Power Rankings
Flags Fly Forever

5. New York Mets- Not surprisingly, lots of analysts say the Mets are the best team in the majors right now, but I have to disagree pretty strongly. They currently have the 8th most third-order wins, trailing a full seven AL teams, hinting at the tremendous disparity in competition. Like the Cardinals, they really do not have to do much to get into the playoffs, so they can already start thinking about the playoffs. With an old and fragile pitching staff, stretching out rest time for Pedro, Glavine and El Duque can only help them the rest of the way, since they can easily make the postseason by playing .500 ball the rest of the way. The offense is a mix of young and old players, but not to the extreme as we see in LA, where everyone seems to be either before or past his prime. In New York, there is a mix of players just coming into their best years- Wright, Reyes, Duaner Sanchez- and those leaving their best years- Delgado, LoDuca, Floyd, Wagner, Martinez, Glavine. Splitting the difference, Carlos Beltran has been the team’s best player with a stunning .606 SLG in one of his best seasons. Looking at players like Delgado and Wagner who have started showing signs of decline shows that Omar Minaya does not have years to waste in trying to bring home a championship with this core of players. He can continue building around Wright, Reyes, and Beltran for several more years, but should take his chances around Pedro, Glavine, Wagner, and Delgado right now. If he can get Barry Zito for Lastings Milledge, he should jump on the opportunity. If Dontrelle Willis is on the market, he should give up whatever the Marlins want out of the what is left of the Mets’ farm system to get him. Even Bobby Abreu and Alfonso Soriano make some sense for this team, and I would say picking up one of those players would help vault them ahead of everyone but the two AL Central powerhouses, which is where they need to be to have a great shot at the title. My one bit of advice for the Mets down the stretch is that flags fly forever, and winning the National League pennant is a fleeting memory if you cannot compete in the World Series. Just as your fans how they feel about the 2000 Subway Series.

4. Boston Red Sox- That does it for the National League, now for the 2002 NBA Western Conference. As much as I like Boston, they have not pulled away from a depleted New York team that stands to become very dangerous when their outfielders come back from the disabled list in the last month or two of the season. One concern here is the rotation. Schilling, Beckett, and Lester should hold down three of the spots for the rest of the season, but that does not solve the other 40% of the games. Ole Rubberarm Tim Wakefield is apparently not made entirely of rubber, now that he has gone to the DL with a broken rib. Filling in for him will be tough with Matt Clement and David Wells still injured themselves, and Lenny Dinardo, David Pauley, and Kyle Snyder all struggling with tremendous ineffectiveness. The depth, healthy or unhealthy, leaves Theo Epstein in a difficult situation leading up to the deadline. The team would certainly be better for now if they gave up a prospect or two for a starter to use down the stretch, but that starter may become expendable once the team gets their top six starters all healthy again. Is it worth it to pay for a replacement starter you will probably not even use in the playoffs? That is a tough question that would require a lot more specific analysis by the very smart Boston front office. The offense is not so confounding, as David Ortiz has bumped his batting average back where it belongs, around .270, joining Manny Ramirez at the top of the team leader board in most categories. Only Jason Varitek and Coco Crisp have been less than satisfying, but they will not go anywhere due to defensive and contractual concerns, so do not expect any big changes down the stretch. Alex Gonzalez has kept his OBP above .300 and his SLG above .400, making him worth his defense, so the possibility of going after Julio Lugo becomes unnecessary. Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Loretta, and Trot Nixon have all been better than expected, and give the Red Sox a chance at returning to glory this year. Maybe the biggest difference between this year and years past is at the back of the bullpen, where Jonathan Papelbon is having a year not terribly unlike Eric Gagne’s 2003, but with fewer strikeouts. He has remarkable control, misses plenty of bats, and does not make mistakes, all combining to keep his ERA well under 1.00. Just like Rivera has slammed the door to so many key playoff games for the Yankees over the years, Papelbon looks like the type of dominant reliever who can go two innings when necessary, bounce back on short rest, and scare the pants off of any opposing batter. The Red Sox have yet to lock up a playoff spot as the top of the AL grows closer together, though they remain a tremendously formidable opponent for any team who crosses them.

3. New York Yankees- The Yankees have been merely good, but not exceptional, with their roving band of rejects filling in the gaps behind what is left of the star-studded starting lineup. That they already have the most third order wins in the majors with so much money and talent on the DL or massively underperforming speaks to how terrfying this team could become. Jeter, Giambi, Posada, Damon, and A-Rod have all been very good, if the very best they could be, though Melky Cabrera, Miguel Cairo, Andy Phillips, Terrence Long, and Bubba Crosby have all failed provide even acceptable reinforcements when the old lineup shows its frailty. Getting Sheffield and Matsui back makes the league’s third best offense into one big wrecking-ball that will score enough runs to make any pitcher look good. And their staff is not chopped liver. They finally went back to going with what works rather than whomever has the biggest name. Chien-Ming Wang has had a very good year by never giving up homeruns to go with a resurgence from Mike Mussina in terms of strikeouts and limiting walks. Randy Johnson has looked better and better, starting to get his mechanics back into order and striking out batters as one might expect him to do. Even Jaret Wright has looked more like a major league pitcher lately, limiting homeruns, but giving up too many balls in play for the below-average defense that plays behind him. Mariano Rivera continues cementing his status as the best relief pitcher of all time, but they could stand to add one more good reliever or good starter down the stretch to cement the staff. Altogether, it might not matter how well they pitch for the rest of the regular season. The task is to get into the playoffs, and they have better players coming to them in August than any other team, and they get them for free.

2. Chicago White Sox- I have had some uncertainty about the top two spots. On one hand, the White Sox seem like a much safer bet than the Tigers, having performed at a high level for almost two full seasons rather than just a part of one. On the other hand, the Sox won last year without the requisite experience and generalizable data, and the Tigers have mimicked their pitching and defense mantra. Additionally, the Sox are not even a guarantee to make it into the playoffs this year. Here is what I think the Sox have going for them: the players on the team are performing well, but not as well as they could possibly perform, leaving some room for growth down the stretch. Specifically, I am referring to the malaise that has come over a good portion of the pitching staff, with Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, and Javier Vazquez all going through the doldrums for a good chunk of the season. All are good pitchers who have had success recently and through their careers, and all are pitching in front of what is still an above average defense (6th in the bigs in defensive efficiency). Only Contreras has a BABIP below .290, and Vazquez has had the most notable difficulty at .321. If the defense comes back to their overall level of performance for these guys, their low strikeout rates will not look so damaging. On the offensive end, Thome, Dye, Konerko, and Crede have been good enough to carry the team to the top of the run scored heap in the AL while getting zilch out of the defensive-minded Brian Anderson in CF. If he produces anything (really, anything) the rest of the way, it will make a big difference for the offense. If Scott Podsednik nudges his OBP up just a little above .350, he will be much more valuable. And the deeper bench than they had last year that has kept the lineup fresh all year will start to pay greater dividends down the stretch. Additionally, Kenny Williams is a GM with panache. A week ago, I alluded to the fact that he would probably somehow get involved in the Bobby Abreu running since he was the biggest name on the market. Instead, it is Soriano who has drawn Williams’s attention, and rightfully so. As I mentioned earlier, Podsednik is one of the team’s few offensive weaknesses, and even considering the defensive drop off, adding Soriano creates lots of runs and gives the team a chance to win more games. With an already old-ish core and a lot of money tied up in the next few years, it should be a no-brainer to go for the back-to-back titles. Since the playoffs are not a guarantee, the Sox need to become lead-footed while they can to make the best team they can make. The Yankees have won a lot of titles, and it was not the attitude that Brandon McCarthy might make a good third starter in a year or two that got them there, because in the long run, we’re all dead. Or at least Jim Thome will not be as effective.

1. Detroit Tigers- For most of the season, I have avoided making any sort of judgment on the Tigers. At first, it seemed like a nice story that a team on the upswing could taste success before their real ETA of 2007 or 2008. Then, it seemed like a nuisance for the Twins to get mowed down by a divisional buzz saw while they were working out their own roster issues. Eventually, it became the sort of nagging sore that makes you want to pick at it in hopes that it will go away, but, obviously, that will only make it worse. Dave Dombrowski can say what he will about talent evaluation, but even he knows that this year’s Tigers team was not built to win 100, or even 90, games. This was yet another transition year, on the way to divisional dominance two or three years down the road. Verlander, Zumaya, and Bonderman were not supposed to all crest at the same time, and the older parts of the offense were not supposed to all stay this healthy and this productive. In one sense, they have experienced the perfect storm. In another, they are left with the dilemma of what to do with the long term plan now that stopgaps like Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers have coincided with success- not caused it. Do they go with more veterans around Guillen, Ordonez, and Pudge for the next couple of years, or continue with the plan to develop Cameron Maybin, Humberto Sanchez, and their other, more talented and long-lasting farmhands? It is a legitimate question, albeit one that skirts the issue of the 2006 Detroit Tigers, once again. So here’s what I got. This level of offensive production seems unsustainable- only 19 runs behind 2nd place New York. Guillen, Ordonez, and Pudge have all had seasons this good in the past, but nobody expected any one of them to experience a reentry to that level this season with so much durability, much less all at the same time. Curtis Granderson has been exceptional, and his success should not be a surprise since it matches up with minor league statistics and most projection metrics. Marcus Thames, on the other hand, is slugging a ridiculous .605- an number which does not make sense in any sort of platoon arrangement. Factor in Chris Shelton’s hot start and cold continuance and that is the gist of the Tigers’ offensive contribution. So many things could go wrong, and the fact that none have is a testament to the training staff, to Jim Leyland, to the players themselves, to Magglio’s weird Austrian knee surgeon, and to whichever deity has looked over the clubhouse all year. As the deadline approaches, the holes in the lineup known as Brandon Inge, Placido Polanco, Dmitri Young, and Craig Monroe could easily be replaced, although the Tigers seem less and less involved as trade rumors circulate. If any team could use one more bat to offset attrition, this is that team, unless they have chosen to stay the course with their younger players and try to make a run of domination through the end of the decade- not an unreasonable proposal. The pitching success should come as less of a surprise, because the breakthrough was more of an eventuality than a potentiality. Robertson and Rogers- ok, that may be some “unexplained variance,” but even if they were half as valuable as they have been, the team would still lead the division and stand out as one of the best run prevention units in the AL. Verlander and Bonderman broke through at just the right time, combining filthy stuff with good control and a penchant for playing to a tremendous defense. Miner and Maroth have combined to make up one ambidextrous, soft-balling, fifth starter who puts plenty of balls in play, but benefits from that same defensive unit. If there is one obvious minor move the team could make, it would be adding a middle reliever and bumping Todd Jones out of high leverage situations. Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya (of the 10+ K/9) would be better suited to finish games than the mustachioed one, though Zumaya’s BB totals might create a little more cardiac stress than their elderly skipper can handle. Altogether, Detroit has been very, very good this season, and as much as I want to dismiss their success as a confluence of good health, career years, and fortunate bounces, they have already demonstrated that they are better than that. And even though my gut tells me the Yankees or White Sox are a smarter bet in the post-season, the data clearly indicate that the Tigers are the top of the pile until somebody proves otherwise.

Power Rankings
Starting to Matter

Ninety Percent of Winning is Just Showing Up

14. Houston Astros- I originally ranked the Astros quite a bit higher, but taking a good look at the components of the offense would make anyone feel a little worse about Houston’s playoff chances. Going to the World Series makes everyone seem better than they really are, from scrubs who look like valuable situational players to regulars who seem like stars, just from the exposure. Houston’s roster is full of guys whose reputation, for whatever reason, far exceeds his actual ability. Preston Wilson spent years mashing homers in Coors, which gave him the sheen of a legitimate power hitter, even though he is more like a replacement level outfielder (currently 0.0 VORP). Aubrey Huff’s name circulated through so many rumor mills over the last three years that it seemed like he must have something left in the tank, but he is pretty pedestrian in all respects other than his below-average defense. In fact, everyone on the offense other than Lance Berkman is probably a little bit overrated for one reason or another, making the team look a lot better than it is. The pitching equation still revolves around Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettitte. Clemens has been good since his return, but not Roger-Freakin’-Clemens, which may or may not continue through the season. Oswalt has gutted out a terrific season, but has already missed a few starts, and continues to pitch through pain that could worsen. Pettitte has remained healthy, but arguably to the detriment of the team in one of his worst seasons of all time. Maybe this team has it in them to make another crazy run down the stretch, but right now the playoffs look like a dream than the light at the end of the tunnel.

13. Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels- The Angels very rarely make trades. Bill Stoneman has become almost notorious for his commitment to his own players, possibly to a fault. This season marks yet another opportunity for the Angels to distinguish themselves from the pack, but they made need some outside reinforcements to do so. The offense has been performing at a higher level than many expected (455 runs, 10th in the league, but not so terribly crippling as many forecast) and has received help from a starting rotation that is solid one through five. The problem is that all of the room for growth will likely be offset by natural regression by other players unless they add a legitimate first baseman. Adding Howie Kendrick to the lineup at second base will help the offense, putting a legitimate bat in place of Twin-killer Adam Kennedy. On the other hand, Orlando Cabrera and Mike Napoli are both above their 90th percentile PECOTA EQA projections, and Juan Rivera is around the 80th percentile. True breakouts, or signs of regression to come? Napoli may be better than anticipated, but not a .405 OBP, .553 SLG guy. Rivera, too, will likely see his .541 SLG dip substantially as the season goes along, and Cabrera has played the role of the archetypal solid veteran having a great half before returning to his mortal coil. Kendrick can hardly be expected to make up the difference for all of these players, even if Napoli gets a greater share of offensive black-hole Jose Molina’s playing time. Having Kendry Morales and Casey Kotchman combine to cost the team almost two wins at a premium offensive position is unacceptable. Supposedly the team was in on the Shea Hillenbrand sweepstakes, which shows commitment. The next step should be to proactively search out other players who have not alienated their own teams to the point of being released, like Craig Wilson or Jeff Conine. Neither player would do for them offensively what Carlos Beltran did for the Astros in 2004, but keep in mind the kind of dreg for which they would be standing in. Being worth one win over theoretical replacement level would help the Angels in a tight pennant race, but being worth three wins over the mess that they would truly replace makes a huge difference. I believe that Weaver, Colon, Lackey, Santana, and Escobar are enough in the way of starting pitching, even if they have to patch things together with Hector Carrasco and Kevin Gregg every now and then. For a team getting so many contributions from 30+ players, there is at least some reason to play for right now, and nabbing a real first baseman would help them tremendously in a division without a dominant team.

12. San Diego- Quick, name the most valuable San Diego Padre position player for 2006. Brian Giles is not even close due to his .386 SLG, part of a family-wide letdown. Mike Piazza would be a good guess with a solid performance across the board, but his playing time has been closely monitored, leaving him fourth on the team. Josh Barfield is having a great rookie year with surprisingly few bumps in the road, and surprisingly little national attention (an epidemic that seems to collectively slap the entire organization in the face). Mike Cameron is second, legitimizing the risk of picking up a player with a broken face and hitting consistently in the everyday lineup. The leader did not even join the team until midway through the first half, but has torched pitchers ever since. Piazza’s backup, Josh Bard, is hitting .379/.439/.629 and showing why the Red Sox so badly wanted him to be able to catch a knuckleball. That would be embarrassing, but the rest of the team has 12 and 20 runs of VORP outside of third base. Fixing that situation through reacquiring Joe Randa, or getting creative somewhere else, would make them a pretty solid offensive team in a ballpark that does not let them show it with lots of run scoring. On the other side of the ledger, Chris Young recently completed his second straight dominant second half. Repeating the performance through at least August would show meaningful growth, though slipping back to last year’s form would demonstrate a real problem. Jake Peavy is the bigger story, falling so far from grace that he was recently rumored to be headed to Boston for Mike Lowell, who was forced on Boston this offseason as a burdensome throw-in to the Josh Beckett deal. Peavy’s problems are twofold, but not terribly discouraging. One change from last year is his homerun rate ballooning from .8 last year to 1.23 this year, more than 50% increase. Peavy’s other peripherals are in order (more than 9 K/9 and about 2.5 BB/9), so those extra five or six homeruns over the course of the season might just be an aberration. The other factor contributing to Peavy’s allowing more ER so far this year than in either of the last two full seasons has been an astonishingly high .329 BA on balls in play. A normally good defense has let him down time and again. Overall, San Diego ranks second in the league in turning batted balls into outs, at a rate of 71.5% of balls in play. When Peavy pitches, however, the team has fallen to 67.4%, which would rank them second to last in the majors. If the defense behind Peavy even approximates what it does behind all of the other SD pitchers, his second half will look far better than the first, the Mike Lowell rumors will look ridiculous, and the Padres will have a great chance at returning to October for the second straight year.

11. Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers are now down 3.5 games in the NL West race, but they are the only team in the division with at least a +10 run differential. At +25 runs, the Dodgers might be a little better than their 47-50 record. The NL West is a crapshoot, so it could come down to one or two wins here or there, and their run differential indicates that they might have a leg up over the last couple of months. In fact, the BP playoff odds report, which runs 1,000,000 simulations of the rest of the season using PECOTA projections to weight the players’ likelihood of continued success/failure, gives the Dodgers a 25% chance of making the playoffs, actually a bit behind the 35% for the Giants, 41% for the Padres, and 28% for the Diamondbacks. Aside from an early DL stint, Nomar Garciaparra has been a fringe MVP candidate at .337/.405/.553. A couple of other old players have also contributed, such as Jeff Kent (16.7 VORP), Kenny Lofton (13.4), Olmedo Saenz (10.2), as well as some very young players, like Russell Martin (11.2), Andre Ethier (16.1), and Matt Kemp (7.0). The mix of old and young gives them a bit of a buffer zone, such as having extra players on hand in case anyone breaks down, and being able to trade some high-level prospects to fill in holes at the deadline. Speaking of holes, the rotation really only goes two deep with Brad Penny and Derek Lowe pitching like they were supposed to pitch when the DePodesta regime doled out loads of money for them. Aaron Sele has been outstanding, but the absurdity of that statement is enough to more or less delegitimize his performance. Chad Billingsley has been fine as a rookie, but not good enough to be the team’s third starter, and neither is Brett Tomko, who doesn’t strike anyone out and gives up a huge number of HRs in Dodger stadium. Ned Colletti already made one mistake in trading too much for not enough in the swap that brought them Mark Hendrickson (negative VORP in four starts), so he would be wise to hold out for a higher return if he decides to trade one of his other top prospects, such as Joel Guzman. That is not to say that trading to win now is a bad idea, since the playoffs are eminently reachable in their division and the team is built around several players who will likely never approximate this year’s performance again due to age and injury concerns. Shoring up the rotation is a start, but they should also find more help at third base, and possibly some insurance in case Kenny Lofton breaks down.

10. Oakland A’s- The A’s have been a tremendous letdown this season, partially due to a plague of varied injuries, and partially due to their own inability to hit anything but singles. Acquiring Frank Thomas was supposed to rectify their slugging problem, but where Thomas has been solid, everyone else has bombed. Eric Chavez is hitting under .250 and slugging under .450. Bobby Crosby is slugging below .350 with a Juan Castro-like .298 OBP. This roster was built to avoid strikeouts, which it has accomplished to an extent, with the 8th most K’s in the league against the third most walks. But the overall team OPS has been the worst in the league, and it has resulted in the second worst run scoring total in the league, ahead of only Tampa Bay. On the mound Barry Zito and Dan Haren have led a stellar staff (2nd in the AL in runs prevented) by pitching lots of innings. Zito has made his money by not allowing HRs, but doling out his usual allotment of free passes. Haren, on the other hand, has been a control freak, walking less than two per nine. Brad Halsey and Joe Blanton have been solid, and even Esteban Loaiza has shown signs of life lately, indicating that they can survive without Rich Harden, if not thrive. Of course, the hope in Oakland is that Harden turns his career around and gets over his arm problems, but it is a lot easier to think of examples of players who played unsatisfying and injury-filled careers than ones who overcame frailty to be healthy for a long time. Going into the deadline, Oakland is a perplexing case. They constantly hint that Zito is dangling by a thread, especially in a thin pitching market. I do not understand why they would trade Zito for Lastings Milledge, as rumored, when they could pick up two early draft selections by letting him walk, instead. Maybe Beane sees the draft as too much of a crapshoot, but Milledge is hardly ready to contribute today, so it is not as if they are passing on a current All-Star. If they really want to make a run this year, the easiest places to upgrade would be in the OF (over Joe Payton) and at second base (over Mark Ellis). Beane allegedly inquired about Alfonso Soriano last week, so it seems that they have pinpointed some of the same weaknesses. As for the rest of the terrible lineup, the walk rates are still there for Crosby and Chavez, so it may just take time to recover the batting average, and in turn, a bit of the slugging. Beane has been patient all year, but it may be time to start making changes.

Legal ‘Tenders

9. Texas Rangers- By default, the Rangers become my pick to win the AL West as the highest ranked team from that division in the rankings. Unlike a lot of teams who have nowhere to go but down, the Rangers have lots of room for growth to make up for the likely regression from Gary Matthews Jr. In fact, at .325/.376/.518, Matthews might make for good trade bait, with a value that will never be higher in a market that could fetch them a real pitcher for a solid centerfielder. Not a single offensive regular has had a truly bad year that hints at permanent decline, but guys like Brad Wilkerson, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira have room for improvement within reasonable expectations. Each one has had some BA and SLG struggles that can eventually be overcome without a major change in approach. Even in an offensive-minded stadium, the Rangers are only 7th in the AL in runs scored, and a better than expected pitching-defense unit has kept them within a game or two of the division lead for most of the season. They have made due with a bullpen of rejects, like Rick Bauer (15.0 VORP), soft-balling Ron Mahay (7.0), Bryan Corey (7.7), and revelatory closer Akinori Otsuka (18.8). Off-season acquisitions Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla have been solid inning eaters in the rotation, combining for better than 40 runs of VORP. After them, John Rheinecker and John Kornoka have made positive, if not brilliant, contributions, and Adam Eaton will join the rotation in the relatively near future, possibly rounding out Texas’s first decent rotation in years. I see plenty of room for the Rangers to improve down the stretch, only a few players likely to fall off, and a good chance to finally turn the corner and win the AL West.

8. Toronto Blue Jays- If it is any consolation for a 3rd place finish, the Jays’ big spending has certainly improved the team. I predicted before the season that they had done enough to cross the 90 win threshold, possibly verging on 93-94 wins and pressing for the Wild Card if Boston or New York faltered. The emergence of the Tigers threw a big monkey wrench in J.P. Riccardi’s plan to get into the postseason and ride Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. As it has turned out, the outfield of Reed Johnson, Alexis Rios, and Vernon Wells has been remarkably productive- the three highest VORP totals on the team. Lyle Overbay, maybe the team’s 5th or 6th biggest off-season pickup, is 4th on the offense. Still, Troy Glaus has been productive, B.J. Ryan has been one of the best relievers in the league. If A.J. Burnett can turn six successful starts into a more sustainable contribution, he could help the team get over their 90.2 win pace and actually challenge in the AL East. The remaining obstacles are pretty clearly defined; the rotation needs another good starter, whether Josh Towers returns to being one or not. Between Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, the team has one decent middle infielder (Hill), and needs to get another one to fill in the offensive holes if Rios cannot outlast his staph infection or if Johnson cannot continue hitting .347. Losing Shea Hillenbrand will probably have a negative effect on the offense, but could be replaced with one of the many 4th outfielder types without too great of a deficit. Riccardi mortgaged the team for this year and next, so you can expect them to be active leading up to the trade deadline, and filling in the pitching or offensive holes could make enough of a difference to let them pounce on any mistakes by the Yankees or Red Sox. Nonetheless, they face a pretty tough road to the playoffs.

7. Minnesota Twins- As tough as it will be for Toronto to overcome two teams and about five games in the AL East, BP’s playoff odds report says that they have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Twins (15% to 11%). Twins fans have focused on catching and passing the White Sox, but even though they are the current Wild Card leaders, the Twins also must overcome the Yankees, who are within a game and a half of Chicago. Once again, it comes down to finding a way to get past Chicago and New York, which is not always the easiest track for the Twins, especially now that Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield are nearing a return. If the Twins want to make the playoffs, they will probably have to catch and pass the Yankees before those returns in mid-August, so the current hot streak has to extend through the tough stretch of playing Detroit and Chicago in the next few weeks. As I commented earlier, the run differential of “these” Twins- as opposed to the Batista-Castro Twins- is comparable to any of the AL contenders, and most trades to not hold up to logical scrutiny. If the Twins want to make any changes down the stretch, it should be to let some of their talented minor league pitchers get a shot at the rotation spot that Carlos Silva has been blaspheming for the last few months. Getting Hunter and Ford back could provide some offensive help and lots of defensive help, which should basically negate the effect of the fact that Justin Morneau is not a .300 hitter and Joe Mauer is not a .380 hitter. Improvement must come from within: from continued defensive improvement, from OBP at the top of the lineup, from solidifying the back of the rotation with guys in the pipeline, and from continuing to put the best available lineup on the field day after day.

6. St. Louis Cardinals- The Cards are already an 82% bet to make the playoffs, but that is more of a reflection of their competition than their own competency. Depending on who you trust, the Cards have either already made their big move by nabbing Jeff Weaver from Anaheim on his darkest day, or else they have a big trade in the works for Dontrelle Willis by giving up everything in their farm system to make a run this year, and maybe next. As long as Pujols is threatening to set dozens of different offensive records, I will never say that his team should not go for a title that season, especially when their competition has given them a free pass into the playoffs. The pitching rotation has been the problem all season long, arguably compounded by Mark Mulder’s should injury. In fact, Mulder was below replacement level for the year, due to a solemn 4.8 K/9 and almost 2 HR/9, and could easily be outperformed by Weaver, functioning as his replacement. Sidney Ponson was recently released, although he was no worse than mainstays Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis, simply lacking their postseason experience, whatever that is worth. Chris Carpenter has been great, and Anthony Reyes has become a good contributor at the back of the rotation. Walt Jocketty would be wise to find another starter who could contribute, but Willis may be too big of a ticket for them. More middling starters who could come around down the stretch and really do good work in the playoffs would be worth their while. Remember, this team is probably going to make the playoffs with or without rotation help, so they should be thinking of filling in gaps that will make a difference in October more than August or September. Orlando Hernandez is already taken, but if they can pinpoint another starter who can give them a few good weeks at a time, then charge him up for the postseason, the Cards could pose a threat to the Mets in the NLCS. Even without any more pitching, just having Albert Pujols might be enough to challenge just about anyone, and Scott Rolen has surprisingly returned comfortably to his position as one of the top third basemen in the National league. Behind those two, they may lean on Hector Luna, Scott Spiezio, Chris Duncan, or any other mess of quad-A types, but all any of them needs to do is to get on base in front of the middle of the order, and they will score enough runs to compete. Only Yadier Molina is doing violence to the offense, though acquiring a new catcher seems unlikely after putting up with his out wastefulness for a couple seasons already. My guess is that Tony LaRussa will be confident riding another deep and talented bullpen into the postseason, and that the roster will somehow start to look a lot more dangerous in the playoffs than it does now.

One day left for the final five, and I promise that this column will not be another 3,000 word ode to baseball urn.

Power Rankings
The Middle of the Pack

Before getting back to the power rankings, I would like to briefly address a couple of Twins rumors popping up in several newspapers and blogs. Supposedly, the Twins are interested in Alfonso Soriano to be a big bat in the OF/DH spot down the stretch. The logic behind the rumor consists of Soriano’s toolsy makeup matching up with Terry Ryan’s toolsy fantasies, and nothing more. Like last July, I do not believe that the Twins are ready to sell the farm to get Soriano, but will keep Jim Bowden on the line as a last resort. Bowden hamstrung himself by building an expensive team of older players with little chance of contending who all hit free agency this off-season. Now, he has to start making trades, and may have to settle for less than value for the big ticket items if teams sour on his asking price at the last minute. Seattle and Detroit are said to have balked at giving up their top prospects for Soriano, and Minnesota will probably not break the trend. Perhaps that means they will be inclined to give up a couple of mid-range pitching prospects, like Adam Harben, J.D. Durbin, and Boof, from their copious array of hurlers as a fallback in case Bowden cannot work out a better deal and risks getting nothing in return. If that is the strategy Ryan will employ, it is not a bad one, since they have so much pitching that even a marginal rate of successful conversion into major league talent will mean several of the lower level pitchers will be blocked on their way to the majors. Trading for Reggie Sanders or some similar B-rate pickup makes little sense because it would mean paying lots of marginal dollars and prospects for a very small marginal upgrade that would almost certainly not make the difference between playoffs and fishing boats. The more likely deployment of those minor league pitching resources is to fill in the gaps from within, as noted twice in the Pioneer Press this week. If Silva or Baker continues to struggle, Ryan could call upon fast-rising Matt Garza to bookend the rotation with another 22 year old. Garza has flown through the minors this season, from when my dad watched him pitch in Ft. Myers in April to a couple of good starts in Rochester at present. Garza may benefit from that “once around the league” maxim that says a new pitcher will trick hitters more than the obverse. Due to the weakness at the back of the rotation, that move could mean more wins down the stretch than an upgrade over a pretty decently deep outfield, and it does not surrender any future resources. Now, back to the regularly scheduled power rankings.

It Can’t Hurt To Dream

21. Cincinnati Reds- My opinion of the Reds was made pretty clear in this space recently, so I will keep it short and sweet. The lineup, which was a source of strength with plus bats C, 3B, SS, LF, CF, and RF lost a good deal of its luster by giving away 1/3 of those bats for 70 innings of relief help for the rest of the year. They marginally upgraded their defense in the process, but they have easily put themselves at a 2-3 win deficit for this trade just due to the fact that the players they gave up will play so much more. Now they are one Griffey injury away from becoming a very pedestrian offense that leans on Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo far too much. I keep thinking back to 2005 Baltimore with this team- a hot hitting offense goes cold and it exposes an overrated pitching staff. Not that I think the Reds are about to approach 90 losses, but I have a foreboding feeling about their chances of finishing .500, even as they sit squarely in the Wild Card hunt.

20. San Francisco Giants- Year after year goes by, and we still only have one thing to say about the Giants: this team will go as far as Barry Bonds can take them. As recently as 2002, that meant all the way to the World Series, but we saw the horrific reality that is the “rest of the Giants” in 2005, and it was not pleasant for anyone, except maybe Dodger fans. The rest of the players will fluctuate between mediocrity and semi-star status as average players tend to do. J.T. Snow, Marquis Grissom, and Rich Aurillia all had their moments in the sun batting in similar lineups. Brian Sabean has a talent for finding an incredible abundance of remarkably average players, so there will always be a handful of guys filling that mantle, and Pedro Feliz has joined Ray Durham to play out that string this year. All the while, a downtrodden, tired, nearly indicted Bonds has done as good of an impersonation of a megastar slugger as any injured 41 year-old is going to do. His .247 batting average hints at a lost step, some trouble spots in his swing, and a little bad luck, but let’s not ignore the .472 OBP, and slugging .500 is not shabby. For what it is worth, his recent surge has probably ensured that Jason Schmidt is not going anywhere for the rest of the year, securing the top of the rotation with one of the league’s top starters this year. After early season struggles, Matt Cain and Matt Morris have been acceptable mid-rotation guys, and Noah Lowry and Jamey Wright do what they have to do to remain 4th-5th starters in the majors. Throw in a strong but lucky year from swingman Brad Hennessey (2.63 ERA, 26/25 K/BB), and the Giants can pretty credibly eat up a large number of innings. In a division once again without a clear favorite, a roster chalk full of unremarkable respectability might just get it done, especially if accented by a hot streak from the silhouette of a classic swing. If Bonds collapses, or even struggles, though, forget about it.

19. Seattle Mariners- The Mariners are a team that had me fooled at the start of the year. I saw the mathematical projections and the scouts’ notes and thought they all painted slightly too rosy of a picture for a team that had only a couple of notable bright spots: Felix Rodriguez and Ichiro. In reality, King Felix and Richie Sexson have performed well below their projections and the team has still outperformed my expectations. How? Almost every other player on the roster has been just a little bit better than generally expected, whereas I had them all performing just a little bit worse than generally expected. In other words, their reasonable upside topped out at around 85 wins and bottomed out at about 72. I opted toward the latter, but the team has found its way closer to the former thus far. Jose Lopez arriving a little early and slugging .448 is part of the equation, so is Ichiro’s .342/.398/.444 line. Raul Ibanez has been downright revelatory, hitting a remarkable .281/.347/.536, and the team has stayed impressively healthy, with 8 of their 9 regulars appearing in at least 84 of 92 games so far. Perhaps that workload will wear them down eventually and press a short bench into service, but we shall cross that bridge when we get too it. After all, injury prevention is a skill in itself. On the pitching side, King Felix has obvious struggled with a 4.89 ERA, but Jamie Moyer and Gil Meche have kept their ERAs under 4.00 despite weak peripherals. It may be time for some pitching attrition, but do not underestimate the run suppressing power of SAFECO park, a consideration which makes the team’s collective offensive overachievement markedly more impressive.

18. Milwaukee Brewers- The Brewers were one of my favorite teams before the season because it looked like a complete lineup, top to bottom, with a deep bench and some really solid pitchers. All that remained for Doug Melvin was to cobble together another average-plus bullpen out of spare parts, and the Brewers would push the Cards for the division and someone in the East for the Wild Card. Specifically, I had them finishing with 84 wins, a number that still looks reachable if not terribly probable. What went wrong? I can identify two fatal errors that I believe account for most of the difference between what I projected, and where the Brewers will most likely finish (currently 4 games under .500, but with a much larger run deficit, they project to about 75-78 wins at this rate). The first difference is completely my fault: I do not have a scout’s eye for defense, and the defensive metrics which I trust are neither terribly predictive nor reliable. The Brewers have been the fifth worst defensive team in the majors this year, struggling in the OF, at 2B, 1B, and SS with J.J. Hardy on the DL. Really, only Corey Koskie has been a plus defender among their regulars, and although they are not especially terrible anywhere, the cascading inefficiencies add up to a lot of outs given back to the other team. Perhaps I ought to have seen an OF of Carlos Lee, Brady Clark and Geoff Jenkins losing a step and not covering enough ground. By the same token, maybe it was obvious that Rickie Weeks could not survive on pure athleticism, and little Cecil could not survive on pure technique- although, if I had to have one of each type, putting them adjacent to one another may minimize the effect. Whether or not those struggles were predictable, the less foreseeable development has been the pitching staff and its injuries. Ben Sheets was supposedly healthy coming into the season. I even saw him go all out on a few fastballs early in spring training, for what it is worth. Tomo Ohka did not look like a key cog in the machine, but keep in mind that a player’s value over replacement level is a very relative term- a team that can plug its rotation with Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Boof Bonser is better equipped to handle a pitching rotation meltdown than one reliant on a vast array of retreads and have-nots. A team can expect to start more than five starters over the course of a season, but the Brew Crew has already cobbled together a cumulative 12 man rotation, including sub-replacement contributions from Jorge De La Rosa, Dana Eveland, and Ben Hendrickson over a combined 12 starts. Having Sheets and Ohka rejoin the stable trio of Capuano, Davis, and Bush at the front of the rotation would be a huge help, and would make up for a lot of the defense’s shortcomings by missing more bats and causing less stress through homeruns and walks. The offense is not the problem- at 444 runs, they sit right in the middle of the NL, a good place for a supposedly balanced club to be. The problem is preventing runs, and the Brewers have to do something about their starting pitching durability and their defensive efficiency before they can move on to the next stage of being a contender, and this concern is very important considering that their week defensive infield is supposed to be the offensive centerpiece of the team for years to come.

Everybody On The Bus!

17. Atlanta Braves- What is more reliably hot in July, the northern hemisphere or the Atlanta Braves? Depending on how figuratively you want to interpret the question, it is perfectly legitimate. Once again, a team we had left for dead in June is now only five games under .500 in a volatile NL Wild Card race, going in the opposite direction as Milwaukee. Remember when they were 13 games under .500 and about 10 pitchers short of a big league staff? Those days are gone now, and Bobby Cox is looking as good as ever. I cannot tell you how he does it, or even that it is him doing it, with any certainty, but when a team gets prime performances from unexpected places every single year, the manager deserves some credit. Edgar Renteria returned from AL purgatory, accumulating 33.7 runs of VORP to make people forget that Rafael Furcal ever existed, and his rightfully maligned defense in Boston is back above average in Atlanta, according to BP’s defensive rate. Wilson Betemit and Adam Laroche have hit for enough power to join Brian McCann as a legitimate supporting cast for the Joneses. Even Horacio Ramirez and Chuck James have gotten in on the act, giving them something resembling a major league rotation to put in front of that Crash Davis-esque bullpen (in terms of notoriety). While the 11.5 game deficit is real, the Braves are only 4.5 games behind in terms of run differential, and run second to the Padres in the Wild Card race in 3rd order wins. They do not get credit for those wins, but they do tend to predict future success, so look for the Braves to stay hot for a while. The irony of ironies would be for the Braves lose out to the Mets in the NL East, but finally win the World Series. Would everyone just pretend that they won the division that year, too, like they do for the 1994 season?

16. Arizona Diamondbacks- For the D-Backs, it is all about the rookies, and not in the “let’s give up on this year and play for the future sense.” The remnants of the old front office in the desert are both good- young studs like Conor Jackson, Justin Upton, Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young (actually from Josh Byrnes’s trade)- and bad- big money tied up in players who are distinctly over the hill, like Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Craig Counsell, and the huge amounts of money being paid to Russ Ortiz to not pitch for them. Releasing Ortiz shows a recognition of the ability to deal with sunk costs, so they might as well go all out and play their best players, regardless of tenure or salary. The natural response is to point out that the team is hardly out of the race, trailing the Padres by only one game entering play on the 22nd. And I agree, they should play for this year, and the team is in the enviable position of having their future arriving right now. They are better off playing their young players than their old ones right now. The turnover started with when they handed Drew the shortstop job, but unloading Green’s salary for anything would probably give them more production out of Quentin, and moving Eric Byrnes at his peak value would pave the way for Chris Young. Brandon Webb is a true superstar pitcher, maybe the best in the game this year, giving the team a fallback stopper when they struggle. The rest of the staff, however, could use some reinforcement. They are the team who finally put their trust in Juan Cruz for more than two or three starts, and he has paid dividends. Miguel Batista has been solid, but is not a long-term fix. Without better options, guys like Claudio Vargas and Enrique Gonzalez will have to do while the front office looks for more pitching. Ultimately, the D-Backs are a dark horse for this year, probably a tick behind the Padres, Giants, and Dodgers for this season. Their major-league ready talent, though, gets competition from only the Dodgers, setting up plenty of interesting pennant races- and perhaps a new rivalry- in years to come.

15. Cleveland Indians- Almost every Twins fan I know felt utter hatred toward the Indians in the early ‘00s for blocking the road to the postseason with heartbreaking defeat after heartbreaking defeat. Oddly enough, once the White Sox became the dominant contender to the Twins, Minnesota fans quickly forgave and forgot, seemingly giving the Indians their collective blessing for being a team built from the ground up with lots of charismatic players, much like the Twins. I cannot even begin to guess how many Twins fans from varied and unrelated backgrounds have commented that they hate the White Sox, but that if someone has to beat us, it might as well be the Indians. To that end, it is sad to see the team struggle like it does. It seems like every time I watch one of their games, something goes horribly wrong, like Sabbathia’s start against the Twins a few nights ago, when the game was lost in an inning with two walks, a hit batsman, two errors, a dropped tag at the plate on a sac fly, an infield hit, and two big two-strike hits. While many of these events will be recorded in a box score and inputted to stat sheets worldwide, their remarkably bad timing and sequencing will be largely reserved for the tortured hearts and minds of Tribe fans. The team has performed so far below its component performances that they have an 11.2 win deficit against their projected third order wins- Pittsburgh’s 4.8 is next worst. The Indians had a similar fate last year, when they took the best run differential of the regular season with them to their fishing boats in October while they watched the overachieving White Sox dominate the playoffs which could have been theirs. I am not calling for Mark Shapiro to blow up a team with several legitimate superstars, particularly Hafner, Sizemore, and Martinez, though there clearly need to be some changes made around the edges. Aaron Boone is a drain in every sense, and Andy Marte would be much better at the hot corner today, tomorrow, and for the rest of his career. Casey Blake has played well this year, far better than Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Michaels at the other OF corner, but his value can get no higher, and this will not be the year the Indians win the division. When looking at a team with the best hitter in the league and its own version of a young Bernie Williams to go with a half-decent pitching staff, you automatically consider them a contender. I had to think long and hard about my ranking of the Indians, and I think I have been relatively generous considering their record, even though they could be much better.

Twins Notes

A quick break from the power rankings to comment on the surging Twinkies, and to celebrate the one year anniversary of MBC:

We enter play today with the Twins three games out of the playoffs. I bought a ticket to see the Phillies and Braves play today about two weeks ago, and now I am regretting that I will have to miss the Twins game on mlb.tv. The turnaround has been so complete and astounding that it begs the question of whether it is for real. Despite a big advantage for the Sox in run differential, I say the Twins have legitimately closed the gap, because the progress has come under an overhauled roster that cannot be held accountable for the sins of their predecessors. Sabermatricians like to say that the measure of a good team is not how many close games they win, but how many blowouts they win. The thinking is that close games leave more up to chance, and only specialized skills like ace relievers and situational hitters make much of a difference in those late-inning, high leverage situations. Blowouts, on the other hand, hint at a stronger team, top to bottom. The Twins have shown the ability to win both types of games in their two recent hot streaks, though the newfound ability to win games by four or more runs has been the most telling part of the team’s reformation. Since June 8th, when the Twins restructuring really took hold, they have won 15 of their 37 contests by at least 4 runs, helping them to a record of 30-7 over that stretch. In the 58 games before that time, the Twins won only 13 games by 4 or more runs. Their percentage of blowout wins went from 22.4% to 40.5% of all of their games. If a team wins 40% of its games in blowouts, it leaves little to chance, and it also predicates a very strong record, because winnings lots of blowouts requires the same skills as not getting blown out. Over the same stretch since June 8th, the White Sox have gone 22-15, allowing the Twins to gain 8 games in the standings, despite a nine game winning streak last month. They have won nine of their games in blowouts, good for 24.3%, much closer to the Twins old number. In terms of run differential, the Twins have started closing the gap by virtue of all of those blowouts, outscoring their opponents by 91 runs (220-129) since solidifying their starting lineup from within. The Sox have been strong, but not as strong, scoring 206 against 146 runs allowed. Altogether, it has taken the Sox a full season of relatively consistent (if not optimal) play to get them 86 runs above water (545-459), a number strikingly similar to the +91 differential the Twins have had to put together to close in on the lead that they spotted the rest of the division by playing Tony Batista, Juan Castro, and Kyle Lohse. So while the concerns about overall run differential may be legitimate, temper that pessimism with the knowledge that most of the deficit is the responsibility of players who no longer play for the Twins. The current composition of the roster has outplayed Chicago definitively for nearly 40 games, which is a meaningful and telling amount of time.

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How about the rejuvenation of Rondell White? After going to the DL as more of a merciful gesture than an injury concern, we all thought White would never make it back to the Dome, and we bid him good riddance. Then, we fell on hard times with Hunter, Stewart, and Ford hitting the DL in successive days, leaving the OF ravaged. White came back from the DL “prematurely” (I assumed it was not so much premature, as there is no real cure for suckitude) to fill in one of those OF spots, and he responded by erasing more than 10 runs of his deficit against the replacement level in a very short span. Indeed, White is now 13.5 runs below replacement level for the season, but he was past 25 when he went on the DL, so the improvement is much appreciated by the fans. His recent performance has been worth more than a full win since returning, but if there was ever a clearly visible yet intangible benefit of a player’s contributions beyond the stat-line, it has been White’s Lance Armstrong-like beating of the odds. In fact, I’ll take White’s last 10 games over Lance’s Tours every day of the week and twice on Sunday, since White was never the center of an international doping scandal, never hypocritically left his loyal family for a celebrity upon becoming famous, and never broke up with his celebrity girlfriend as soon as she got cancer. Lance did all of those things, and more. I say we start a fundraiser, selling Rondell White “Rock-Hard” bracelets to benefit research into how multiple recurring injuries sap a baseball player’s value over time. I’m on board for the time being, but I recognize the probable transience of White’s positive contributions.

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Finally, White’s “emergence” in the outfield does some interesting things for the Twins lineup. They recently started Josh Rabe at DH, along with White, Tyner, and Cuddyer in the OF. Usually Kubel would take the DH slot, or alternate with White in LF, but the presence of a tough lefty gave the team an excuse to let him rest his sore knees. It is important to keep the young players healthy and rested to prevent the type of end game exhaustion and collapse that ruined Cleveland last season, so Gardy needs to take every step possible to rest Kubel, Mauer, etc, down the stretch. One possibility which has not been employed thus far would be to give either White or Kubel his necessary day off while playing Tyner and Cuddyer in the OF. Start Redmond at catcher and let Mauer DH. Altogether, that lineup gives rest where rest is due, and puts Redmond’s bat in the lineup instead of Rabe’s, a tradeoff just about any Twins fan would make.

More Future than Present
Power Rankings Continued

26. Colorado Rockies- Four out of five for the NL, and my first ranking which may fall wildly out of line with other ranking schemes. Even after losing seven straight, the Rockies have outscored their opponents, and they’re within shouting distance of the division leaders. Also in their favor is the fact that, unlike previous Colorado teams, this iteration of the Rocks has had almost as much success on the road as it has at home (22-22 at home, 22-25 on the road). Also unique is the fact that they rank only 11th in the league in runs scored, but they are second best in the league at preventing runs. Apparently, the humidor is working in Coors field. One explanation I heard from the Rockies’ commentators late last season is that the field was built to have larger dimensions (347-390-415-375-350) to keep balls in the park, but that the humidor deadens the ball to keep it in the stadium. As a result, the outfielders have a lot more ground to cover either behind them or in front of them in a pick-your-poison scenario. In that case, the team should have exceptionally low defensive efficiency, because it would mean that batted balls are much harder to convert into outs. Instead, the Rockies are 16th in the majors in DER, right between the Dodgers and Braves, two teams with some great defenders and some terrible ones. The explanation would still work if the Rockies were actually exceptional defenders being dragged down by the park, but their only itinerate players (Carroll, Ardoin) have had the opposite trend: better stats in Colorado than outside of it. In fact, the park factors for Coors this year are basically neutral overall- 10th in the majors in runs scored, favoring homeruns, but suppressing doubles. Since the field has such a strong effect on our evaluations of Rockies players, it is hard to get a good read on what individuals’ stats mean, but either several of the hitters are playing over their heads, or else several of the pitchers are doing so. Compared to their PECOTA projections and adjusting for the park, Brad Hawpe is far ahead of his weighted mean EQA projection (.298 to .269), as is Matt Holliday (.300 to .271). On the pitching side, Jason Jennings’s 3.64 ERA is much better than the equivalent projection of 5.05, just like Aaron Cook’s 3.72 compared to 5.35. These examples do not say much about how the park factor has changed; they only indicate that, like most teams, the Rockies have some players performing above expectations, and some performing below them. The relevant point, to me, is that the Rockies seem to have an inordinate number of players simultaneously performing an unsustainable distance above their most probable career trajectory. Park effects or no, many Rockies are playing above their individual levels of ability. In other words, their record is not incommensurate with their performance, but their performance may be incommensurate with their talent. Time will tell if I am correct.

25. Tampa Bay Devil Rays- I considered ranking the D-Rays several spots higher based on the heist the Friedman-Hunnsicker pair pulled off from the Dodgers and the wealth of high-ceiling talent that they have in the pipeline. Then I remembered that this is a team that is not ready to compete, and will not be for another year or two. A lineup with Baldelli, Crawford, Upton, Young, Cantu, Gomes and Navarro looks very tasty, but the team needs a lot more pitching, and Baldelli and Crawford may well be traded for depth before the rest of those players are ready to make a run. The D-Rays used a high-risk/high-reward draft strategy under Chuck Lamar, which yielded some big hits, like Young and Upton, but also lots of big busts, like Josh Hamilton, which leaves the big league team thin around the margins. As Joe Sheehan recently noted, this is a team that could play .500 ball down the stretch, but the forthcoming unloading of Julio Lugo will not help reach that goal. Instead, it will start paving the way to a more noble pursuit than a .500 record, an eventual legitimate contender. The difference between the D-Rays and many of the other teams more than 10 games under .500 is the fact that one can follow a clear line of thought from where they are now to where they are trying to get in the next few years.

24. Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles have much more star power than the D-Rays and a better record, but are they really a better team? Since I am making an effort to be in the present, I will rank the O’s just ahead of Tampa, but they have too many extremely similar scrubs surrounding Tejada, Hernandez, Mora and Roberts. Conine, Millar and Lopez have better track records than the crappy supporting casts in Tampa or Chicago, but do not mistake past achievement for present ability. Positive contributions from Chris Britton, Julio Manon, Sendy Rleal and Kurt Brikins make this a trademark Leo Mazzone bullpen. Still, it has not been enough to get Baltimore out of 13th in the league in runs allowed (better than only KC). Admittedly, Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen and Daniel Cabrera have all been worse than I anticipated, but the first two have been so putrid that there is little chance of a meaningful rebound, meaning the problems will probably persist until they largely recast the starting rotation. They got a sweet deal on a Hall of Fame talent in Tejada; it is a shame that they could not put together anything close to a contender to put around him. Now, they are far enough from decency that they will probably have to start over and rebuild without much of a farm system to make the task easier.

23. Florida Marlins- Not in the top 10 like they may have been last year, but they are about seven places higher than anyone would have guessed before the season. Even better, the front office does not have much work left to do before this group of players starts to contend. It will take time, but Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs all project to the types of hitters who can make for a formidable support cast for Miguel Cabrera. Even Miguel Olivo, cast off from teams who were downright desperate for catching help, has shown enough pop (.484 SLG) in a pitcher’s park to make him look like a long term consideration at very least. The pitching staff looks like it will be good and deep in the future, too. Dontrelle may or may not see those better days, but he has recovered from a bad start to put together a season up to his high standards. Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen have been excellent rookies, and struggles from Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Reynel Pinto, Yusmeiro Petit and Jason Vargas are not troubling considering how young they are as a group. I see a trend developing across several of these bottom feeders in that many of them have some front line talent (Bay, Soriano, Cabrera & Willis, Tejada, Lee & Zambrano) and may even have some solid secondary players (Nick Johnson, Mora, Roberts, Aramis Ramirez), but lack depth and talent at the margins. Tampa has to play Greg Norton regularly. Washington had been starting Royce Clayton until recently. Many of the teams have terrible bullpens and/or benches. All of these factors make a very large difference over the course of a full season, and make a team like Boston, with so many options for roster sports 21-25, look that much better. Florida is a quasi-exception to that rule. They do not have the talent around the edges that a great team needs, and they have been using lots of players who do not belong in starting lineups, like Reggie Abercrombie. However, many of the players they have will probably grow into a strong supporting cast. Remember watching the Twins grow from a 70 win team to a division champion without much roster turnover between 1999 and 2002? These Marlins may be on the fast track to a similar run of strong seasons, and at a deep discount.

22. Philadelphia- I have only just moved to Philadelphia, and all the makings of a great season presented themselves, only to deconstruct in front of my eyes. This season has not been one that would prompt anyone to muse that everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong, but their worst luck has hit them in the worst places at the worst times all season long. Where the bullpen has surprised many as a dominant unit behind a resurgent Tom Gordon (watch that recurring dead arm…), Rheal Cormier, Gavin Floyd, and a few more misfits. The rotation, on the other hand, looked pretty solid before the season, if a little thin, and has uniformly fallen below expectations. Six starters have made at least nine starts, and only one has bested a 4.95 ERA, and that is Brett Myers, who has hardly had a reliable season. Having fallen a dozen games behind the surging Mets, the Pat Gillick is faced with a difficult decision. Is there enough in this squad to make one more run with Bobby Abreu, Mike Lieberthal, David Bell, John Lieber, and Aaron Rowand as important players, or is it time to sell off everything besides Howard, Utley, Burrell, and Rollins and start with a clean slate? To my mind, a big part of the calculation has to be what Gillick thinks he can get in return for his most marketable players, and on which players that money will be spent instead. In terms of opportunity cost, spending $8 mil on two very average free agent pitchers next year instead of keeping one more year of Abreu is not particular attractive, especially when the alternative is giving guys like Hamels, Madson, and Mathieson time to develop into legitimate starting pitchers. Maybe the lineup is deep and powerful enough to make a run this year once the pitching staff finds some semblance of order, but they have dug an enormous hole, and it will be difficult to climb out of it without a tremendous reversal of fortunes.

Power Rankings

I spend a lot of time forecasting the future. My recent series on the Twins possible lineup in 2010 is symptomatic of a problem I have with merely existing in the present. Things change, and the more they change, the harder it is to make an accurate forecast based on current knowledge, so perhaps I ought to focus on the here and now every once in a while. Still, sports naturally lend themselves to prognostication, since every game is geared to the eventual goal of a championship. That is why, to me, a series Bill Simmons ran on the NBA sporadically through the last season was one of the best sports columns in my memory. Simmons, whose wit and basketball knowledge often outweighs his choice of topics, kept up a “big picture” column, where he balanced each team’s performance up to the present with the omnipresent context of the team’s chances of winning a title. By contrast, baseball power rankings put entirely too much weight on what has happened up until now, and not enough weight on what is most likely to happen in the near future. In the same way that other NBA power rankings fell in love with the Suns’ gaudy win totals, ESPN.com and others seem to think that the Tigers’ pitching staff is more improvement than aberration. This week, I will attempt to reach a compromise between what we have seen from each team and what that means for their chances of winning the World Series this year. Obviously, some teams have already relegated their hopes to the realm of impossibility, but they still belong in the power rankings, if only as an opportunity for me to give a brief opinion on their placement. Without further ado, onto the power rankings:

Playing For 2008

30. Pittsburgh Pirates- Fresh off of the high of hosting the ASG, Buccos fans must sadly return to the reality that their team has almost no hope. The last spot had to be between them and KC, but ultimately, I decided that Pittsburgh is a little more depressing, and not only because they are a game behind the Royals in the standings. On the positive side, at least Jason Bay is a worthy All-Star, and the pitching staff has some positive growth prospects for the future with Snell, Duke, Gorzellany, et al. On the other hand, they have managed to perform below KC’s level in a much easier division, the farm system does not have anyone of the caliber of Billy Butler or Alex Gordon in KC, and the front office seems content to make the same mistakes (Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz) over and over again. More than anything, the Pirates need direction, and right now they have all the orientation of a busted compass.

29. Kansas City Royals- It is a shame that the two worst teams in baseball share in common great sports towns and underrated stadiums. The Royals, unlike the Pirates, at least show an interest in getting better. Owner David Glass is notoriously tight with the purse strings, but hiring Dayton Moore away from Atlanta demonstrates an interest in- if not dedication to- developing a strong farm system, which may be the one way a team can eventually win without spending all that much money. As I mentioned in the Pittsburgh piece, the farm system already has a couple of gems in Butler and Gordon, but they have a long way to go. Ranking them ahead of the Pirates is not so much an endorsement of what the team has done as it is an acknowledgment that they have yet to make any huge mistakes. They have a clean slate, now we’ll see what they do with it. If the team does not get any better in the next couple of years, they are going to join the ranks of miserable sports teams that are more famous for being bad than anything else. The Bengals and Clippers recently ascended from that status in pro sports, and the D-Rays may vacate baseball’s permanent cellar in the next couple of years. Before long, fans will be wearing garbage bags to games, and they will get their own mildly insulting moniker in the proud lineage of the Twinkies, Buccos and Bungles. (Foibles? Royal Flush?)

28. Chicago Cubs- The Cubs are a different sort of miserable. Even before the year, when some pundits were picking them as a sleeper to make a run at the diminished Cardinals, it seemed like the Cubs at pretty big holes all over the field. Their pitching staff was top-heavy, but lacked the depth that a staff with Prior and Wood necessitates, let alone a staff with Prior and Wood that is managed by Dusty Baker. Offensively, Derek Lee looked like a good bet to put up another strong season, but an outfield of Jones-Pierre-Murton hinted at serious on-base problems. The infield isn’t much better, as Dusty inexplicably overcame his aversion for young players to let Ronny Cedeno post a .617 OPS at shortstop. Carlos Zambrano, Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and Lee are all championship-caliber players, but the rest of the important players on the roster are hardly major league-caliber. In recent years, the Cubs have tried to leverage their bankroll into building a team of stars through free agency, much like the Yankees. But without as much money or as many attractive features as New York, the Cubs have had to settle for B-rate talent at the top, but they have all of the same problems as the Yankees in terms of filling in the gaps with cheap talent from their own system- trades and draft pick compensation have dried it out. Is it any coincidence that both teams sampled Tony Womack in the recent past?

27. Washington Nationals- Much as I have maligned Jim Bowden since he took over the Nationals, he has made two slam dunk trades. The Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence deal from last off-season left them with a broken down version of his sought-after 3rd starter type, but moving Castilla for anything opened the path for Ryan Zimmerman. More recently, adding Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for relief pitchers has to be a good idea, unless one of those relievers turns out to be Mariano Rivera (highly unlikely). Even the Soriano deal, terrible as it looked at the time, has worked out reasonably well with the Fonz learning plate discipline the hard way- batting in front of a terrible lineup- and defying everything we know about park effects. The Nats are currently starting legitimate players at every position for the first time since arriving in DC, but that ecstasy probably will not last through the end of the month. Soriano’s value is higher than when the Nats overpaid to acquire him, so maybe they will be able to get a reasonable swag in return from the Mets, Yankees, or, who knows, the White Sox. One way or another, the team needs to start restocking the farm system, because they do not have the pitching depth to sustain a run, and Livan Hernandez, Tony Armas, and Jose Guillen will fetch a variety of goodies. In all, the Nationals have been pretty bad all year, and will be pretty bad in the near future, but look pretty decent for the next couple of weeks. If the current roster finished the season together, it would rank a few slots higher.
I shall return with more on this subject in the near future, but the project is taking more time and words than anticipated, so I will spare us both the concern for the time being.

Legends of the Fall

Baseball experts knew it for a long time, and Billy Beane made it well known: teams generally spend the first third of the season discovering their greatest strengths and weakness, the second third trying to fill their holes, and the final third pursuing a playoff spot. It stands to reason, then, that we would have a pretty good idea of which teams are good and which teams are bad by the 90 game mark. Nonetheless, every season sees its share of teams starting strong and fading into oblivion after promising starts. Last year, the Orioles and Nationals looked like legitimate playoff contenders, but various midseason monkey wrenches- Rafael Palmeiro’s sabotage job, Baltimore’s pitching meltdown, and the collective injury plague in DC- prevented either team from even finishing with a winning record. As it turns out, a 75-80 win team can masquerade as an 85-90 win team for half of a season without anyone noticing, but the chances of regression to the mean remain eminently overwhelming. Sometimes, a handful of fortuitous bounces will give a team a disproportionate number of one-run wins. Other times, the right players will all get hot simultaneously, making the team look better than it really is. In determining which teams are primed for a second half not in line with their first half success, several factors are important to consider. Teams with records out of accordance with their run differentials are prime suspects, but great records in one-run games, unsustainable individual contributions, and tougher schedules are all considerations. With those criteria in mind, here are two teams who may not be able to sustain their first half success.

Cincinnati Reds

Early in the season, the Reds success seemed so unreasonable that I put no stock in it, but as the team remained well above .500 for a few months, I started to warm to the idea that the Reds might not be such a bad club. I automatically root for those affiliated with the Twins, so Wayne Krivsky is a personal favorite, and not just as a receptacle for the Twins trash. Griffey, Dunn, Harang and Encarnacion are all good players, and the team built itself from the ground up. That said, I think the Reds are the team most likely to fall apart in the second half of the season. Currently 47-44, the Reds lead the NL Wild Card race and trail St. Louis by only four games in the NL Central. Their 460 runs scored are best in the division and third best in the league, trailing only New York and Los Angeles. Unfortunately, the Reds continue to struggle preventing runs, much like they have for the past several years. The rotation has not been great after Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, but keep in mind that the pitchers’ ERAs will naturally look suboptimal when they have to pitch half of their games in the Great American Bandbox and in front of the seventh worst defense in the majors in terms of defensive efficiency. The bullpen has been a big part of the team’s failure to prevent runs, ranking in the bottom 10 in the majors in every meaningful category, and looked to be getting worse when Todd Coffey lost his mojo earlier this month. Indeed, relief pitching and defense were problems, but until recently, Krivsky was addressing them with appropriately measured restraint. Joe Mays and Rick White failed as pitching experiments, but Esteban Yan was cast off by the Angels and his given up a reasonable 7 runs in 15 innings pitched. Even picking up the version of Eddie Guardado that is more “every now and then” than he is “everyday” was worth a mildly intriguing pitching prospect. All of these moves seemed to hint at Krivsky’s proper understanding of building a bullpen out of cheap or spare parts. That is, until he became the latest victim of Jim Bowden’s transactional hyperactivity. Bowden continues to make bold move after bold move, much like the guy in your fantasy league who constantly proposes horrible trades in hopes that someone will either find one inexplicably attractive or else accept a trade to make him stop proposing them- call it management by erosion of the opposition. In this case, Bowden preyed on Krivsky’s lack of confidence in his bullpen, convincing the Reds to give up two of the pieces that make their offense as dangerous as it is by giving up some merely adequate bullpen innings. Replacing Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez with Chris Denorfia and Royce Clayton substantially downgrades two spots in the lineup, changing it from a championship offense to one that is only slightly above average and heavily reliant on Griffey’s cranky legs. A bullpen consisting of Coffey, Kent Mercker, David Weathers and in-season pickups Guardado, Yan, Bill Bray and Gary Majewski should be a small but meaningful step up, but the losses on offense definitely outweigh the benefits. For this trade to look reasonable 10 years from now, Bray will have to become a big time reliever, possibly even a near-star level closer, which is highly unlikely. Already outscored on the season, the Reds do not look like they are on the cusp of improvement. Instead, they could be one pulled hamstring (Griffey) away from a Baltimore-like second half tank job.

Oakland Athletics

Like with last year’s Dodgers, we will eventually have to stop talking about how good Oakland will be once they get all of their players on the field and start acknowledging that Beane built a team that is extremely injury prone. Yes, Frank Thomas, Milton Bradley, Mark Ellis, Rich Harden, Esteban Loaiza, and Justin Duchscherer have all missed time with injuries, but almost every one of those players could reasonably be expected to miss time with an injury. In the A’s defense, there is are strong arguments to be made that Bobby Crosby is not a .235/.298/.350 hitter, that Mark Kotsay will get on base at a better clip than .308 the rest of the way, and that Loaiza (6.34 ERA) has better days ahead. Still, the A’s are another team that has been outscored by its opponents on the season, and their second order record- equivalent runs scored and runs against, adjusted for player performance- is six games worse than their actual won-loss record, according to BP’s adjusted standings report. Overall, it is not so much that I think the A’s are about to start playing much worse than they are, but that without their best players playing well or at all (such as Crosby and Harden, and perhaps Zito after 7/31), they are going to have a hard time keeping pace with the rest of the division. Seattle has been better than anticipated, and the Rangers and Angels both have better adjusted records than the A’s today and stand to make gains with some roster turnover in the near future- Adam Eaton coming back for Texas and Howie Kendrick replacing Adam Kennedy for LAA. With their current run of performance, the A’s could finish with 83 or so wins, but they will have to be quite a bit better than that to win the division, especially with Mark Texeira and the Angels’ rotation showing signs of life. Before the season, I picked the A’s to win the World Series, a prediction that looks less and less likely unless Billy Beane works of deadline magic for a real outfield bat to stand in for Jay Payton or some pop from behind the plate instead of the slap-happy softballer formerly known as Jason Kendall. In any case, I do not believe that the lineup the team used to pound Boston yesterday is one that can win the AL West this year.

Deadline Deals That Make Sense

We have reached the time of year when the rumor mill starts spinning fast enough to generate power for a small metropolis. Mid-July until the first of August lacks dramatic sporting drama, so we naturally fill in the gaps by posing as many what-ifs as we can generate. Aubrey Huff started trading season in earnest this week when the Devil Rays shipped the former-stud lefty to Houston for a 25 year-old SS prospect and a pitcher whose upside is as a fifth starter. It seems to me that the trade came about two years too late for both teams- sure the Astros get Huff at a diminished price, but he is a diminished player and the team was thisclose to a championship last year, lacking consistent offense. Still, the Huff trade was the type of deal that made sense for both teams. The D-Rays needed more organizational depth so they could start generating fallback plans in case their high-potential prospects do not pan out. Huff had no place left in St. Pete’s first rebuilding project of the ACL (after Chuck Lamar) era, but he made some sense for Houston, who desperately needed to find a way to make righty pitchers notice them. This is the type of trade that interests me: it is feasible, constructive, and simple. We will hear a lot about Bobby Abreu and Barry Zito in the next two weeks, and one or both may even change jerseys, but the hype for such a trade so far outweighs the combination of its likelihood and its utility for all parties that I do not feel that I need to add any more fuel to the fire. Instead, I am interested in the types of trades that make the difference at the margins for teams with a lot to lose or a lot to gain. Remember that Geoff Blum was an unheralded trade deadline pickup for the White Sox last year before hitting the homerun that won the World Series. The year before that, the Red Sox picked up Dave Roberts at the deadline, and all anyone wanted to talk about was losing Nomar- that is, of course, until The Steal. Good GM’s plan for these contingencies and fill their little holes that can make a big difference in the most important moments.

Sensible trades:

Detroit acquires Matt Stairs from Kansas City for a B prospect: Detroit looks like a very safe bet to find some place in October, but if they want to play any further, they will have to take a page out of division rival Chicago’s text book and plug some additional lefty hitting into a heavily right handed lineup. Dmitri Young switch hits, but his status with the team likely depends on his status with the law, which is probably not the best situation for a key player. Curtis Granderson bats lefty, but beyond him, the lineup is exclusively right-handed. Stairs keeps climbing in age, but he seems to always hit righties well enough to go at least .260/.350/.420, which definitely has plenty of value in a platoon situation. The Tigers may have arrived as contenders earlier than most expected, but with older players like Pudge Rodriguez, Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers, they may as well use a little piece of their solid farm system to make a strong push. Besides, the Royals will not hold out for a full-on mortgaging of the team’s future to pick up Matt Stairs. We have come to the point in the season when it starts to be relevant to point out that flags fly forever (FFF), which applies here.

Texas acquires Kip Wells from Pittsburgh for a B-C prospect: Texas caught Oakland at the break, positioning themselves for a dogfight between three teams who have very noticeable flaws. Before the season, I believed that Oakland looked like the best team in baseball, but injuries to a huge percentage of their core has brought them to a very beatable level. Texas has an offense that has yet to hit its stride, but has stayed in the race with better pitching than most expected. Adam Eaton will rejoin the team at some point in the second half, function as a rotational upgrade coming off of the DL, but why stop there? Supposedly Wells can be had pretty cheaply, especially after his disastrous four start stint before the ASB. He has given up 23 ER in only 16.1 IP while walking 10 and striking out 7. Nonetheless, he is only 29, working his way back from an injury, and does not have a spot in Pittsburgh once one accounts for all of the kids. The Buccos would probably help with what is left on Wells’ contract if they can get anything in return, and Kip’s career tendency to throw 3 groundballs for every 2 flyballs will play would at the Bandbox at Arlington. Once again, without much risk involved, the Rangers have a lot to gain by winning the division, and Koronka and Rheinecker are not the names I would want to call when filling out an ALDS lineup card.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire Joe Randa from Pittsburgh for a B prospect
OR
LAD acquire Aaron Boone and Todd Hollandsworth from Cleveland for a B prospect: Perhaps neither swag is quite so tasty for the Dodgers, but they really cannot afford to flop into a playoff race as the wildcard leader and expect that Cesar Izturis’ bat will play at third. Izturis was a glove-first, bat-last type of player at SS, and that kind of equation does not work on the corners. Randa and Boone are not particularly desirable, but either would be a meaningful upgrade over Izturis, especially if they can find some ABs for someone else against tough righty pitchers. Ned Colletti seems to understand that he can trade his prospects for immediate reinforcements, even if the Dioner Navarro-Jae Seo for Toby Hall-Mark Hendrickson trade indicates that he does not know exactly how to do so effectively. As long as Aaron Sele stays in the rotation, chalk that up as another position of need for a team relying on plenty of rickety veterans for a couple of more months- Sele, Garciaparra, Drew, Lofton, Penny.

National Associations

I am back today with another installment of the randomly generated associations between my picks for the All-Star teams and bands or musicians of which they remind me. Good luck tracking my cognitive processes leading up to the selections; I doubt I will even be able to find that trace a few weeks from now.

C- Mike Piazza- Stevie Wonder: Brian McCann has been better this year, but Piazza is an all-time great singing a pretty solid swan song. Piazza and Stevie share the fact that a debilitating physical imperfection heavily influences their reputations: Piazza’s throwing arm and Stevie’s blindness (ok, that one was a stretch). Still, both have had utterly amazing careers gone by and seem to pop up over and over- Piazza at 12 AS games and Stevie at every sporting event or awards show with an open booking. One way or another, I feel that these two may each go down as something less than what he really was: Piazza as one of the two or three greatest catchers ever (probably after Bench and Berra), and Stevie as one of the best American singer-songwriters since Dylan.

1B- Albert Pujols- Eminem: The natural response would be something like The Beatles, but Pujols does not have that ephemeral sense about him. His greatness is very present, very contemporary. Maybe because he is so young and he seems so approachable, but Pujols speaking does not evoke past legends the way that Bonds does. Eminem, too, is essentially the biggest thing of right now. If either one fell off the face of the Earth tomorrow, it would make for a permanently compelling story, but not the sort of life-changing drama that followed the breakup of The Beatles, or if Bonds died in a car crash circa 2002. I recognize that the analogy is not terrible compelling, and I would listen to an argument for Led Zepplin, but I’ll stick with Eminem for now.

2B- Chase Utley- OAR: First of all, the name Chase fits beautifully with a jam band from rural Maryland. Additionally, I see Utley’s defining characteristic as the division between his immense popularity in certain circles and complete anonymity in others. Philly fans adore him and think of him as one of the top players in the game, but many baseball fans could easily and honestly forget to list him among the top five second basemen in baseball. In the same respect, mentioning OAR at a frat party would probably spark something akin to a Quaker religious ceremony, but bringing them up elsewhere would likely leave audible space for the crickets.

3B- Miguel Cabrera- Wyclef Jean: Versatile, gifted, underappreciated. Wyclef shows up on every third TV show related to music and hangs out with Angelina Jolie, but somehow maintains a pretty low profile. Same for Cabrera, how many players can put up an 1100 OPS in a major media market and receive virtually no attention. Plus, the whole Fugee/refugee thing may work when if the Marlins ever ditch south Florida. If the team moves, I advocate keeping the nickname to create baseball’s oxymoronic version of the Utah Jazz, either the Portland or San Antonio Marlins.

SS- Jose Reyes- Beyonce: Reyes is already popular and highly-regarded in scout circles, but he has a long way to go before he meets his potential. This year could be his version of Beyonce’s first solo album, where he goes crazy and shows why people always had such a fine opinion of him as a prospect. Like Beyonce, I believe that Reyes will be around for a long, long time and will pile up all sorts of awards. The obvious next step to superstardom is to co-star with Steve Martin in an ill-conceived remake of an old movie. How does this sound: Steve Martin plays a comically inept and updated urban version of the Lone Ranger. Jose Reyes plays Tonto, his motorcycle-riding sidekick.

OF- Carlos Beltran- Steely Dan: Ah, redemption! Beltran’s comeback trail did not wind through several decades and an extended period of obscurity, but he shares the band’s all-around ability and far-reaching appeal- he is the rare “five tool player” who scouts and statheads agree is underrated, much like music critics and casual fans can all appreciate Steely Dan without the band ever reaching megastar status. As great as Beltran has been in the past, he is currently posting a career-best .327 EQA and could finish with his best season to date for a team that is clearly the best in its league: an obvious All-Star.

OF- Jason Bay- Rush: Both are Canadian- worth noting- and both perform in a way that is more appealing to diehard fans than casual ones. Casual fans do not appreciate Neil Peart as God on drums, or the fact that Geddy Lee plays world-class bass and keyboards (with his feet!) while singing simultaneously in concert, instead choosing to decry his unique vocals as annoying. Bay faces similar anti-Canuck sentiment, missing out on positive praise for being on a terrible team that nobody follows, but he has not missed a game in two years, hits for power, hits for average, runs well, and plays well in the field. I considered writing a cheesy joke about how he’s not in the “Limelight,” but I’ll just let you fill in the blanks.

OF- Bobby Abreu- Warren Zevon: Two personal favorites who do not/did not get deserved attention simply for being obscure. Zevon wrote dozens of songs about sex, drugs, and general depravity, and not in the “Sex, drugs and rock n roll! Party!” sense, but more in the depressing “been there, done that,” sense. Abreu, too, has stories to tell, starting in Houston, and getting drafted by Tampa Bay in their expansion draft before making Kevin Stocker the answer to the “Who did the D-Rays acquire for Bobby Abreu in a one-for-one trade?” Even in Philadelphia, a major market, he has always been subservient to Schilling, Thome, Utley or Howard. Like Cleveland, Philadelphia is so weak at a few positions (namely SP) that they can start two All-Stars without being close to contention.

SP- Bronson Arroyo- Bronson Arroyo: Indeed, Bronson Arroyo is the professional musician who most reminds me of Bronson Arroyo. Ok, that’s a copout, and he does not even deserve to start.

SP- Brandon Webb- Bruce Springsteen: Glavine is the popular pick, but he is 22nd in baseball in starting pitcher VORP, arguably less deserving than a full three guys named Chris (Capuano, Carpenter, Young). Instead, I’m choosing Webb, who uses a tested and true approach- his sinker- to grind out one strong start after another. His style contrasts sharply with Santana’s which would make for an interesting pitching duel for two whole innings before Mark Redman and Brian Fuentes enter. The Boss, like Webb, knows his limits and stays well within them. He writes songs that make people enjoy not being wealthy, and he sings them in a muddled garble. Definitely music’s version of the sinker.

RP- Trevor Hoffman- Tom Petty: Everybody likes Hoffman; everybody likes Tom Petty, but it is difficult to find a die-hard fan of either party. Also, I am partial to the notion that the whole is somehow less than the sum of its parts in both cases. Hoffman has a jillion saves and has not had a bad year since before Hootie and the Blowfish were popular. The ERA (1.16) is the only thing that looks different this year, an effect of some luck, some defense, and some extra grass in his home field. And anyone who watched the NBA playoffs knows that there are way more recognizable Tom Petty songs than anyone cares to mention. Ask someone how many memorable songs Tom Petty has recorded, and they will probably be able to name five or six, but show someone a track list of his greatest hits CD and they will recognize about 15 songs. I respect longevity and consistency, enough, in this case, to pick Hoffman as an All-Star.

One-Liners

Two fun Twins-related notes for Friday morning:

First, on a Baseball Think Factory thread about Pierzynski beating out Liriano in the All-Star Final Man ballot, someone quipped, "Does this mean Brian Sabean made a good trade?"

Also, let me be the first to throw my suggestion in the nickname box: Pat "Knights Who Go" Neshek.

Starry-Eyed Surprise

Nearing my favorite time of the year, the 2006 ASB (initials of midsummer’s classic and yours truly), there are several types of columns I could write. I could simply list my All-Star ballot, a tempting possibility considering my work schedule of late. Taking on a bit more responsibility, I could complete the rote task of listing some stats, making brief comparisons and working in a pop culture reference here and there, but I’m feeling a little saucy. I had the idea of writing from the standpoint of a Twins fan, outraged that Mauer lost in the voting, that Liriano was cast to the Final Man ballot (I take pride in my 20-odd votes, but there is room for improvement), that nobody recognized that Nathan’s having his best season despite less gaudy save totals, that Justin Morneau’s superior season lost out to Paul Konerko’s relationship with Ozzie Guillen, and that Johan Santana was inconsequentially omitted from ESPN.com’s poll about how should start the All-Star Game. But I am not quite so bitter, since Liriano will probably make the team, leaving only Nathan with any gripe after losing to a stellar group of closers- Jenks, Papelbon, Rivera, Ryan. Instead, I will expand beyond baseball, listing not only my All-Star starting lineups, but each player’s most similar band or musician, along with something resembling a justification of the comparison. Naturally, my musical selection will be heavily weighted toward bands that occupy my consciousness, largely crowding out the following genres: country, punk, pop. Sorry.

American League

C- Joe Mauer- Franz Ferdinand: Both are young, widely respected across diverse groups of fans, and both have room to grow into greater fame and fortune. There is little left that Twins fans need to hear about Mauer, as he clearly beats out Pudge Rodriguez in every category but past success, so I will leave you with a trivia question: Of the two- Joe Mauer and Franz Ferdinand- which is named after a former archduke of Austria? Good luck with that one.

1B- Travis Hafner- The Velvet Underground: Wildly and uncommonly talented, yet not exactly by the book. Many diehard music fans cannot get on Lou Reed, just like Hafner’s streaky hitting and platoon splits cause some to overlook the fact that he has become one of the game’s premier players. He is no more a first baseman than the Velvet Underground, but MLB lists him there on the ballot, and he has out-hit the universe this season, leading the majors in VORP by nearly six runs. He belongs on team, but like the Velvet Underground, it is not easy to find a place for him.

2B- Brian Roberts- Shania Twain: Hear me out. Both were around for awhile, seemingly settling into a comfortable niche before exploding briefly into megastars. Roberts obliterated his elbow, Twain had children, and each settled into a diminished but respectable role. The O’s second baseman will probably never match his HR production from early last year, but he gains a big advantage over real AS Jose Lopez with the extra 70 points of OBP. That Twain-Roberts career arc is an interesting one though, even for a long time with one sharp spike in the middle, sort of like the profile of a part hat on a pancake. I’m going to pretend like that metaphor was perfectly natural.

3B- Alex Rodriguez- Britney Spears: Perhaps Britney’s star has faded to the Liz Taylor special, tabloid-only status, but I once contemplated her success at selling records the same way I know ponder A-Rod’s jersey sales- who buys this stuff? Both of them took loads of crap for striking a nerve with the general public, albeit the exact opposite nerve. I say A-Rod is due for a monster year around 2008-2009 for a team like the Dodgers or Braves, but Britney’s equivalent octuple platinum comeback album is not such a good bet. If Britney is A-Rod, then who is the sports equivalent of Kevin Federline? I’m going to go with Penny “Papozao” Hardaway.

SS- Derek Jeter- U2: I wanted to pick Miguel Tejada so I could talk about how history conspired against him, just like it did The Who, but then I noticed that Jeter has a 60 point OBP advantage. I think this comparison works: both have done good work (Jeter’s 1999, U2’s early work like Achtung Baby), but both have produced the same over-hyped garbage over and over to the point of nausea. Moreover, both Jeter and Bono need to stop worshipping everything about themselves and pretending their appeal transcends the game/art form. At least we can always hold historical mistakes against them: Jeter dating Mariah Carey during her Glitter/completely batshit insane phase and Bono singing on “Do They Know It’s Christmas?”

OF- Grady Sizemore- Van Morrison: Sizemore’s .304/.379/.544 might not jump off the page, but he does everything well, including playing plus defense in center and stealing 13 of 15 bases on the season. Maybe Cleveland does not deserve two starters, and maybe I am biased against Chicago for selecting Hafner/Sizemore over Thome/Konerko/Dye, but if that bothers you, shouldn’t you be reading Hawk Harrelson’s website about how Jon Garland is nearing a breakthrough on cold fusion and Juan Uribe is a really good-looking guy, but not in a gay way? Anyway, the only support for this comparison is that I thought both Sizemore and Morrison were black until seeing otherwise.

OF- ICHIRO!- Beck: These two share quirky talents, incredibly dedicated fans, and elicit a slightly uncomfortable reaction from middle America. Also, I tend to believe that each one is just slightly overrated. In any case, Ichiro is one of the most fun players to watch, so we might as well put him on the list. Hitting .355 has some value after all, and he does it almost every year.

OF- Manny Ramirez- Guns ‘N’ Roses: Both are MIA, so…

OF (replacement)- Jermaine Dye- Jay Z: Like Roberts, Dye has followed an interesting career arc, although I am not sure Jay Z is the best approximation in the music world. Both flashed incredible talent right away, Dye for KC and Atlanta, Jay Z on Reasonable Doubt. Then, they cashed in, but failed to do their best work, Dye in Oakland, Jay Z on Blueprint, Vol. 1, and Vol. 2. Finally, Dye achieved his greatest success later by finding the right situation in Chicago with a short porch in left and a good medical staff. Similarly, Jay Z took control of the Black Album and regained critical acclaim, finishing his career with one of the best hip-hop albums in recent memory.

SP- Johan Santana- Carlos Santana: Both are widely recognized as SUPERstars, beyond the regular application of the phrase. Johan’s Cy Young and Carlos’s Grammys validate the amazing work each one has done. Nonetheless, I am convinced that both would be much bigger stars if they spent more time self-promoting. Everyone talks about Torii as the face of the Twins, but when Johan probably should have assumed that mantle two years ago, he actively deferred. Maybe it is a language barrier, maybe a subtle hint of racism, I do not know. Oh, they have the same last name you say? Hmmm, what a coincidence.

CL- B.J. Ryan- Lynard Skynard: The story about how “B.J.” is a redneck perversion of “Bo Junior” clinched his association with the greatest redneck band of all time. Also, I have a feeling that, like Skynard and many other electric closers, Ryan will go out in a blaze of glory before anyone really expects it.

The AL will be enough for today. As you may have noticed, I picked very few players having career years in their peak seasons. I prefer to fill up the All-Star team with up and coming superstars like Sizemore and Mauer who fans will follow for years to come, or established guys who will likely end up in the Hall of Fame. It is not the right or wrong way to approach it, just my preference. I will finish up with the National League All-Stars next time.