playoffs last year and could do the same this year if the team doesn’t find someone else to play RF. They did well to hide his bat in the IF while they could, but slotting him in at an OF corner exposes his weaknesses.

Designated Hitter

1. Travis Hafner- This ranking is an example of the failure of this particular ranking system. Hafner is one of the best offensive players in the division, more than doubling the projected output of any other DH, but the difference between him and 2-5 is the same as it is for Jason Michaels or Magglio Ordonez who have a relatively small advantage. Note that the Indians are in first or last in every category in this column.

2. Mike Sweeney- With Thome and White, he contributes to an injury-plagued bunch who DH because they have to. Of course he can hit, but his injury is a question of when, not if. He recently said that he does not regret signing with the Royals long term. Really? How good can the schools and community be? Also, quite a solid rebound for the Royals.

3. Jim Thome- As one of the most hyped players of the offseason, you would think Thome has a higher ceiling, but he’s another injury waiting to happen. Also, keep in mind that he didn’t hit last year when he was able to make it to the plate.

4. Dmitri Young- I’m not high on slow singles hitters who lack patience, especially as they get older, but Young has a little power.

5. Rondell White- Maybe it is disappointing that he ranks at the bottom, but Lecroy or their other alternatives would perform even worse, if not rank lower. I don’t know how far into the future PECOTA extends, but with Lou Piniella and Bob Watson on his top-comps list, White stands as good a chance as anyone at gaining employment in baseball once his playing career ends.

OF-DH ranking Records

Cleveland: 12-4
Detroit: 10-6
Kansas City: 8-8
Twins: 5-11
Chicago: 5-11

Overall Standings (Through nine categories)

Detroit: 24-12
Twins: 21-15
Cleveland: 21-15
Chicago: 15-21
Kansas City: 9-27

Gratuitous Mis-Valuation

Steven Goldman, a blogger who writes for the official YES network website, recently ran an ingenious series where he ranked starters at each position for each team, counting finishing ahead of another team as a win and vice versa. In other words, if a team plays in a five team division and has the second best second baseman, it would go 3-1 in rankings for second base. Setting aside the problem of ignoring complementary skills and team chemistry, the system fails to account for how much better or worse a player is at a certain position. For example, if Albert Pujols ranks as the best first baseman in the NL Central, ranking him ahead of Mike Lamb is worth the same win as ranking him ahead of Derek Lee when the team actually gets much less value out of the second “win.” The results do not look so bad, as the AL East descends as one would predict: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, D-Rays with believable records, if a little bit more polarized than real ones.

Always one to ape a good idea, I decided to perform the same analysis for the AL Central. Given the multiplicity of positions, it could take a while, but I will get started today by ranking players roughly by their PECOTA projections, adjusting for likelihood of injury, likelihood of sustaining playing time and other impressions the projections may not encompass. I will also post cumulative records at the end of each edition of the column.

Catcher

1. Joe Mauer- Baseball Prospectus referred to Mauer as one of the ten most valuable commodities in baseball for the next ten years, which may be reasonable whether he stays at catcher or not. He’s young enough that his power will continue to develop, but he’s good enough that it does not have to develop for him to be valuable.

2. Victor Martinez- After a slow start in 2005, I remember reading that Martinez has a dangerous profile that is susceptible to big swings in production and early decline. He’s only 27 and he plays decent defense so it is not about time for that to start. Even among catchers, Martinez has an exceptionally low speed score, which could come back to hurt him later.

3. Ivan Rodriguez- PECOTA sees a rebound from his vanishing BB totals last year, which better happen since his BA will do less and less to buoy his OBP as he gets older.

4. A.J. Pierzynski- I also liked A.J. as a Twin, but he slipped big time when he ended up playing for the rivals from the Southside. Then he completely redeemed himself by making Steve Perry the face of the team and doing a stint as a pro wrestling escort.

5. John Buck- The Royals are not going to win a lot of these positions. Buck is a symptom of an inept front office, not the disease itself.

First Base

1. Paul Konerko- I have said many times that I am not high on Konerko’s contract, but that does not mean I think he does not have value at present. He will hit plenty of HRs in the Cell, and they’re plenty valuable.

2. Justin Morneau- I have my doubts about just how much Morneau can grow in one season. It is one thing to rebound to a previously established level of performance; it is quite another to make that growth for the first time after regressing. Still, he’s second best.

3. Chris Shelton/Carlos Pena- Shelton is a lot better than Pena and represents one of the little decisions on Jim Leyland’s plate that could be the difference between another bad year and borderline contention. Either way, they’re firmly entrenched in third place.

4. Ben Broussard- If you’ve started wondering where some of the better hitters have gone, I’m doing another category for the DH. Here is another example of where a team could improve by going younger; Mike Aubrey is a prime prospect and would provide better performance at a lower cost.

5. Doug Mientkiewicz- It will be more fun to watch him flail from a distance. KC is 0-2 in staying out of the basement.

Second Base

1. Placido Polanco- It might surprise that an older player who has never had a regular job places this well, but Polanco has a solid all-around skill set and hit well after he got to Detroit. Even though he’s already 30, he easily outdistances the competition in VORP.

2. Luis Castillo- The Twins big offseason upgrade does not fix their problem of hitting for power, but he keeps them out of the basement on this list.

3. Tadahito Iguchi- Almost without exception, Japanese players have either been good or bad off of the bat and progressed accordingly. Hideki Matsui, Ichiro and Hideo Nomo started well and remained productive as one would expect. Hideki Irabu and Kaz Matsui were never productive. Iguchi started well and last year’s performance is a fair benchmark.

4. Ronny Belliard- Last year it looked as if the Tribe would cut bait on Belliard and go younger, but they got a good deal on the journeyman and decided to give it another year. He’s slated for a decline, but only to the realm of the league average second baseman.

5. Mark Grudzielanek- He is not nearly as relatively awful as the other Royals so far, but it does not matter.

Third Base

1. Mike Cuddyer- The fact that a player who has to fight for his own starting job ranks as the best player at his position in the division says a lot about the position. The fact that Tony Batista might not be the worst either says even more.

2. Brandon Inge- He has more value as a fantasy catcher, but he plays exceptional corner defense and hits for a little power.

3. Joe Crede- Maybe it comes from late-season heroics, but I keep wanting to rank Crede higher than is reasonable. He probably will not have a tremendous breakout, and Kenny Williams will probably keep his eyes open for a better option.

4. Mark Teahen- I’ll be honest, I had written in Aaron Boone without looking at Teahen’s projection, but upon further review, Teahen is scheduled to close off some of his tremendous room for improvement by hitting a handful of XBHs.

5. Aaron Boone- You can move the Indians up to the number one position as soon as they abandon Boone’s character for Andy Marte’s skill. Even if they make the tradeoff at midseason, Marte may make up all of the ground on Cuddyer and Inge.

Shortstop

1. Jhonny Peralta- He’s young and he does lots of things very well, especially hitting for power. Also, bonus points for misspelling your own name in a completely non-phonetic way.

2. Carlos Guillen- The ability to hit and field is present, but the ability to stay healthy is a skill in itself, and one Guillen severely lacks. With Omar Infante behind him and Polanco, the Tigers will have plenty of time to rest Guillen, but the question is whether a little rest will be enough to keep him up to his high standards, especially at such a demanding position.

3. Jason Bartlett- Again, I’m not holding it against him that he has yet to win the job outright. Bartlett has a lower playing time projection than many of those around him, but projects to a similar VORP, and he gets extra credit for his underrated glove.

4. Juan Uribe- Sure, he doesn’t hit for average or draw walks, but a shortstop with as much range as Uribe can get by with one offensive skill, and his power hitting does just that. He plays in the right home park to squeeze every bit of value out of that skill, as well.

5. Angel Berroa- Even a former Rookie of the Year cannot salvage the Royals start. He’s no Pat Listach, but along with Bob Hamelin, the Royals do not have much a recent track record for ROYs. Even though they compete with the Twins, here’s hoping the Royals do not actually start 1-19.

Standings through 5 IF positions

Twins: 16-4 (phenomenal start considering position players are the weakness)
Detroit: 14-6
Chicago: 10-10
Cleveland: 9-11
Royals: 1-19

Faster than a Speeding Bullet, More Powerful than a Locomotive

The debate about fast runners versus power hitters is not really a relevant one since both skills provide ways to win and it is relatively simple to quantify each group’s skills. If you still have your doubts about the value of power hitters, consider that last year saw Adam Dunn hit .247 while accumulating 45.0 runs of VORP, whereas positional peer Scott Podsednik- the poster boy of speed thrills baseball- managed a .290 BA and 59 SBs which yielded only 5.8 runs of VORP. In other words, Dunn was more than seven times more productive that Podsednik at the plate. Peripheral stats, such as Podsednik’s zero HRs (which, if you had forgotten, score runs with great efficiency) and 47 BBs held down his offensive value. His defense certainly helps, but even the disruption effect is overrated, as a recent study demonstrated that hitters do not fare appreciably better with fast runners on base compared to slow ones.

So what is the point? The point is that we can compare whole teams based on this same principle: speed versus power. Maybe my desire to put together All-something teams goes back to the days when I would fantasy rosters for no league or purpose in particular. Maybe it is a reflection of my not-so-latent desire to run a baseball team. Either way, I have been writing lots of columns constructing teams recently, and I’m thoroughly enjoying it. For this comparison, I’m taking the highest PECOTA projections of SB+3B for the speed team and the highest HR projections for the power team.

Speed Team

C- Joe Mauer (9 SB, 3 3B): Despite concerns about his knees, he narrowly beats out Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez, keeping speedy catcher dominance in the AL. Mauer also has the highest speed score (a measure that standardizes SB, SB%, DP rate, 3B and R to a score from 0-10 with an average of 5) among catchers. At 5.5, he beats out Pudge’s 5.2, the only other above-average catcher score.

1B- Albert Pujols (13 SB, 2 3B): Maybe this matchup won’t be so lopsided now that the speed team has started its roster by nabbing a high-OBP C and the best hitter on the planet.

2B- Ryan Freel (28 SB, 3 3B): One would expect the speed to start ramping up at 2B, but other than Freel, Alfonso Soriano is the next best with only 18 SB. True, Freel can hardly hit, but once he gets on base he runs like he can’t wait to get back.

3B- Chone Figgins (40 SB, 8 3B): This race isn’t even close; Figgins more than doubles everyone’s SB totals and his 6.4 speed score is almost a full point better than A-Rod’s runner-up 5.5. Figgins even has nearly adequate OBP skills, projecting to a .334 OBP- not great, but in the same neighborhood of the Ryan Zimmermans and Mike Lowells of the world.

SS- Jose Reyes (57 SB, 9 3B): The race for second features B.J. Upton, Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal all within 2 SB+3B of one another, but the less productive Reyes dominates all of them to assume his rightful position as crappy leadoff hitter on the speed team. He also has the most SB+3B of anyone.

OF- Juan Pierre (49 SB, 7 3B): Pierre went from underrated in Colorado to overrated in Florida, a funny move for a hitter. But, Pierre is a funny hitter, and his world championship is partially responsible for the movement back towards speed and defense.

OF- Carl Crawford (45 SB, 10 3B): Crawford has a bit of power, a high BA, a solid glove and lots of perceived value. None of these measures up to his speed score of 7.6, though, which dwarfs even Jose Reyes’ 7.0.

OF- Scott Podsednik (43 SB, 4 3B): If you are surprised that Sir Speedy himself only projects to 4 3B, think of a triple as a double for a fast player. Podsednik has so little power that he does not have many chances to turn two baggers into three, leaving him with a low projection.

Power Team

C- Jason Varitek (20 HR): I mentioned Varitek as a cautionary tale for teams signing nice guys to longer deals than they deserve. He still has enough value in the tank to out-homer some slap hitting backstops, but his PT and its quality are not about to get any better.

1B- David Ortiz (43 HR): Texeira, Howard and Pujols tied at 41 apiece, but Ortiz can slide into 1B since this team probably won’t focus much on defense anyway. Luckily, Fenway’s park effects vault him ahead of Pujols, who has the highest SLG, preventing Pujols from having to play against himself in this fantasy speed-power game.

2B- Alfonso Soriano (26 HR): Like Pujols, the Fonz almost made two appearances on the list. And yes, the projection is run for RFK rather than Ameriquest Field which makes the race with Jorge Cantu much closer.

3B- Alex Rodrigeuz (43 HR): The presence of the second best player may help offset Pujols’ presence on the other team. A-Rod brings to the table durability, speed and defense to go with his big stick, something that cannot be said of the three above him on this list.

SS- Miguel Tejada (25 HR): Tejada’s 5 HR lead on second place is pretty large in itself, but seems a lot larger when you consider second place is occupied by Juan Uribe. Along with Cantu, Howard and Troy Glaus, the second-place HR hitters are a lost riskier.

OF- Barry Bonds (48 HR): Nobody compares to Bonds, so it is hard to get a good reading on his progression, especially after the injury. I will say that leading the league in HR is a looooongshot for Bonds, as is his projected 642 PAs.

OF- Adam Dunn (41 HR): Even though Dunn will play most 1B, he has a LF projection based on the last couple of seasons out there. He’s huge and uses it to his advantage, typifying the player whose value comes primarily by way of the HR.

OF- Manny Ramriez- Manny joins A-Rod and Tejada on this team as players who have no glaring weaknesses at the plate. Bonds’ durability and Papi’s platoon splits make them seem less like pure hitters, but all of these guys would be solid in any hitting environment.

There you have it. It jumps out that the speed-defense stereotype certainly holds true in this comparison, since the first team plays far better defense than the second. In fact, a team with the Fonz and Manny next to Dunn in the OF could be very terrible. Still, it would be hard to imagine the speed team beating out the power team over the long-haul given the abundance of excellent overall hitters who also have HR power.

Top 10 Free Agents Revisited

If you’re like me, you rely heavily on the hot stove to keep you warm through the winter. Then you might remember a piece I did shortly after the World Series on the top 10 free agents of the 2005-2006 offseason. Aside from nailing Paul Konerko’s contract on the head at 5 years, $60 million with the Sox (which I’m going to mention approximately 482,359 more times), I attempted to pin down the value of nine other big name latter day Curt Floods. Looking back, my top seven were all within the top eight of salary received, with my bottom three (Piazza, R. Hernandez, Garciaparra) taking shorter deals that limited the overall value and losing out to Hideki Matsui (4), Jarrod Washburn (9) and Brian Giles (10) in the overall buxxxxxx sweepstakes. How did the others fare and what can we expect them to give their new teams in the new season? Those are precisely the questions I will try to answer in the next 1500 or so words.

1. Paul Konerko, actual contract- CHA 5/60, projected contract- CHA 5/60 (there it is again, 482,358 to come): Market value for a first baseman? In my last entry I commented on Adam Dunn’s 2 year extension with a third year team option. As a much better player than Konerko who is still in his prime, Dunn will make $7.5 mil this year and about $12 mil next year. Even in the option year, he makes about the same amount as Konerko will make on average over the life of his contract. Like the BoSox with Jason Varitek last year, Chicago will point out that Konerko’s leadership and community presence justifies his extra pay. But Kenny Williams might be able to learn something from the other Sox mistake with Varitek entering the second year of a five year deal with his skills and durability already fading considerably (4.7 projected VORP down from 6.5 in 2004). Konerko might be fine this year and next, but he will be a boondoggle before too long. I know what you are thinking, and no, I do not mean to say he will be a Boy Scout neckerchief.

2. Kevin Millwood, actual contract- TEX 5/60, projected contract- TOR 3/27: At the other end of the spectrum, I probably didn’t miss further on anyone than I did on Millwood. To be fair, his deal is incentive laden, the 5th year only kicks in if he meets very high IP standards in years two, three and four, and the signing bonus gets paid out over 2011-2015 when the dollar could be worth, like 500,000 yen. I do not think it would be completely backward to think of the deal as a four year, $48 mil one. Millwood throws groundballs so Texas shouldn’t completely kill him, but it won’t help either. He won’t make the difference between playoffs and staying home, but if he has a couple good years left in him he could conceivably contribute on a contender featuring Texeira, Blalock, Wilkerson and young pitchers like Danks and Diamond.

3. A.J. Burnett, actual contract- TOR 5/55, projected contract- BAL 4/52: If I had known Millwood would end up in Texas, I probably would have slotted Burnett into Toronto. He has received a bad wrap, but I have already spent enough words defending Toronto’s offseason moves, mostly premised on the idea that they were better than their record last year while NY and BOS were worse than their records. Burnett projects to a sub-4.00 ERA this year and retains a better than 50-50 chance of being a “star” by PECOTA’s standards for the next two years before sliding considerably after that. It might be tough to change fate, but it is pitching coach Brad Arnsberg’s charge and GM J.P. Riccardi’s prayer that Burnett’s career arc not remain etched in stone. By the way, due to his age, I had him ranked as the no. 1 free agent going into the offseason.

4. Hideki Matsui, actual contract- NY 4/52, projected contract- NA: Most good players follow a salary structure where they are cheaper than market value by rule at first, transition into being cheaper (and more valuable) because they cannot negotiate on the open market, but only through arbitration, then become overpriced around age 28-31 when they run out of arbitration after accumulating solid stats, but having passed their most productive years. Matsui has been different, entering the league at 29 after a brilliant Japanese career and playing well enough for the Yankees to make his 3/21 contract a relative bargain. The Yankee Braintrust decided they couldn’t be content with getting value, so they decided to give him the same contract they gave to Johnny Damon even though he is already 32 and showed signs of decline last year. His Marginal VORP projection, which gives a dollar figure for his projected value, makes him worth $21 mil over the life of his contract, starting at $7 mil this year and deteriorating from there. Looks like another boondoggle.

5. Johnny Damon, actual contract- NY 4/52, projected contract- CHN 4/42: I was surprised the Cubs never really got in on the Damon discussion since they were hot to trot on every other player who gets too much credit for his speed and defense, even adding two of them in Pierre and Jones. I don’t have much more to add about Damon since he’s been overhyped to the hilt since he went from baseball Jesus to baseball Judas on the biggest stage imaginable. I will add that his projected MORP over the life of the deal is $25 mil, leaving $54 mil of overpayment for two aging OFs in NY, not to mention having to solve the Sheffield question sooner or later. Damon also stands about a 40% chance of dropping out of baseball by the final year of the deal.

6. B.J. Ryan, actual contract- TOR 5/47, projected contract- BAL 4/24: I really whiffed on this one since Ryan wasn’t even eligible to resign with those birds. I also assumed Wagner would take an early offer due to his age and injury concerns and set the market a bit lower in so doing. Instead, Ryan was the first big free agent off the board, arguably setting the stage for the winter’s unjustifiable spending spree. I am pretty optimistic about Ryan’s level of performance, the question remains how often he will get to show it. He has a violent motion and people who know about pitching injuries say he is due for one.

7. Billy Wagner, actual contract- NYN 4/43, projected contract- PHI 3/28: Maybe my projection was on the low side, since the yearly average he got does not surprise me that much. The more surprising move is that Omar Minaya brought in Wagner and LoDuca without noticing that neither is Latin American. At the time, I imagine Philly saw Ugeth Urbina as a possible closer from within, but then he went and lit people on fire, which I guess is illegal where he’s from. Instead they had to scramble to get Tom Gordon at too much cash for too many years and too much injury risk. Other than that move, Pat Gillick did a good job spending his first offseason making the team decent without making long-term mistakes. Let David Bell play out his last year and start over with a Howard-Utley-Victorino core.

8. Rafael Furcal, actual contract- LAD 3/30, projected contract- ATL 5/60: I gave Furcal a big number because he is relatively young and has skills that typically get paid more than their due. Ned Colletti proved me wrong and made his first big deal as a GM, nabbing Furcal for more money but fewer years, giving them his upside but clearing them if it turns out to be a mistake. MORP makes him worth over $30 mil over the life of the deal, and even if he remains a 6.2 win player like PECOTA sees for this year he will be a success story. The Dodgers want to get back in the playoffs and they have the market to overpay for wins if they are a relatively sure thing.

9. Jarrod Washburn, actual contract- SEA 4/37.5, projected contract- NA: I wrote about this deal recently, lampooning the lack of direction in Seattle’s front office. Sure, he’s an upgrade from the departed Ryan Frankling, and he slots in nicely after Felix and Moyer but before Pineiro and Meche. There is the concern that his peripherals cannot sustain the type of success he has had recently, but Safeco can mask some of those mistakes. More importantly, any team with this many holes does not need to spend a big chunk of cash to plug one that cannot overcome the others. Washburn will not get them into or near the postseason, especially in that division, so the money is just flushed down the drain.

10. Brian Giles, actual contract, SD 3/30, projected contract- NA: Giles was a very good deal for the most accomplished free agent to actually sign (76 career WARP). I can also see why SD would want to make one last push at the postseason before setting into rebuilding mode with Hoffman back and the offensive core of Klesko-Giles-Castilla-Cameron-Roberts-Piazza goes bad. But the team overachieved last year, and they legitimately downgraded at 2B and arguably C, so the prospects of improving are slim, and the rest of the division should be better. Suffice to say that I’m not picking the Pads to win the NL West, and I’m not so sure that this signing will look like a good idea in its 3rd year.

Hacktastic

Many baseball fans play fantasy baseball with the goal of weeding out the overlooked talent on Major League rosters. Important websites dedicate entire sections and specialists to the subject, while other groups publish popular magazines and books. All of the hype shares the common theme of trying to identify the best players. Conversely, Baseball Prospectus runs an annual reverse fantasy game where players compose a team of entirely terrible players. The scoring comes from deriving negative counting stats, so players have to remain in the lineup or in the rotation in order to continue accumulating points. Christian Guzman, for example, made the All-Star team for last year’s HACKING MASS league (a forced acronym for I forget what). Today I will construct a preseason HACKING MASS team of players who look to be regulars or semi-regulars (min 350 projected PAs) lopping runs off of their own teams’ box scores and snagging defeat from the jaws of victory. Keep in mind, HACKING MASS does not count defensive stats, making a Juan Castro all the more hacktastic.

C- Yadier Molina: I recently mentioned that another big offensive season may not be in the Cards for 2006, and Molina spending even more time behind and at the plate can only contribute to the misery. Mike Matheny may be a HACKING MASS Hall of Famer, and would probably make the team this year if he projected to make it to the plate enough, but the man who filled his tools of ignorance in Budville stands to slug .363 and accumulate a total of 1.6 runs of VORP.

1B- Darin Erstad: First base is a position usually reserved for offensive players. It is not a coincidence that eight of the fourteen projected starting DH’s in the AL have spent most of their gloved careers at the cold corner (the rest are OF, except for Javy Lopez in Baltimore). And although Darin Erstad stands to move back to CF this year, paving the way for a more horrendous offense and more injuries, PECOTA does not try to guess at position changes, instead making him a 1B. Lucky for Eric Hinske, whose 7.4 VORP is bad, but not nearly as bad as the -3.2 Erstad looks to manage. Comparing him to Yadier Molina, Erstad intuitively seems like the better hitter, but they actually project to nearly similar lines this season.

2B- Aaron Miles: It’s sad to say, but with Adam Kennedy making a run at 2B and Funky Ben Molina’s other brother Jose close in the running at C, the Cardinals and Angels have had five out of a possible six horses in the race so far (with the admirable exception of Albert Pujols). Walt Jocketty got credit for landing Miles and Larry Bigbie-Sellers for fragile lefty specialist Ray King, but this Miles is more All Blues and less Miles Ahead. It is hard to avoid picking a negative VORPist, and Miles’ fits that description even at second base. No wonder, since his equivalent stat line comes out to .263/.303/.356, an off year for Luis Rivas.

3B- David Bell: On my fantasy draft card, the word “NO” is written next to Bell’s name in capital letters. He is thought of as a wiley veteran, but he doesn’t (and hasn’t) done anything particularly well. His career OBP is an anemic .318 and he has slugged only .396 at a corner position. He’s been playing off of a decent 2002 (.261/.333/.429) for San Francisco for the last three years, and looks to continue benefiting from Philadelphia’s notorious cronyism.

SS- tie: Neifi Perez/Christian Guzman: In selecting a HACKING MASS team, how could one choose between the two players who have come to epitomize squandered playing time? The answer is, one can’t. So I’ll do the next dumbest thing to playing one of these two slugs and keep a no-hit backup shortstop on my roster. Seriously, though, is there a legitimate way to choose between Neifi’s .264/.296/.365 and Guzy’s .257/.299/.350. Both actually project to playing above replacement level, albeit by less than two runs. But they are projected to make it to the plate 899 times combined this season and manage exactly seven HRs and 43 BBs. Not good.

OF- Nook Logan: It is unclear whether Logan or Curtis Granderson will get most of the time in CF for Detroit this season. It is also possible that, at age 26, he will improve over the next few years. Those are the mitigating factors; Logan is still horrid. Center-field gets something of an offensive pass for being a defense first position, but a .321 park adjusted SLG still isn’t good enough. Actually, a .321 SLG isn’t even good enough for the last man off the bench, or even some pitchers. That would be roughly equivalent to having a league average hitter in the lineup, but having him bat against the 2004 version of Johan Santana every time up.

OF- Jacque Jones: Jacque’s 6.0 VORP stands out among those selected so far on the HACKING MASS team, but most of the extremely low VORP OFs provide some value by stealing bases or otherwise mounting some sort of contribution. Jones is now 31, his projected steals are down to 8 (net steals down to 4), and he stands almost no chance of ever improving again. He has a little bit of pop, but his lack of discipline and struggles against lefties will give Cubs fans the Corey Patterson headache all over again. With Guzman and Jones on the list and Doug Mientkiewicz making a run at Erstad, it is a wonder the Twins offenses were as passable as they were.

OF- Bernie Williams: Sure, most of his PAs will come as a DH. Sure, he’s due an excuse for being a 37 year old in the swan song of a borderline HOF career. Gussy it up however you want; that does not make Bernie any better of a player. He qualifies by projecting to 383 PAs as a CF, and by projecting to a lower Marginal Lineup Value Rate than Adam Stern (-.050 to -.038)

P- Aaron Sele: I have no idea which of the scrubs at the bottom of the ptichers’ list will play and which will not (Lima? Brazelton? Reuter? Can’t go wrong with any of ‘em). Sele is a solid pick, though, with a 6.30 eqERA projection buoyed by about 4 Ks and 3.5 BBs every nine IP. I, for one, would actually like to see him get a full season’s worth of work just to see how bad he can really be. That’s basically what KC did with Jose Lima last year, and didn’t we all enjoy that?

There you have it- the worst MLB team money can buy. Comically, several of the players, including Jones, Guzman, Bell and Erstad are actually signed to pretty fat contracts. But when you really think about it, aside from first base, this lineup isn’t all that different from the one the Cubs will trot out on opening day.

Rock Bottom!

A week after I proclaimed Adam Dunn a breakout prospect amid wide discussion that he had hit a plateau (from ESPN to Baseball Prospectus), new GM with Minny roots Wayne Krivsky awarded the slugger with a 2-year, $19.5 million extension. Considering Baltimore recently shelled out $2 million more than that to keep Jay Gibbons around for four years and that the Yankees are paying more 30% more each year for an aging slap hitter with limited power, Dunn’s deal looks like, well, a deal. Despite the statistical “revolution” of the last 20 years, players like Dunn do not get full credit for their abilities. Dunn gets panned for striking out a lot and having a low batting average, but he consistently posts high OBPs (even once reaching .400) and hits for lots of power. A low batting average can hurt if it means the player is making lots of outs and not being productive with the rest of his ABs, but Dunn produces more than 40 runs a year for his team. He’s no Rob Deer, either, as his tremendous power comes with lots of walks. Anyway, a good first move for the new GM- I give it a tip of the hat.

But the topic of today’s column deserves a wag of the finger: players who are poised for a huge decline in 2006. Lots of players project to have terrible seasons, but only a select few have the salaries, histories or manager blackmail to keep them in the lineup long enough to annihilate the team’s hopes. Take Christian Guzman’s 2005 season. Despite posting a MISERABLE -14.9 VORP, he managed 484 plate appearances because the team invested millions in him the previous offseason. In other words, he was lucky that Jim Bowden let him suck that badly. The 2006 collapse candidates have more diverse stories than that, but their common theme revolves around disastrous numbers.

Collapse Candidates

Kenny Rogers: After improbably increasing his VORP and WXRL across his 39-41 seasons, Rogers cashed in with a multi-year deal from the Tigers, who are especially keen on finding players who are over the hill. Rogers projects to a 4.87 ERA, which is not that terrible, but taken in context of the move from the Bandbox in Arlington to the Detroit cavern. His 5.56 park-independent Equivalent ERA looks much worse, and would be utterly disastrous were he still in Texas. Overall, I ranked him 123rd among starting pitchers in my initial pitcher rankings. But Rogers is not Detroit’s only recent free agent mishap, as this offseason also yielded Todd Jones (4.74 EqERA, 36% collapse rate), after last season’s Troy Percival (5.45 EqERA, 4.1 VORP) and Magglio Ordonez (12.8 VORP, 39% collapse rate) mistakes. Turning back the clock even further, Pudge Rodriguez arrived a year before that, leaving his discipline in the National League and projecting to 22 BBs and a .318 OBP this year, acceptable for a solid fielding catcher, but discouraging with his salary and a 39% collapse rate. The one recent signing that yielded market value- Rondell White- is now gone without having seen a winning season. They could have done that without paying him millions.

Scott Rolen: The Cardinals lost lots of offense at the OF corners, replacing Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders with Juan Encarnacion and Larry Bigbie-Sellers. One consolation for Cards fans is the return of Rolen to the hot corner, even though it was admirably managed by Abraham Nunez in his stead. No matter how well Nunez played, it must be better to get an All-Star like Rolen back, right? Well, yes, but not nearly far enough better to compensate for the lost offense. In addition to the massive re-injury risk to his persistently troublesome shoulder and his 42% collapse rate, he projects to only 16 HRs and a .270/.358/.475 line. Rolen probably won’t be bad, but like teammate Jim Edmonds, his previously stellar offensive level is probably a thing of the past. Albert Pujols is good enough to keep the offense afloat, but do not count on a team with loads of offensive stars.

Clint Barmes: Even though Ryan Howard won the NL Rookie of the Year, Barmes had the inside track until he injured himself while carrying a dead deer. All told, he put up 13.4 runs of VORP in only 374 plate appearances while struggling after returning from an injury. I’m sure the positive preseason spin in the Colorado press will deal with Barmes bouncing back from the injury and returning to his first-half form from 2005. PECOTA does not feel so confident, though, putting him at .267/.308/.409 for equivalent stat lines and only a 12.3 VORP over a full season of play. The decline in Marginal Lineup Value Rate from .013 to .004 looks small, but it represents a lost run of production roughly every 10 games. PECOTA’s skepticism doesn’t have to do with his injury so much as his inconsistent minor league record, where he struggled to get his eqOBP over .315 above the low minors. Maybe a “collapse” is not an appropriate description for the 27 year old, but the regression for someone entering his prime is not a good sign.

Breakout Stakeout

After looking at the Minnesota roster over the last week, it became clear that some of their most promising talents could be kept out of games by worse incumbents. But the PECOTAs extend beyond Minnesota players, and today I’m looking at some of the biggest breakout candidates for the upcoming season.

Breakout Candidates:

Adam Dunn- Former Twins’ guru Wayne Krivsky was named the new Reds’ GM today, and one of his greatest assets will be burly OF/1B Adam Dunn. While Dunn is not without his flaws- a huge strikeout rate, less than optimal speed and a middling batting average- he remains one of the darlings of the PECOTA system. Last year he projected to a 42.4 VORP with a 55.8% Breakout Rate and an astounding 86.5% Improvement Rate coming off of an already stellar 2004. His actual VORP of 54.5 reflects more playing time than PECOTA expected rather than different performance, but the system sees Dunn as a viable candidate to make more strides this year with a 24% Breakout Rate and a 64% Improvement Rate (that those stats stand out demonstrates how remarkable his 2005 projection was). There is an upside and a downside here, the downside is that Dunn’s incredible performance is wasted on a team with no shot at the playoffs due to a terrible pitching staff and offensive injury concerns. The upside is that Dunn, with 158 HR under his belt, is still only 26 and could contribute to several contenders if the Reds are able to right the ship under the new regime.

Hank Blalock- Analysts and Twins fans spent the offseason panning Blalock for his various faults, but perhaps this is one of those instances where his strengths outweigh his relative weaknesses. On the whole, he has a 32% BR and a strong 66% IR. Let’s break it down:
Fault 1: Blalock struggles away from Arlington with a .276 OBP and a .335 SLG on the road.
Solution: PECOTA thinks the home-road effects from which he suffered last year were overstated or an aberration. This year, he projects to an .860 EqOPS (adjusted for the home park effects).
Fault 2: Blalock cannot hit left-handed pitching, showing an even worse .583/.817 platoon split last season.
Solution: Blalock is only 25 years old, and young lefty hitters often struggle with lefty pitchers early in their careers. Eric Chavez is a pretty fair comparison- a lefty third-sacker facing the same pitching in the same division with early-career trouble with southpaws (actually his no. 2 comp). He brought his lefty OPS from .623 in 2002 to .749 last year (.893 in 2004). Lefties don’t have innate trouble against lefties; they can learn to hit, which is apparently part of Blalock’s projected future.
Fault 3: Blalock was playing in the majors by the time he was 21 and reached his peak already, leaving no room for improvement.
Solution: PECOTA seems to think there is room for improvement, and Faults 1-2 attest to that claim. As mentioned earlier, he’s projected with huge upset and almost no chance of regression (6% Collapse, 0% Attrition).

Jose Reyes- Breakouts come in all different forms. Dunn’s breakout would be something of a continuation of an exponentially upward-sloping career arc. Blalock’s would be more of a jump after a persistent stagnation. If Reyes’ broke out, it would adhere more closely to the traditional notion, a player with a high ceiling suddenly realizing that potential. The Mets have mishandled Reyes to much fanfare, rushing him to the Majors for PR purposes and refusing to cut their losses and send him to AAA for work on his plate discipline.

That said, fantasy owners won’t be surprised to remember that he ranks among the top 10 players in Yahoo’s fantasy baseball player rater. A .273 BA is acceptable, and 99 runs and 60 SBs are great qualities. Unlike with Blalcok, many of his faults have overwhelmed his strengths. If you are reading this blog, it is likely that you appreciate the value of a high OBP, especially in front of boppers like Carlos Beltran and David Wright, and Reyes only provided a .300 OBP last season. PECOTA thinks he has a chance to do a lot of that missed development all at once with a 32% BR and 60% IR. Even his weighted mean projection pegs him for a strong bump in OBP, up to .317 to go with an .011 point spike in his SLG (to .397). Neither stat is brilliant, but if Willie Randolph insists on batting Reyes at the top of the order, every little bit of improvement will help, especially with Carlos Delgado adding even more potency to the middle of the lineup. If the Mets are going to get past the Braves and Phillies to win the division, that offensive improvement needs to come through as runs scored, which requires base-runners, so this sunny projection is good news for Mets fans.

Bold Deceivers

After glancing at one possible ’06 Minnesota lineup last time around, I pledged to dedicate some inches to the team’s leading run preventers. Before we go headlong into the projections, I should make a note about the nature of the projections. Due to the likelihood of a long-term injury, every player’s weighted-mean projection has to come down a bit. Since pitchers make less total appearances than position players, projecting a few less starts is particularly noticeable, making it look like every pitcher is about to lose a bunch of endurance. Think of how an insurance company spreads the risk; everyone pays a little so that if something really bad happens, those individuals are covered. Likewise, pitchers won’t have 10% of separated shoulder or Tommy John surgery, but the nature of projection requires that everyone take a little bit of the risk for those who throw out their arms in the first week. Also, there are projections for more players than who will actually pitch. For example, J.D. Durbin is predicted to pitch 113 innings. Those could come at AAA or the majors, and we have no way of knowing. More simply, projection metrics are generally flawed, but using the best available data, here is a brief profile of how the 2006 pitching staff may shake out:

Johan Santana (2005, 2.87 ERA, 73.0 VORP; 2006 projection, 3.00 ERA, 62.0 VORP): Santana’s diminished VORP may look like bad news, but it is still the best projection for any pitcher in baseball. PECOTA’s final projections are weighted means, or the most likely end result rather than the high or low ends. Santana’s breakout and improvement rates indicate that he stands about a 50/50 chance of being at least as dominant as he was during last year’s Cy Young level performance. Let’s appreciate him while we can, because a power lefty like Johan comes around very infrequently.

Brad Radke (2005, 4.04 ERA, 31.9 VORP; 2006, 4.17 ERA, 26.4 VORP): Radke had a good-not-great 2005, but with a permanently ailing shoulder, I’m not sure we can ever expect much more from him. A replication of that performance would justify his presence behind Santana at the front of the rotation, but continued slippage to go with the unhealthy projection for Silva could be problematic. Any team faces the nightmarish scenario of losing one of its top pitchers to long-term or chronic injury, but with Liriano, Baker and the load of arms behind them, the Twins are better prepared for that occurrence than most.

Carlos Silva (2005, 3.44 ERA, 38.9 VORP; 2006, 4.47 ERA, 18.2 VORP): Maybe some would say that there is a thin line between groundball pitchers and batting practice and Carlos Silva rides a unicycle down the middle of it. Other than the late-season injury, everything went right for Silva in 2005 with little bits of good timing/luck/what-have-you patching over his shortcomings. Well, one shortcoming really, he lets hitters put a ton of balls in play. Still, his microscopic walk rate, low HR rate and high groundball/flyball ratio kept him in games. On top of all of that, he had one of the best double play rates in baseball, which depends on strong fielders behind him rather than his own ability. Shirking responsibility like that angers PECOTA by confounding results, and he is punished for his democratic tendencies with a fat run of ERA plopped down on his ’05 results. Obviously, his groundball and baserunner friendly style leads to a higher double play rate than average. But here’s an open question: what effect does playing on turf have on the likelihood of double plays? Does a speedier surface help runners or fielders more? If we accept Bill James’ statement that turf helps slow runners more than fast ones in its tendency to get more balls through the IF (because fast runners would have beaten out the throws anyway), it would seem that turf would do more for fielders, since they gain the advantage on the balls they actually field versus fast or slow runners.

It is also interesting to think about the makeup of the top of the Twins rotation. A few years ago when Santana was still emerging from the bullpen, Radke looked worn down and Silva was a reliever in Philadelphia, it would be hard to imagine that they would compose a dominant rotational top-three. The Twins front office often gets caught up in pretty meaningless strategic games like avoiding back-to-back lefties in the lineup or alternating power and control pitchers in the rotation. Partly by coincidence and partly by design, they have ended up with three very different pitchers who will likely start their first series of ’06. Santana is a power lefty in the Steve Carlton mold, throwing nasty breaking pitches to go with a tough heater. Radke has always struck out just enough to get by, but makes his money by getting ahead of hitters and making them swing at bad pitches. Silva, as mentioned, gives up piles of hits, strikes out no one, but throws EVERYTHING with downward movement, abusing the bottom halves of lots of AL Central bats. Together, they form an interesting control group that reiterates the maxim that there are many different ways to win. They also outline something of a blueprint, collectively demonstrating the value of not walking anyone. Sure, batters earn walks, but pitchers with this much control make it exceedingly difficult to get anything for free.

Now that I've written most of a column in the Carlos Silva section, I suppose I ought to return to the theme. Any guesses who is my favorite Twin?

Kyle Lohse (2005, 4.18 ERA, 30.7 VORP; 2006, 4.67 ERA, 14.1 VORP): Color me surprised that Lohse is back for another go-round with Gardy. If we had an office pool on when the two will come to blows, I’d be taking a date in early-mid May. I’ve said before that I think Lohse has a high ceiling, but PECOTA disagrees, seemingly saying that he topped out last year with an ERA around 4.00. He also has a 6% Breakout Rate and finds himself highly comparable to Paul Quantrill. Maybe there is more to his problems than some obscure mental hang-up; maybe Lohse is just a league average starter, and there isn’t anything wrong with that for $3 million a year.

Scott Baker (2005, 3.35 ERA, 13.7 VORP; 2006, 4.49 ERA, 16.8 VORP): I’m making a pretty big step in anointing Baker the fifth starter before pitchers and catchers have even reported, but given the team’s track record for preferring any experience, I feel confident that Liriano whittle away a year of pre-arb production in the pre-rotation Santana role. I feel especially confident considering that Ryan et al. like a traditionally constructed bullpen and they sent their only decent lefty on his way to the Angels of the Angels. This projection slates Baker for only 150 IP, and I would not be surprised if he ramped that up enough to push his VORP over 20 runs with no improvement in his projected performance.

Joe Nathan (2005, 2.70 ERA, 22.9 VORP; 2006, 2.64 ERA, 22.7 VORP): It took a couple of years, but PECOTA finally got hot for Joe Nathan. A few prognosticators used to bemoan his flyballs, but his 22.7 VORP and 31% Breakout Rate give him one of the highest ceilings of any relief ace in the league. I know it is hard to watch A.J. hoist the World Championship trophy, sing with Steve Perry and cut promos for TNA Wrestling, but that trade sure worked out well for the Twins.

Juan Rincon (2005, 2.45 ERA, 23.4 VORP; 2006, 3.54 ERA, 15.3 VORP): By VORP, Rincon was the best reliever on the team last year even with his 10 game respite. He’s a 50/50 bet to collapse this year, which is a testament to the unreliability of relief pitchers. Once again, the organizational depth of live arms makes a collapse less frightening, except in the case that it continues all year with Gardenhire unwilling to pull the plug on his locked-in 8th inning guy. With Santana, Silva, Castro and Rincon (and past Twins Blanco and Guzman), I think it would be fun to see the Venezuela team post a strong showing in the WBC as long as it doesn’t cost Santana his health.

Jesse Crain (2005, 2.49 ERA, 23.2 VORP; 2006, 4.06 ERA, 9.3 VORP): If there is one candidate for a big regression from last season on this staff, Jesse Crain is that candidate. Sample sizes make it difficult to evaluate relief pitchers on a season to season basis, making flukes more likely in the positive and negative directions. Crain did lots of work with smoke and mirrors last year, ranking near the top of the league in BABIP (BA on balls in play), an indication of good fortune. PECOTA doesn’t look kindly on those who are more lucky than good, pegging Crain with a painfully bad 72% collapse rate (to give some context, Armando Benitez is coming off of a strong year that ended with a catastrophic injury, and he has a 68% collapse rate).

Fransisco Liriano (2005, 5.70 ERA, 0.3 VORP; 2006, 3.87 ERA, 27.1 VORP): That’s quite a breakout for Liriano, assuming he gets that kind of playing time. What’s not to like? He’s set to miss lots of bats, striking out about eight batters per 9IP while giving up only about that many hits. He has good control and projects to have the same HR Rate as ground-baller Derek Lowe. Last fall, I thought it was optimistic to think he could be a bullpen regular in 2006. Now, I think the team’s playoff hopes may rest on him securing a rotation spot early on.

A recurring theme last year (and years before that) was the frustration of management slotting in players who had better backups behind them. This year’s slim championship chances could hinge on precisely that issue. The defense looks better than last year, but if the offense struggles against multiple sub-.300 OBP deadweights and the Lohse or Baker struggles through starts that could have gone to Liriano, we could have a whole new set of Luis Rivases and Joe Mayses to lament.